Prayers - 
[Mr Speaker in the Chair]

Virtual participation in proceedings commenced (Order, 4 June).
[NB: [V] denotes a Member participating virtually.]

Oral
Answers to
Questions

Defence

The Secretary of State was asked—

Veterans: Support

Gareth Davies: What steps his Department is taking to support veterans.

Chris Clarkson: What steps his Department is taking to support veterans.

Selaine Saxby: What steps his Department is taking to support veterans.

Johnny Mercer: The Ministry of Defence and the Office for Veterans’ Affairs are working together with colleagues across Government to improve access to social housing, employment and healthcare, as well as digitising the Veterans UK services. Defence Transition Services is delivering tailored support to service leavers and their families. The Government have delivered a veterans’ railcard and have announced a guaranteed interview scheme in the civil service and a national insurance holiday for veterans’ employers.

Gareth Davies: RecruitME in Grantham is a specialist recruitment business run by veterans for veterans. Will the Minister join me in congratulating it on its recent award for services to veterans, and will he outline what the Government are doing to encourage more employers to hire a hero?

Johnny Mercer: I pay tribute to my hon. Friend and the company he mentions. I am clear, and this Government are clear, that the single biggest factor in improving the life chances of any veteran in this country, and their family, is having a job. The Government are fundamentally changing what it means to be a veteran by offering a national insurance contribution holiday, guaranteed interviews and things like that. Working with partners in the private sector, we will make this the best country in the world to be a veteran.

Chris Clarkson: I thank the Minister for his answer. The protections in the Overseas Operations (Service Personnel and Veterans) Bill have been warmly welcomed in constituencies such as mine, but obviously we also have veterans of Operation Banner, so will the Minister reiterate the Department’s intention to bring forward the same protections for people who served in Northern Ireland?

Johnny Mercer: I am happy to reiterate again the Government’s position that those who served on Op Banner will be entitled to equal treatment from the protections that we are bringing forward on Third Reading of the overseas operations Bill tomorrow. I am clear that this is the first Government who are actually dealing with this very knotty and difficult issue. Northern Ireland veterans can be confident that we will not forget them—we will not leave them behind.

Selaine Saxby: Will my hon. Friend join me in congratulating the Veterans Charity, which ran a Halloween-themed charity car wash in my North Devon  constituency and raised almost £500 this weekend? Will he also join me in recognising the vital co-operation between Government and the charity sector, with the Veterans Charity having helped 650 veterans this year alone?

Johnny Mercer: I pay tribute to all the groups up and down this country who work tirelessly every day to improve the lot of our veterans, particularly the ones in my hon. Friends’ constituencies. There is a shift in the provision of veterans’ services in this country towards more of a balance between the third sector and statutory provision, but we will always require a blend of the two, and I pay tribute to my hon. Friend for her lobbying for this cause.

Armed Forces: Recruitment and Retention

Desmond Swayne: What steps his Department is taking to recruit and retain armed forces personnel.

Johnny Mercer: We have a range of measures supporting recruitment and retention, and continue to refine the armed forces offer. Measures include competitive pay, financial incentives, flexible service, and retention-positive accommodation programmes.

Desmond Swayne: What is the Minister’s estimate of the quality of new recruits? Hopefully they are better than we were.

Johnny Mercer: I can safely assure my right hon. Friend that standards have risen significantly since he and I were accepted into the military. We make no bones about it: the standards to get into our military are some of the highest in comparison with our peer nations. We employ some of the finest people this nation has to offer, and under this Government we are seeing a conscious shift towards how we look after them and value them as our finest asset.

Covid-19: Preparations and Support

Christian Wakeford: What preparations his Department has made to support the NHS and other public bodies with their response to covid-19 during winter 2020-21.

Jacob Young: What preparations his Department has made to support the NHS and other public bodies with their response to covid-19 during winter 2020-21.

Andrew Jones: What preparations his Department has made to support the NHS and other public bodies with their response to covid-19 during winter 2020-21.

Ben Wallace: As part of the national covid-19 response, Defence has supported NHS trusts in a variety of ways, with the distribution of personal protective equipment and diagnostic equipment, the planning, construction and staffing of Nightingale hospitals, and service personnel to conduct testing. We have established a winter support force of approximately 7,500 to ensure our continued support throughout the winter 2020-21 period.

Christian Wakeford: I welcome the Prime Minister’s comments about the armed forces using their logistical expertise in helping to combat the virus. However, can my right hon. Friend assure us that that will not come at the expense of the armed forces’ vital work defending the nation?

Ben Wallace: Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, I have ensured both that we have supported our colleagues across Government in tackling the virus, and that our critical defence outputs have continued to be fulfilled every single day. The continuous at-sea deterrent, our Royal Air Force quick reaction alert force and a range of other critical capabilities, and our operations, have all been and will continue to be safeguarded.

Jacob Young: Our armed forces have been instrumental in testing for covid-19, and soon they will be supporting the roll-out of mass testing in Redcar too. Does the Minister agree that in the run-up to Remembrance Sunday, we should focus not just on the loss of life in battle but on the commitment our armed forces make to serve our communities every day?

Ben Wallace: Throughout the covid support force, the armed forces have committed personnel and time and effort in helping the rest of government to meet this challenge, including local government.
With regards to remembrance, despite the covid-19 restrictions in place this year, every effort will be made to ensure that the occasion can be marked appropriately and that the contribution of our service personnel is recognised. We should all take time this week to reflect not only on the sacrifices of past conflicts, but on the sacrifices of and work that our armed forces personnel are doing right now all over the United Kingdom in making sure that this country gets through the worst of covid.

Andrew Jones: The role played by our forces in the construction of the Yorkshire and the Humber Nightingale hospital in Harrogate was very impressive. They brought engineering, logistical and organisational expertise to the project, working alongside the NHS trust and Harrogate convention centre. Will my right hon. Friend focus on the additional, complementary skills that our forces can bring to combatting this virus, particularly the speed with which they can act and be deployed?

Ben Wallace: My hon. Friend highlights the important effort that the military made in setting up the Nightingale in Harrogate. I visited it during the set-up time, and it is also welcome that that Nightingale has been used for other NHS tasks, which is an important step in building NHS capacity where it is under pressure elsewhere. Of course, we should make sure that we always bring to bear the best of our armed forces to help wherever we can right across the board. Resilience is Defence’s middle name, and it is that key part of our skill that we are bringing to support most of government across the country.

Stephen Morgan: We welcome the recent Government announcement from the other place of the 7,000 personnel who will be brought to readiness ahead of the winter period. In light of that, does the Secretary of State agree that Government should keep the House regularly updated on the numbers  of personnel being deployed, how they are being deployed, and if any further strengthening of the numbers of personnel deployed will be necessary as we progress through the winter period? Can he provide an update now?

Ben Wallace: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for raising that point, because I am very happy to inform the House on a periodic basis, perhaps every two weeks or weekly, of the MACA—military aid to the civil authorities—tasks that are being fulfilled. I can place that in the House of Commons Library. In the previous lockdown, we committed more than 10,000 troops. The number is 7,500 at the moment, but we always keep that under review. During the last lockdown, we actually only used at most about 4,000 or 5,000 at any one time, but of course we stand by to help. At the moment, there are over 20 MACAs in place and being used, and as we speak, we are examining some significant asks from a number of local authorities.

Strategic Defence Review: Timescale

Alec Shelbrooke: What his proposed timescale is for the next strategic defence review.

Ben Wallace: The Government announced on 21 October that they will conduct a one-year spending review for 2021-22. The implications of that decision for the integrated review are currently being considered. The Government will provide an update to Parliament once this has been decided.

Alec Shelbrooke: At the annual NATO Parliamentary Assembly in 2019, a report was published about the growing maritime threat from Russia. Will my right hon. Friend meet me and other members of the Assembly so that we may feed into the review of forward and ongoing naval demands for the foreseeable future?

Ben Wallace: I congratulate my right hon. Friend on his work in leading the UK delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. The UK, along with NATO allies, takes the maritime threat from Russia very seriously. This tempo and assertiveness of our operational output will continue for as long as Russia continues to pose a threat and challenge to freedom of navigation. My hon. Friend the Minister for the Armed Forces would be delighted to meet him and his colleagues to discuss it further.

John Healey: As we belatedly go into this second national lockdown, can we as a House pay tribute to the role of the armed forces? I say to the Defence Secretary that his commitment to update the House regularly on the use of the armed forces in this second lockdown is very welcome. If he is willing to make further use of the forces this time, this House and the public will back him. I also pay tribute to the professionalism of the special forces who took back control of the Nave Andromeda last week. With the integrated review in mind, this is a timely reminder that while high-tech weapons are essential, our highly trained British troops are indispensable. The Secretary of State promised at the Dispatch Box “a multi-year integrated review”, with
“a four-year spending settlement…for capital and a three-year settlement for revenue”.—[Official Report, 21 September 2020; Vol. 680, c. 607.]
When will it be published?

Ben Wallace: I am grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for paying tribute to the armed forces. He is, of course, right that the armed forces have gone above and beyond in making sure that we get through this covid process. Because of their training and the skills that they possess, we can answer the call to help with resilience throughout the country. We will not hesitate to take advantage of all their skills. The demand must come from the ground up—from local authorities or, indeed, the rest of Government. We stand by our offer to any part of Government or the devolved Governments to help in that struggle.
As I said to my right hon. Friend the Member for Elmet and Rothwell (Alec Shelbrooke), the integrated review will be resolved; where we are going to go with it will be resolved. We are thinking through the impact of the Treasury’s announcement that there will be a one-year spending settlement. Once we have thought through those consequences and worked through the implications, I will report straight to the House on what that means.

John Healey: Is it not the regrettable truth that the Chancellor has cut the ground from under the Defence Secretary and our British forces? The Secretary of State rightly said that previous Tory defence reviews have
“failed because they were never in step with the spending plans”.—[Official Report, 6 July 2020; Vol. 678, c. 647.]
They were a cover for cuts, which is why our armed forces are nearly 12,000 short of the strength promised in the 2015 review; essential equipment, from new tanks to the new radar system protecting our aircraft carrier, is long overdue; and the defence budget has a £13 billion black hole. A fully fledged, fully funded strategic defence and security review is needed now more than ever. What does he say about the failure to deliver on that?

Ben Wallace: I think the right hon. Gentleman delivered the speech for a potential future statement. No one has said yet that the integrated review will be delayed or curtailed. What we are saying is that we are studying the implications of the one-year spending review on that. Once we have worked through those implications, he is of course welcome to make his points across the Dispatch Box. I know that he is keen to make those points, but I respectfully suggest that he waits until we have thought through the implications. Then we can have that discussion in Parliament.

Stewart McDonald: Ahead of Remembrance Sunday at the end of the week, we wish well all of those organising events in a different fashion. The day does not lose its meaning at all.
On the integrated review, I am sure that the Secretary of State is more frustrated than most. As an avid reader of National Audit Office reports, he will know that pushing spending to the right will ultimately leave him with less money to spend. A multi-year settlement, as long advocated by SNP Members, would allow future-proofed planning. Can he tell us what the consequences of the postponement are for the future nuclear warheads system and, in particular, the W93?

Ben Wallace: As I said to the right hon. Member for Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey), the first thing is to wait until we have worked through the consequences of the one-year spending announcement by the Treasury. I, or indeed the Prime Minister, will then be happy to come and update the House about what that means for the integrated review and the consequences that follow.

Stewart McDonald: Unfortunately for the Secretary of State, we can all see where this is going, as he knows as well as we do. In April, he wrote to members of Congress stating that
“support to the W93 program in this budget cycle is critical to the success of our replacement warhead programme and to the long-term viability of the UK’s nuclear deterrent.”
We read in the press about his Department’s alarm that a victory for the Democratic nominee in tomorrow’s election could stymie congressional and US support for that programme. As his Treasury and UK alliances have let him down, does he agree with Tom McTague’s assessment in The Atlantic today that
“if the election of one president or another is an existential challenge, then perhaps the issue is Britain’s strategy itself”?

Ben Wallace: I do not agree at all, and I think the hon. Gentleman may be slightly confused because, whether it is one year or multi-year, it does not mean to say that the defence budget goes to zero. We will still have a £41 billion budget—one of the biggest budgets in Europe—which will allow us to continue with not only running the armed forces but investing in them. Of course, the challenge that we have always been open about is the black hole in the overall finances, which we will have to take steps to meet. I am sorry to disappoint some of his anti-nuclear colleagues, but that does not mean the end of the nuclear deterrent or the submarines. The budget will not resort to zero after the one year. We should first work through what one year will mean, versus multi-year. It is not the first one-year funding settlement, and it is not the first defence review that is trying to fix underfunding and over-ambition. I distinctly remember serving in the armed forces when Labour’s ones did exactly the same.

Tobias Ellwood: I can tell the Secretary of State what a one-year funding settlement will do: it will make the integrated review next to meaningless. The Prime Minister gave me a direct assurance that the integrated review would not be delayed. If “global Britain” is an instruction and not a strap line, this review is the road map to how we advance our defence posture to support our foreign policy ambitions. Any delay to its publication with its full spending commitments will send a poor signal to the world that we are absolutely serious about re-establishing our global credentials and could prompt questions about our justification to retain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. May I urge the Defence Secretary to complete this review as promised, with a multi-year funding settlement, taken in isolation if necessary, if the spending review is to be delayed?

Ben Wallace: My right hon. Friend raises some interesting observations. First, I ask him, as I have asked others, to wait until we see the implications of the Treasury’s announcement of the one-year review. Until that time, speculation is just speculation, but of course he might like to take his message to the next Treasury questions, where Treasury Ministers, too, can hear his views of the impact.

Armed Forces: Covid-19 Response

Nicholas Fletcher: What steps the armed forces are taking to support the response to the covid-19 outbreak.

Ben Wallace: Defence continues to play a vital role in the response to the covid-19 outbreaks. Defence is currently supporting 34 MACA tasks, including providing environmental health technicians to support Liverpool city region and planning teams to support Nottingham City Council and the Lancashire local resilience forum.

Nicholas Fletcher: What role does my right hon. Friend see the armed forces playing in the event that a vaccine is to be rolled out?

Ben Wallace: Defence has already deployed military personnel to the vaccine taskforce, with personnel supporting central organisation within the task and exploring how defence could bring logistics support to the national roll-out of a future vaccine.

Defence Exports: NATO

Aaron Bell: What steps his Department is taking to support defence exports to NATO partners.

Jeremy Quin: The MOD leads on strategic export campaigns to our NATO partners, and from my personal contacts, including recent trips to Estonia and Poland, I know how respected UK military kit and innovation are. We work closely across Government to support British exports and western security.

Aaron Bell: I recently had the pleasure of meeting the chief executive of Meighs & Westleys at its site in Newcastle under Lyme, where it manufactures high-integrity castings for the UK naval supply chain. It is already exporting 5% directly to the United States and another 5% through intermediaries. Will my hon. Friend praise the company for its export success so far, and will he work with the Secretary of State for International Trade to encourage further export success in the future?

Jeremy Quin: I absolutely congratulate the company on its successes, both at home and overseas. I work closely with colleagues in the Department for International Trade, particularly in the defence and security exports team, and I will happily, via my hon. Friend, introduce the company to that team to see what they can do to assist it.

British Shipbuilding Support

Peter Gibson: What steps his Department is taking to support the development of British shipbuilding.

Ben Wallace: As shipbuilding tsar, I am working with Cabinet colleagues to supercharge the British shipbuilding industry. Driven by the ministerial shipbuilding working group, in the past 12 months the Government have signed the contract for five Type 31 vessels to be built in Rosyth, developed a maritime enterprise export plan to pursue export opportunities that will hopefully deliver state-of-the-art  British ships to our global allies, and launched a major analysis of the skills required in the broader maritime sector through the Maritime Skills Commission.

Peter Gibson: My father worked as a shipwright at Smith’s dock on Teesside, and I know that the UK has a proud history as one of the greatest shipbuilding nations in the world. As we leave the EU, may I ask my right hon. Friend what steps he is taking to ensure that all parts of the UK benefit from shipbuilding opportunities supporting the military?

Ben Wallace: The Government’s ambitious shipbuilding agenda is reinvigorating this industry, including where my hon. Friend’s father worked. We are working to review old yards, to diversify the industry’s portfolio to promote smaller innovative vessels, and to strengthen the national supply chain, which underpins this. We will support tens of thousands of jobs across the UK, securing benefits for every corner of the Union and bringing shipbuilding back home to the UK. We are intending to use as many of our defence contracts as possible to incentivise investment by the owners of yards and, indeed, to invest in the workforces.

Khalid Mahmood: Will the Secretary of State heed the pleas of his Back Benchers and listen to the shadow Secretary of State’s recent “Built in Britain” strategy for the defence industry? I reiterate: follow the shadow Secretary of State’s strategy to ensure that the UK engineering and manufacturing industry endures the covid recession; invest in British engineering and manufacturing, in British people and in the British economy.

Ben Wallace: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, because I agree with everything he said; that is what we have been doing. We will invest, where we can, in UK equipment. We also sometimes have to balance the urgent operational need of our service personnel: if there is something they need now or in the very short term and we simply do not have the capability to deliver it, we will sometimes have to look where we can to get them the best equipment. There is always a fine balance between making sure our forces have the very best at the very moment and long-term investment. I am determined that we invest both in the people who use our equipment in the MOD and in our industry as far as possible across the board.

Veterans Charities: Covid-19 Support

Cat Smith: What support his Department is providing to veterans’ charities during the covid-19 outbreak.

Chi Onwurah: What support his Department is providing to veterans’ charities during the covid-19 outbreak.

Kim Johnson: What support his Department is providing to veterans’ charities during the covid-19 outbreak.

Kate Osborne: What support his Department is providing to veterans’ charities during the covid-19 outbreak.

Gerald Jones: What support his Department is providing to veterans’ charities during the covid-19 outbreak.

Johnny Mercer: The Government have been proactive in providing support to the charity sector in response to the covid-19 pandemic. The MOD and the Office for Veterans’ Affairs have played a leading role in this effort by providing £6 million in funding for the armed forces community through the covid impact fund.

Cat Smith: In June, the Office for National Statistics reported that almost one in five adults were likely to experience some form of depression during the covid-19 pandemic. Given that service and veterans’ charities have seen a spike in demand for their services, can I ask what steps the Department is taking to support veterans, serving personnel and service family members during this very difficult time?

Johnny Mercer: It is completely accepted that this period of lockdown and the lockdown that is coming present particular challenges for a veterans community that, in some small parts, may be struggling with the situation. We have worked hard to go down the pathway of blending the statutory and state provision, working with our third sector to make sure that people are being looked after, on time, in suitable care pathways. We have more to do, but we are a lot better than we used to be and I am confident that we will be the best country in the world in which to be an armed forces veteran in due course.

Chi Onwurah: The north-east sends a higher proportion of people into the armed forces than any other region and we are proud of our veterans. Forward Assist helps them to transition into civilian life. When it moved online, it found that referrals quadrupled, with those coming from as far afield as Germany, and there was overwhelming demand for mental health support. It needs funding to improve its digital infrastructure and find mental health professionals to provide support, the need for which will go up again, with the second lockdown. Will the Minister provide that?

Johnny Mercer: I pay tribute to Tony and all of the team at Forward Assist, who do an incredible job in the north-east and are a good template for others to follow across the country. More money is going into veterans’ mental health than ever before, in terms of the transition liaison service, the complex treatment centre and the high intensity service that we are bringing on board later this year. We are always happy to look at doing more, but I am confident: the need is expanding and we are meeting a great deal of it at this time.

Kim Johnson: The Liverpool Veterans headquarters has seen a significant increase in demand for its services throughout this pandemic and especially for mental health support. This situation is likely to worsen in the coming months and the support this local charity offers will be in greater demand. The resources it has are stretched beyond capacity and the £6 million just alluded to is not enough. Can the Minister explain how he will redress this shortfall?

Johnny Mercer: By using the transition liaison service, the complex treatment service and the high intensity service. Those are the three frameworks through which all mental healthcare pathways for veterans in this country will go. There is an opportunity for third-sector companies, such as Forward Assist and the others that have been mentioned, to bid into those programmes—indeed, they are already running some of the programmes in the north-west and north-east. That is the future: a blending of third sector and statutory provision. There is resource in the sector and we need to do more to make it easier for people to understand, but I am confident of the way ahead.

Kate Osborne: Each death by suicide is a tragedy. Suicide is of great concern to the military and veterans community in my constituency of Jarrow and throughout the country. Will the Minister outline the scope of the Department’s study on the cause of death of military personnel who were deployed on combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan? When will the study be published?

Johnny Mercer: We currently have a number of studies going on. This country has traditionally been a poor collector of data when it comes to veterans’ affairs. We are looking at a cohort study of 20,000 people who went through Iraq and Afghanistan and what happened in their lives. We are also looking into each individual who takes their own life and studying the 12 months prior to that incident to work out whether there was anything that any Government or third-sector provision could have done to intervene. I accept that we come from a low base when it comes to data, but that is now changing and I hope we be able to do the best job that we can in fighting veteran suicide.

Gerald Jones: The Minister will know about the recent announcements of job losses at Help for Heroes, in addition to the closure of all but one of its recovery centres because of a reduction in funding as a result of covid-19. As that is the case for one of the UK’s biggest household names, which is under huge financial pressure and having to make such difficult decisions, what further support will the Government give to service and welfare charities to fill the gaps in the coming months? We know that the demand is there.

Johnny Mercer: The hon. Gentleman is right to raise this issue. I spend every day fighting to get more money into the sector. The veterans care sector is changing, and aspects of it needed to change. We have seen a decrease in giving as the overt nature of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan has faded, yet the demand continues to go up. That delta is being met through the new programmes that I have outlined. There is always more to do and I am happy to speak to the hon. Gentleman outside the Chamber to hear his particular concerns.

Sharon Hodgson: At the previous Defence questions, the Minister said:
“For too long we have over-relied on the third sector”—[Official Report, 21 September 2020; Vol. 680, c. 611.]
when it comes to veterans’ care, and I totally agree. As far back as June, Cobseo reported that one in 10 armed forces charities will have to close in the next 12 months as a result of coronavirus. The pressures will only intensify with the second lockdown imminent, so what  urgent action will the Minister take to ensure that no gaps in charity provision and vital support arise over the next four weeks?

Johnny Mercer: I want to be clear with the hon. Lady. A rationalisation and professionalism is definitely currently going on in the veterans’ care charity sector, and in respect of many aspects that needed to happen. My concern is veterans, the provision for them and what it looks like to the veteran. We are working hard to bring together seamlessly the panoply of care, whether it is in the third sector or statutory provision, and we will get there. There are financial challenges, but I am confident that we can meet them and that this country will be the best place in the world to be an armed forces veteran.

Veterans: Vexatious Legal Claims

Stephen Metcalfe: What steps his Department is taking to protect veterans from vexatious legal claims.

Johnny Mercer: We are unstinting in our admiration of and gratitude for our armed forces, who perform exceptional feats in incredibly difficult circumstances to protect this country. We rightly expect the highest standards of our service personnel, and we owe them justice and fairness. We have introduced the Overseas Operations (Service Personnel and Veterans) Bill to help to tackle vexatious claims and end the cycle of re-investigations against our armed forces personnel and veterans. The Bill’s Third Reading and Report stage are tomorrow.

Stephen Metcalfe: I thank my hon. Friend for his response. Can he give me and the whole House assurances that veterans’ rights to claim against the MOD will in turn remain protected?

Johnny Mercer: Yes. The majority of personal injury and clinical negligence claims by service personnel and veterans against the MOD do not relate directly to overseas operations so will be unaffected by the Bill. Veterans will still be able to bring claims relating to overseas operations against the MOD within a reasonable timeframe. For example, in the event of a late diagnosis, service personnel and veterans will be able to bring personal injury claims against the MOD for up to six years from their date of knowledge.

Overseas Operations: Civil Claims

Mark Jenkinson: What assessment he has made of the potential effect of the overseas operations Bill on the ability of service personnel to make civil claims against his Department.

Johnny Mercer: The Overseas Operations (Service Personnel and Veterans) Bill will not prevent service personnel and veterans from bringing personal injury claims against the Ministry of Defence in relation to overseas operations within six years. Historically, we assess that the vast majority—around 94%—have done so already for claims relating to overseas operations. We will, of course, aim to ensure that everybody in the armed forces community is made aware of their right to bring claims and of changes to the relevant time limits for doing so in relation to overseas operations.

Mark Jenkinson: I thank the Minister for his answer. Does he agree that the rhetoric around exemptions from torture mislead colleagues and the public and only serve to misrepresent the purposes of this long overdue Bill?

Emma Lewell-Buck: Did you write that for him?

Johnny Mercer: No, but let me be really clear on these issues around torture. Nobody on this side of the House, or on whatever side of the House they are, would want to reduce our safeguards against torture. We have to be realistic about what this country has put its servicemen and women through in terms of historical allegations. Credible allegations will always be investigated. It is not right to say that it is almost impossible to prosecute, and people peddling that view know it to be untrue. I am happy to work with anybody to improve this Bill, but we must operate in the real world.

Veterans: Welfare Service

Stuart Anderson: What recent discussions he has had with Cabinet colleagues on providing an effective welfare service for veterans.

Johnny Mercer: The MOD’s Veterans Welfare Service provides advice and information on areas such as health, statutory benefits and pensions to all ex-service personnel and their families. Other areas of veterans’ welfare, such as health and benefits, are the responsibility of the respective Departments, and my officials work closely with them to ensure a joined-up approach.

Stuart Anderson: What steps is the Minister taking to remove negative stigma around mental health issues for veterans?

Johnny Mercer: I pay tribute to my hon. Friend for his tireless campaigning on these issues. It is true to say that we are light years away from where we were, but there is still more work to do. The vast majority of people and families of those who have taken their own lives have not spoken out and have not reached out for help, and that remains the biggest challenge in fighting the issue of veterans’ suicide. We have made great progress and I pay tribute to all those who have come with us on that journey, but it is clear that we have more to do and I am determined to lead that fight.

Overseas Operations: Negligence and  Personal Injury Claims

Bell Ribeiro-Addy: What assessment he has made of the potential effect of the overseas operations Bill on the number of veterans who make allegations of (a) negligence and (b) personal injury against his Department.

Johnny Mercer: As I said in response to the question of my hon. Friend the Member for Workington (Mark Jenkinson), the Overseas Operations (Service Personnel and Veterans) Bill will not prevent service personnel and veterans from bringing personal injury claims against the MOD in relation to overseas operations within six years from   either the date of incident or the date of knowledge. Claims by service personnel and veterans that are not related to overseas operations are unaffected by this Bill.

Bell Ribeiro-Addy: As Members begin to wear their poppies across the House, I want to remind the Minister of comments from Charles Byrne, the director of the Poppy Appeal campaign. He said that
the six-year long-stop could be a breach of the armed forces covenant,
and that the six-year limit is
protecting the MOD, rather than service personnel.
The Government say that the Bill is about protecting veterans, so, given that this is what many veterans’ organisations are saying, will the Government think again about the six-year limit, and will they also commit to promoting awareness of how to bring forward civil claims against the MOD to ensure that no veteran is unable to make a civil claim in the future?

Johnny Mercer: It is not true to say that many veterans’ organisations take the same view as the Legion on this case. Neither the Legion nor the Government are the guarantor of the armed forces covenant. I am absolutely 100% sure that this does not breach the armed forces covenant. If we were to wilfully translate it in a way in which it was never intended, then I accept what has been said, but that is not what the armed forces covenant is there to do. It is there to ensure that there is no disadvantage for those who serve, and this Government are the first to legislate, in the armed forces Bill next year, to make it illegal to discriminate against servicemen and women and veterans for their service. I am afraid therefore that I disagree on that point. It is a good Bill. It is fair and proportionate, and people should support it tomorrow.

UK Territorial Waters

Allan Dorans: What recent steps his Department has taken to protect UK territorial waters in the (a) north Atlantic and (b) North sea.

Alan Brown: What recent steps his Department has taken to protect UK territorial waters in the (a) north Atlantic and (b) North sea.

Ben Wallace: The protection of UK territorial waters is a cross-Government responsibility. The Ministry of Defence contributes to this by providing a multi-layered capability to deter incursions into territorial waters. This includes a range of assets based in Scotland, from surface ships and submarines based on the Clyde to the new Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft based at RAF Lossiemouth. That is a good example of how United Kingdom defence contributes to the security of all these islands.

Allan Dorans: Can the Secretary of State tell us his plans to ensure that our armed forces can cope with multiple tasks, including combating people and drug trafficking, and foreign incursion into our territorial waters and airspace, as has been seen recently? Will they specifically live up to the Government’s promise to establish a frigate factory on the Clyde?

Ben Wallace: First of all, the hon. Gentleman will know that one of the ways in which we cope with securing our borders—both inside and further afield internationally—is by burden sharing and working across a range of agencies, including with the Scottish Government, who have control of fisheries protection. On the issue of a frigate factory, first and foremost, the last two major shipbuilding contracts for defence have both been placed in Scotland: the Type 26 on the Clyde and the Type 31 at Rosyth. Good United Kingdom shipbuilding will, of course, always involve Scotland—as long as Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom.

Alan Brown: Scottish waters comprise over 60% of the UK’s waters, yet we have no surface warships. In fact, the most northerly surface warship base is located at the south coast of England, which means that scrambling a fleet ready escort takes over 24 hours to reach Scottish waters. Given that there are almost monthly transgressions into Scottish waters and we need regular patrols, why is the Rosyth base being scrapped?

Ben Wallace: The hon. Gentleman’s claim could have some credibility if his party was not busy trying to scrap the HM submarine base on the Clyde and to push the submarines out of Scotland.

Non-disclosure Agreements

Kevan Jones: What recent assessment he has made of trends in the number of non-disclosure agreements used within his Department’s defence programmes.

Jeremy Quin: The Ministry of Defence only uses non-disclosure agreements in its commercial arrangements by exception, when there is a specific need. Although no trend analysis has been undertaken, it remains the case that NDAs are only used where absolutely necessary.

Kevan Jones: I accept that NDAs are important in terms of financial contractual obligations, but is the Minister aware that his Department is asking industry, at pre-bid stage, to sign NDAs that actually exclude those companies from being able to speak to MPs or Ministers? I understand that some US primes such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin are refusing to sign them—quite rightly—so why is the Department now getting companies to sign these NDAs for contracts such as Skynet?

Jeremy Quin: I am not aware of any company complaining about NDAs. If the right hon. Gentleman is aware of some, I would really encourage those companies to get in contact with me directly and I will take it up.

Kevan Jones: They can’t!

Jeremy Quin: There are many means, including through trade associations, whereby companies can put the word to Ministers if they are concerned. NDAs do have a valuable role, including protecting the interests of the commercial entities themselves; they normally work both ways. Many companies are reluctant to share intellectual property, and research and development, with another entity without having their own position protected, so NDAs have a benefit for companies as well.

Defence Manufacturing: Covid-19 Support

Geraint Davies: If he will bring forward equipment procurement decisions to support the defence manufacturing industry during the covid-19 outbreak.

Jeremy Quin: We have maintained a close and ongoing dialogue with defence manufacturers throughout the pandemic to ensure that companies are effectively supported. I am pleased to confirm that orders have continued to be placed throughout the crisis.

Geraint Davies: Airbus and Tata Steel in Neath Port Talbot are strategically important to the Welsh economy. Is the Minister ensuring that procurement is brought forward in terms of buying aircraft and building ships to help British steel and Airbus? Boeing, for example, has a lot of orders in America that supports it as a primary competitor, and we see such support in Europe as well. What is the Minister doing for Airbus and Tata Steel?

Jeremy Quin: There are elements of programmes that are being brought forward. The prime focus now, however, is on supporting the cash flow of the companies and suppliers. We have the means of doing so and we have been doing so. We have also been encouraging primes to support their own supply chains. From what I hear from trade bodies, that has been happening. I am pleased by the way the whole of industry has leant in during this ongoing pandemic and the support they have been given right the way across.

International Disinformation Threat

Owen Thompson: What assessment he has made of the potential threat of international disinformation to the security of the UK.

Ben Wallace: The Ministry of Defence takes the threat posed by malicious disinformation campaigning by state and non-state actors very seriously. Working with allies and partners across Government collectively, we monitor such activity closely, assess the risk, and take action to counter it if appropriate.

Lindsay Hoyle: We now go up to Scotland with Owen Thompson.

Owen Thompson: [Inaudible.]

Lindsay Hoyle: We will go straight to topical questions, then.

Topical Questions

Peter Bone: If he will make a statement on his departmental responsibilities.

Ben Wallace: The Government are committed to ensuring that we have the best possible process for timely and effective investigations into serious allegations arising from future military operations overseas. That is why, building on the review of the service justice system done by His Honour Shaun Lyons and former chief constable Sir Jon Murphy, I announced on 13 October that I have  commissioned a review to be led by Sir Richard Henriques. Sir Richard Henriques was appointed to the High Court bench in 2000, has tried several high-profile terrorist cases, and has conducted several reviews for the Crown Prosecution Service and the Metropolitan police. His review will consider options for strengthening internal investigation processes and skills, thus helping to ensure that in our future complex and demanding operations around the world, our armed forces are continuing to uphold the highest standards of conduct. It will not revisit past investigations or prosecutable decisions.

Peter Bone: Does the Secretary of State believe that not having a multi-year defence settlement would be catastrophic?

Ben Wallace: My hon. Friend will know that last year we did not have one either, but we got a generous settlement from the Treasury for that one year. It is of course the case that any Department that has a heavy reliance on capital spending prefers a long-term spending commitment from the Treasury. That was true a decade ago and it is true today. That is our preference. However, we are also living in a time of covid-19—a less than a once-in-a-generation challenge to both the coffers and indeed the conduct of this country. As a result, we will have to review each issue as it comes. As I have said, we are in the middle of a form of negotiation trying to see what the impacts of the announcement will be.

Lindsay Hoyle: Can I just say that topicals are meant to be short and punchy? We have got to get into that habit.

John Healey: As we have seen this afternoon, there is growing cross-party concern over the Secretary of State’s overseas operations Bill. Will he now accept, after 10 Committee sittings, that it is clear that the Bill simply does not do what it says on the tin—to protect British troops overseas from vexatious litigation and repeat investigations? Will he also accept that, as we have seen this afternoon, the Minister in charge is in denial about the Bill’s flaws and dangers? Will the Secretary of State himself therefore join me tomorrow for Report stage so that we can work together on the changes needed to make this legislation fit for purpose?

Lindsay Hoyle: Order. I say to the Front Benchers once again, if you are going to ask questions in topicals, they have got to be short and punchy. That is the idea of topicals. I call the Secretary of State.

Ben Wallace: No.

Lindsay Hoyle: That’s the way to do it.

Alec Shelbrooke: Now that we have left the EU, what assessment and representations is my right hon. Friend making about inter-operational ability in procurement done by EU members through the permanent structured co-operation, PESCO?

Jeremy Quin: As a leading European ally, we work closely with allied nations and do not need formal EU programmes to do so. However, I understand that the EU is in the final  stages of agreeing third country participation rules for PESCO, and we look forward to seeing them in due course.

John McNally: Following the death of Captain Dean Sprouting caused by American soldiers on 31 January 2018 while on deployment in Iraq, his widow Linda and their two sons, Oliver and Harry, have been seeking justice on Dean’s behalf. How can it be right for the British Government to allow those who killed Dean to investigate themselves by themselves, and to decide for themselves only to then defend themselves? Particularly at this time of year we are reminded and mindful of Dean’s futile loss of life. Is the Secretary of State willing to challenge the US over this concealment of injustice?

Johnny Mercer: I have met the widow of Dean Sprouting on a couple of occasions, and I am more than happy to do so again. This incident has been investigated. It is a tragic incident. I am happy to speak with her again, but I am not sure there is too much more we can do.

Craig Williams: Royal British Legion branches across the country are getting ready for Remembrance Sunday, and I pay tribute to them, including my home branch of Llanfair Caereinion, which has filled the village with poppies. What guidance has the Secretary of State given to the devolved Assemblies and local authorities to encourage them to hold remembrance services this Sunday?

Johnny Mercer: This is a very important time of year for the country. We encourage people to remember in their own way. There will be guidance given out by local authorities, but remembrance events will be able to go ahead. There will be a small national ceremony at the Cenotaph that we encourage people to watch on television.

Chris Elmore: Will the Minister provide an update on the voter ID card roll-out? I know there was a statement in April, but my constituents who are former veterans are asking when it will be implemented. It is of huge concern to constituents who rightly deserve their ID card.

Johnny Mercer: Well, it is veterans ID, not voter ID. The veterans ID card should have come out at the end of last year. It has been delayed. Everybody who leaves the military now gets a veterans ID card, but there are challenges in backdating it and dealing with things such as fraud. We accept that and we are working through it at the moment. I will have an update in due course.

John Lamont: Can I ask the Minister to update the House on the activities and investment that the Ministry of Defence plans for Scotland in the months ahead?

Ben Wallace: Defence continues to invest in Scotland and the critical capabilities based there. Both RAF Lossiemouth and Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde are expanding and will be home to the new maritime patrol aircraft and all Royal Navy submarines. MOD expenditure   with industry in Scotland has increased for the fifth consecutive year, supporting 10,200 jobs—the equivalent of £320 per person in Scotland. Approximately 10,000usb regular armed forces personnel, 5,000 reservists and 4,000 civilians are based in Scotland.

Bill Esterson: Why does the Defence Secretary think the Royal British Legion is so adamant that the Overseas Operations (Service Personnel and Veterans) Bill breaches the armed forces covenant and fails to protect veterans?

Johnny Mercer: Again, that is completely incorrect. The Royal British Legion does not think that. It thinks that there is a risk, and it has outlined that risk. We have taken that risk into consideration, and the Bill does not breach the armed forces covenant. It is a good piece of legislation and the House should support it tomorrow.

Pauline Latham: What steps is the Minister taking to ensure that  UK armed forces will not be complicit in sexual exploitation and abuse by international peacekeepers in Mali?

Johnny Mercer: This country has a very long-standing system to ensure that we have strong safeguards against that sort of behaviour. Everyone deploying to Mali will be equipped with the mission-specific training that we have done on operations over many years now. We have some of the highest and most rigorous standards in the world, and that will be continued in operations in Mali.

Nick Smith: The vital Crowsnest project for the carriers has faced severe delays. Delivery is now promised for September 2021, 18 months late. Can the Minister confirm that it will definitely be ready next year?

Jeremy Quin: I can confirm that a baseline capability will be sailing with the carrier strike group next year.

Alicia Kearns: What assessment has the Secretary of State made regarding recent revelations by Bellingcat that Russia continues to develop covert chemical weapons and targeted, more advanced delivery mechanisms in an enormous violation of the chemical weapons convention? What does that tell us about the threat we face, and what is he doing to keep us safe?

Ben Wallace: My right hon. Friend the Member for Maidenhead (Mrs May) confirmed that the Salisbury Novichok attack in 2018 was carried out by the Russians and that Russia had an undeclared chemical weapons programme. We have repeatedly called on Russia to declare a Novichok programme and uphold its international obligations under the chemical weapons convention. We have brought in sanctions against those responsible for Navalny’s poisoning and we will keep every measure under review.

Kerry McCarthy: With almost 400,000 acres in England, the Ministry of Defence is one of the biggest landowners in this country. What is  it doing to ensure that it is environmentally sustainable and helping the Government to meet their target to plant many more trees?

Jeremy Quin: I am speaking to my colleagues across Government about how we can help with the programme of planting more trees in the environment. There is a large programme ongoing in the estate, and I can assure the hon. Lady that we are very proud of the sites of special scientific interest under our control and what we are doing for the natural environment.

Sara Britcliffe: Hyndburn and Haslingden is famous for the Accrington Pals and has a proud record when it comes to representing this country. We also have great people such as the team at Veterans in Communities, who I recently had the pleasure of meeting in Haslingden. Will my right hon. Friend agree to look at whether a recruitment office can be opened in my constituency, so that our armed forces can attract more of Lancashire’s finest?

Johnny Mercer: My hon. Friend is a strong advocate, and Accrington has a long and proud history of providing people for the armed forces. My hon. Friend the Minister for the Armed Forces would be delighted to do a visit with her and to look at all the recruitment offices to see whether there is a space that needs to be filled up in Accrington.

Lindsay Hoyle: Nothing prouder than the Accrington and Chorley Pals.

Lucy Powell: It is welcome news that the fleet solid support ships will now be built in Britain. Can the Secretary of State assure us that British steel will be used exclusively to build those ships?

Ben Wallace: All I can say at this moment in time is that we are engaging with potential bidders, and we will ensure that we build a ship that is the best of British but also incorporates the best capabilities that we can deliver for the money and for our armed forces.

Ben Spencer: Can my right hon. Friend outline what support the military is providing to increase NHS bed capacity and what plans there are to extend that?

Ben Wallace: At the beginning of the covid outbreak, the military were deeply engaged in the roll-out, building and running of the covid Nightingale hospitals, including the transfer of reserve medics from the NHS into that service. We will continue to review that. We are working inside the Department of Health and Social Care to see what its needs are, and I stand by to deliver them.

Alistair Carmichael: Fishermen working in Scapa Flow occasionally still dredge up ordnance left there from the end of the second world war. My constituent Ian Spence did exactly that in January this year. For the loss of a day’s fishing, damage to his gear and the personal danger in which he was put, he was given an ex gratia payment of £228. Can the Secretary of State explain to me and to my constituent why he considers that to be adequate?

Ben Wallace: I will have to look at the detail of that case, and I am happy to write to the right hon. Gentleman. Compensation and liability are obviously linked to who is at fault, and I will ensure that I furnish him with the details.

Emma Lewell-Buck: The changing of contracts at HM Naval Base Clyde, as part of the future maritime support programme, is an exercise in outsourcing. It will lead to job cuts and weaker terms and conditions and create an unnecessary operational risk to our UK defence capabilities. Why is the Secretary of State doing this?

Jeremy Quin: I think the hon. Lady is referring to the change from one outsourcing contract to another. We have gained a lot for the taxpayer from the existing contract, and hopefully more will be driven out in the future. We will do nothing that could endanger national security.

Lindsay Hoyle: In order to allow the safe exit of Members participating in this item of business and the safe arrival of those participating in the next, I am suspending the House for a few minutes.
Sitting suspended.

Speaker’s Statement

Lindsay Hoyle: Before I call the Prime Minister, I wish to make a short statement. I regret that the main elements of the Prime Minister’s statement were announced over the weekend. I understand that the statement was due to be made today, but was brought forward due to the leaks to the media. After speaking with the Prime Minister and the Leader of the House, who went to great lengths to reassure me that the leaks were not from Downing Street, I expect the Prime Minister to keep the House updated on his leak inquiry. I also hope that, if the leaker is identified and is a Member of this House, that Member will make a full apology to the House for their discourteous and unacceptable behaviour.
I would like to point out that the British Sign Language interpretation for this statement is available to watch on parliamentlive.tv.

Covid-19 Update

Boris Johnson: With permission, Mr Speaker,
I will make a statement on the measures we must now take to contain the autumn surge of coronavirus, protect our NHS and save lives. On Saturday evening, the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser described the remorseless advance of this second wave. The extraordinary efforts being made by millions of people across the country—especially those in very high alert areas—have made a real difference, suppressing the R rate below where it would otherwise have been. But the R is still above one in every part of England—as it is across much of Europe—and the virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst-case scenario. There are already more covid patients in some hospitals now than at the height of the first wave: 2,000 more this Sunday than last Sunday.
While the prevalence of the virus is worse in parts of the north, the doubling time in the south-east and the midlands is now faster than in the north-west. Even in the south-west, where incidence remains low, current projections mean that it will start to run out of hospital capacity in a matter of weeks. The modelling presented by our scientists suggests that, without action, we could see up to twice as many deaths over the winter as we saw in the first wave.
Faced with these latest figures, there is no alternative but to take further action at a national level. I believe it was right to try every possible option to get the virus under control at a local level, with strong local action and strong local leadership. I reject any suggestion that we are somehow slower in taking measures than our European friends and partners. In fact, we are moving to national measures when the rate both of deaths and infections is lower than they were in, for example, France.
We are engaged as a country in a constant struggle to protect lives and livelihoods, and we must balance the restrictions we introduce against the long-term scars they leave, whether for business and jobs, or our physical and mental health. No one wants to impose measures unless absolutely essential, so it made sense to focus initially on the areas where the disease was surging and not to shut businesses, pubs and restaurants in parts of the country where incidence was low.
I want to thank the millions who have put up with local restrictions, sometimes for months on end. I thank them and the local leaders who have understood the gravity of the position. We will continue so far as possible to adopt a pragmatic and local approach in the months ahead. But we are fighting a disease, and when the data changes course, we must change course too. To those in this House who believe we should resist further national measures, let me spell out the medical and moral disaster we face.
If we allow our health system to be overwhelmed—exactly as the data now suggests—that would not only be a disaster for thousands of covid patients, because their survival rates would fall, but we would also reach a point where the NHS was no longer there for everyone. The sick would be turned away because there was no room in our hospitals. That sacred principle of care for  anyone who needs it, whoever they are and whenever they need it, could be broken for the first time in our lives. Doctors and nurses could be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would live and who would die.
That existential threat to our NHS comes not from focusing too much on coronavirus, but from not focusing enough. If we fail to get coronavirus under control, the sheer weight of demand from covid patients would deprive others of the care they need. Cancer treatment, heart surgery, other life-saving procedures: all this could be put at risk if we do not get the virus under control. Even though we are so much better prepared than before, with stockpiles of PPE and ventilators, the Nightingales on standby, and 13,000 more nurses than last year, I am afraid that the virus is doubling faster than we could ever conceivably add capacity. Even if we doubled capacity, the gain would be consumed in a single doubling of the virus.
And so on Wednesday the House will vote on regulations which, if passed, will mean that, from Thursday until 2 December in England, people will only be permitted to leave home for specific reasons, including: for education; for work, if you cannot work from home; for exercise and recreation outdoors, with your household or on your own, or with one person from another household or support bubble; for medical reasons, appointments and to escape injury or harm; to shop for food and essentials; and to provide care for vulnerable people, or as a volunteer.
Essential shops will remain open and click-and-collect services will continue, so people do not need to stock up, but I am afraid that non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues and the personal care sector will all be closed. Hospitality must close except for takeaway and delivery services. Places of worship can open for individual prayer, funerals and formal childcare, but sadly not for services. However, Remembrance Sunday events can go ahead, provided they are held outside and observe social distancing. Workplaces should stay open where people cannot work from home, for example in construction or manufacturing. Elite sport will also be able to continue.
Single adult households can still form exclusive support bubbles with one other household, and children will still be able to move between homes if their parents are separated. The clinically vulnerable and those over 60 should minimise their contact with others. While we will not ask people to shield again in the same way, the clinically extremely vulnerable should only work from home.
I am truly sorry for the anguish these measures will impose, particularly for businesses that had just got back on their feet—businesses across the country that have gone to such trouble to make themselves covid-secure, to install Perspex screens and to do the right thing. Each of these actions has helped to bring R down, and their hard work will stand them in good stead, but it is now clear that we must do more together.
The Government will continue to do everything possible to support jobs and livelihoods in the next four weeks, as we have throughout. We protected almost 10 million jobs with furlough, and we are now extending the scheme throughout November. We have already paid out £13.7 billion to help the self-employed, and I can announce today that for November we will double our support from 40% to 80% of trading profits. My right  hon. Friend the Chancellor will also extend the deadline for applications to the covid loan schemes, from the end of this month to the end of next, to ensure that small businesses can have access to additional loans if required.
We are not going back to the full-scale lockdown of March and April, and there are ways in which these measures are less prohibitive. We have, for instance, a moral duty to keep schools open now that it is safe to do so, because we must not let this virus damage our children’s futures. Schools, colleges, universities, childcare and early years settings will remain open, and I am pleased that that will command support across the  House.
It is also vital that we continue provision for non-covid healthcare, so people should turn up to use the NHS and to get their scans. They should turn up for appointments and collect treatments.
Let me stress that these restrictions are time limited. After four weeks, on Wednesday 2 December, they will expire, and we intend to return to a tiered system on a local and regional basis, according to the latest data and trends. The House will have a vote to agree the way forward. We have updated the devolved Administrations on the action we are taking in England, and we will continue to work with them on plans for Christmas and beyond.
While scientists are bleak in their predictions over the short term, they are unanimously optimistic about the medium and long-term. If the House asked me, “What is the exit strategy? What is the way out?”, let me be as clear as I can that the way out is to get R down now, to beat this autumn surge and to use this moment to exploit the medical and technical advances we are making to keep it low.
We now have not only much better medication and the prospect of a vaccine, but we have the immediate prospect of many millions of cheap, reliable and rapid turnaround tests with results in minutes. Trials have already shown that we can help to suppress the disease in hospitals, schools and universities by testing large numbers of NHS workers, children, teachers and students.
These tests, crucially, identify people who are infectious but who do not have symptoms, allowing them immediately to self-isolate and stop the spread of the disease and allowing those who are not infectious to continue as normal. This means that, unlike in the spring, it is possible to keep these institutions open and still stop the spread of the disease.
Over the next few days and weeks we plan a steady but massive expansion in the deployment of these quick turnaround tests, which we will be manufacturing in this country and applying in an ever-growing number of situations, from helping women to have their partners with them when they are giving birth on labour wards to testing whole towns and even cities. The Army has been brought in to work on the logistics, and the programme will begin in a matter of days. We have dexamethasone, the first validated life-saving treatment for the disease, pioneered in this country. We have the real prospect of a vaccine, as I say, in the first quarter of next year; and we will have ever more sophisticated means of providing virtually instant tests.
I believe that those technical developments, taken together, will enable us to defeat the virus by the spring, as humanity has defeated every other infectious disease,  and I am not alone in this optimism. But I cannot pretend that the way ahead is easy or without painful choices for us all, so for the next four weeks I must again ask the people of this country to come together, to protect the NHS and to save many thousands of lives. I commend this statement to the House.

Keir Starmer: I thank the Prime Minister for advance sight of his statement and for his call on Saturday to brief me on developments.
The central lesson from the first wave of this virus was that if you do not act early and decisively, the cost will be far worse, more people will lose their jobs, more businesses will be forced to close and, tragically, more people will lose their loved ones. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor failed to learn that lesson; as a result, this lockdown will be longer than it needed to be—at least four weeks—it will be harder, as we have just missed half-term, and the human cost will be higher.
On 21 September, when the Government’s own scientists—SAGE—recommended an urgent two to three-week circuit break, there were 11 deaths from covid-19 and just over 4,000 covid infections. For 40 days, the Prime Minister ignored that advice, and when he finally announced a longer and deeper national lockdown on Saturday, those figures had increased to 326 deaths a day and 22,000 covid cases. That is the human cost of the Government’s inaction.
The reality is that the two pillars of the Prime Minister’s strategy, the £12 billion track and trace and regional restrictions, have not only failed to stop the second wave, they have been swept away by it. At every stage, the Prime Minister has been too slow, behind the curve. At every stage, he has pushed away challenge, ignored advice and put what he hoped would happen ahead of what is happening. At every stage, he has over-promised and under-delivered. Rejecting the advice of his own scientists for 40 days was a catastrophic failure of leadership and of judgment. The Prime Minister now needs to explain to the British people why he failed to act and to listen for so long. But tougher national restrictions are now needed, the virus is out of control and the cost of further inaction would be huge, so Labour will provide the votes necessary to make this happen.
But we will also demand that the Government do not waste these four weeks and repeat past mistakes, so can the Prime Minister answer some very simple and direct questions? Will the Government finally use this period to fix the broken track and trace system and give control to local authorities, as we have proposed for months? We all agree that schools should be kept open, so will the Prime Minister finally put in place the additional testing, support and strategy needed to make that happen? Will the Prime Minister confirm that the new economic package—I think it will be the Chancellor’s fourth in five weeks—will be at least as generous as in March? Despite the partial step he announced today, will he go further to close the gaping holes in support for the self-employed, and will there be further support for the 1 million people who have already lost their jobs since March?
How does the Prime Minister plan to get a grip on messaging and rebuild public trust? After all, this announcement is only happening today because it was leaked to the national papers before it came to Parliament.
Finally, can the Prime Minister clarify what the process will be for exiting lockdown? Will it be only when the national R rate is below 1, or will some regions exit lockdown before others? I noted the Prime Minister did not make this clear in his statement. This really matters, because even before this national lockdown, millions of people have been living under restrictions for months—Leicester, for example, is on day 127—and after everything the British people have been through and are being asked to sacrifice again, they need confidence that the Government actually have a plan; that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
I know how difficult this next month will be, and the months to come. The lockdown will be harder, longer and more damaging than it needed to be, and now more than ever we must stand together as a country, as families and as communities, and show once again that at a moment of national crisis, the British people always rise to the moment and support those in need.

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the right hon. and learned Gentleman for supporting these measures, and I think he is right to do so, but I make absolutely no apology whatever for doing my level best—our level best as a Government—to avoid going back into a national lockdown, with all the damage that entails for people’s livelihoods, for people’s mental health and for jobs across this country. That was our intention, and it is absolutely true, as the House has learned today and has seen, that the virus has risen across much of northern Europe. That does not mean that it was wrong to go for a local approach, and it does not mean it was wrong to support NHS Test and Trace, because both of those approaches—both of those means—have done a fantastic job, in their way, of bringing the virus under control and reducing the R. It is lower than it would have been without those heroic local efforts, and it is lower than it would have been without NHS Test and Trace. In my view, the right hon. and learned. Gentleman should stop continually knocking NHS Test and Trace, because we need people to self-isolate. I will accept many criticisms, but the one thing I do think we need to get right is that we need to see people self-isolating to a greater extent than they currently are. It would be good if people across this House could therefore back and support NHS Test and Trace, because it is absolutely vital.
Turning to some of the points that the right hon. and learned Gentleman made, yes it is absolutely true that we are going to protect schools particularly, and we are massively expanding testing for schools. Earlier in my remarks, I mentioned what mass testing can do for particular institutions: schools, hospitals, universities and others. He asked about help for the economy, for businesses and for the self-employed. He perhaps did not hear what I said: we are massively increasing help for the self-employed, and will continue to support businesses and livelihoods across this country. I once again thank my right hon. Friend the Chancellor for the creativity he brings to these problems.
The right hon. and learned Gentleman asked when these measures would end. As I have already told the House, they will end on 2 December. The House has the right to decide, and will vote on whatever measures it  chooses to bring in, but we will then go back to the tiered system based on the data as it presents itself. He asked the people of this country to stand together against the coronavirus, and I could not agree with him more. All I respectfully say to him is that I think the people of this country would also like to see the politicians of this country standing together a little bit more coherently in the face of this virus.

Liam Fox: The impact of the pandemic goes well beyond covid patients to all parts of the NHS, the economy, and our personal and social wellbeing. Does my right hon. Friend agree that for this House to be able to determine that decisions across all parts of Government have been taken on the best available evidence, a new parliamentary Committee—perhaps time limited, or made up of Privy Counsellors—should be established to reassure the British public that the cure is not worse than the disease?

Boris Johnson: I thank my right hon. Friend for the very interesting suggestion that he makes. I must tell him that throughout the pandemic, individual departmental Select Committees, as well as the Liaison Committee, have shown that they are more than capable of scrutinising these issues. However, I leave it up to the House to decide what arrangements it chooses to make.

Ian Blackford: It is right that the UK Government extend furlough as a consequence of new lockdown measures; it is right that economic support is put in place when Governments restrain work opportunities as a consequence of the health measures; and it is right that flexibility to take necessary financial decisions is also held by the devolved Administrations when they are taking lockdown decisions. That is why, since the start of September, I have asked the Prime Minister on no fewer than six separate occasions to extend the furlough scheme—yet every time the Prime Minister rejected that call.
This weekend’s last-minute U-turn on furlough has finally buried the nonsense of a Union of equals. People across these islands saw exactly what happened at the weekend: a mini-extension to furlough was granted only at the 11th hour when one part of the United Kingdom needed it. This is a democratic disgrace. The Prime Minister acted only when England needed support; when Scotland needed full furlough support, Westminster said no.
For many, this U-turn is already far too late. Thousands have already lost their jobs unnecessarily. Many good businesses have gone under and millions of the self-employed are still excluded.
Today I have one very direct question for the Prime Minister: if requested by the devolved Governments, particularly if they need to put in place additional lockdown measures, will the Prime Minister guarantee that the Treasury will make 80% furlough payments available when Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish workers or businesses need them over the coming months? It is a simple question, Prime Minister. For once, give us a straight answer to a question which the people of Scotland want to know. No more ducking and diving—is it yes or no?

Boris Johnson: The answer is yes because the furlough scheme is a UK-wide scheme and it applies across the whole of the UK. It is true that Scotland is  currently taking a slightly different approach, but the right hon. Gentleman was talking complete nonsense about the non-application of furlough in Scotland—absolute nonsense. The Treasury of the United Kingdom has supplied £7.2 billion to support the people of Scotland, and quite right too. That has protected 900,000 jobs in Scotland, thanks to the might of the UK Treasury.

Charles Walker: I will not be supporting the Government’s legislation on Wednesday, because as we drift further into an authoritarian, coercive state, the only legal mechanism left open to me is to vote against that legislation. That is all we have left, Mr Speaker—if my constituents protest, they get arrested.
Given that the people of this country will never, ever forgive the political class for criminalising parents seeing children and children seeing parents, does the Prime Minister not agree with me that now is the time for a written constitution that guarantees the fundamental rights of our constituents—a constitution underpinned and enforced by the Supreme Court?

Boris Johnson: What the people of this country want, rather than delectable disputations on a written constitution, is to defeat the coronavirus. That is why I think that overwhelmingly they understand the need for these measures and the need for us to come together as a country and get the R down in the way that we are proposing.

Edward Davey: In confirming that the Liberal Democrats will back this new lockdown, can I tell the Prime Minister that we will hold this Government to account for failing to listen to the scientists, refusing to lock down weeks ago and costing many more lives?
Throughout this pandemic, many people have been let down by this Government—the excluded self-employed, students, key workers. But I want to ask the Prime Minister about one particular group who have been forgotten: unpaid carers. Many carers have been struggling for months, often relying on food banks as they care for other people. Will the Prime Minister follow the advice of Carers UK: increase the carer’s allowance by £20 a week—the same rise as for universal credit—and give these incredible people a lifeline?

Boris Johnson: I am very grateful to carers—unpaid carers, in particular—for everything they have done to keep this country going throughout the pandemic. I will look at the right hon. Gentleman’s proposal but remind him of the colossal interventions we have already made, worth £200 billion, to support jobs and livelihoods across the whole of the UK. We will continue, as I say, to put our arms around the people of this country.

Fay Jones: Brecon and Radnorshire has around 50 miles of the border between Wales and England. My constituents, who are already in lockdown, regularly travel across the border for work, healthcare and education. Can my right hon. Friend confirm that essential travel across the border is not only permitted, but encouraged, and that the Welsh Government should not be using this pandemic to create artificial barriers between Wales and England?

Boris Johnson: I understand my hon. Friend’s frustrations and know how deeply difficult it is for people throughout this country to go through the restrictions on our normal way of life that we are asking of them again. I apologise to her and the House for what we are obliged to do, but we must ask people, unless it is absolutely necessary, to stay at home and stop transmission of the virus, and that applies throughout the UK.

Sammy Wilson: We were promised a Churchillian response to this virus, but rather than a Churchillian response, we have had a response more like that of Lord Halifax, because while we have had the rhetoric of defiance, this announcement today is really an announcement of defeat. We have surrendered our freedoms; we have surrendered our economy; we have driven people to despair with daily doses of doom-laden data. Can the Prime Minister promise us that, once we get past this latest lockdown, if there is another upsurge we will not get a bout of the same destructive medicine, but we will get a policy that allows this country and individuals to run their own lives and not be ruled by this virus?

Boris Johnson: I sympathise very much with the sentiments the right hon. Gentleman expresses about the loss of freedom and people’s frustrations; I do understand that, but I must say that I think what the people of this country want to see is this virus brought down. They want to see a reduction in the infection rate and, alas, at the moment this is the best tool we have to do that when we look at the whole national picture. But I am optimistic when I look at the scientific interventions that we have coming down the track, and even the medical and scientific advisers, who are not normally full of cheer on this matter, are optimistic when they consider the therapies, the prospect of a vaccine and the prospect of mass testing of the kind I have outlined to the House.

Stephen Metcalfe: I thank my right hon. Friend for his statement. I accept that we need to do something to ensure hospitalisation numbers are controlled and the R rate falls, but will he please review the regulations around socially distanced outdoor sports such as golf and tennis, as these are good forms of exercise for all ages and present very little risk of infection?

Boris Johnson: I sympathise again with that point, and I am glad my hon. Friend makes it. All I can say is that hon. Members and members of the public should get on to the website and look at exactly what is permitted, but the reality is that we have to break the transmission of the disease, and that is why, I am afraid, I must, with great sadness, tell my hon. Friends that we have to make these restrictions for the next four weeks. I bitterly regret it, but that is what we have got to do.

Liz Saville-Roberts: We have learned so much since spring: we have learned that we are expected to act grateful in Wales; we have learned that the Treasury is only there for us when the home counties of England go into lockdown—a casual dismissal of devolution that cost people their jobs; the news simply came too late. The Prime Minister may not have noticed yet, but he and his Chancellor are fronting a membership drive for the independence movement YesCymru, which added 2,000 members in two days this weekend. Would he accept my grateful thanks?

Boris Johnson: I am always grateful for any kindness from the right hon. Lady, but I can tell her that, generally speaking, our co-operation with the Administration in Cardiff has been excellent, and I have no doubt that it will continue to be so.

David Davis: The Prime Minister is clearly and quite properly trying to do everything possible to cut infections and deaths from covid-19. To that end, over the weekend, a number of eminent scientists called on the Government to try to resolve the vitamin D deficiency issues in the United Kingdom to reduce the severity of the pandemic. There have been dozens of studies over hundreds of countries in the last six months that show—or imply, anyway—that that could reduce infection rates by half and case death rates by half again. The Scottish Government are sending four months’ supply of vitamin D to everybody who shielded in Scotland. Given that it is low cost and there is no medical downside, will our Government consider the same approach in England?

Boris Johnson: I am very grateful to my right hon. Friend. He is entirely right that we are indeed looking at the possible beneficial effects of vitamin D, and I know that we will be updating the House shortly.

Caroline Lucas: Extending support for the self-employed is welcome, but it does nothing for the more than 3 million self-employed and freelancers who were unfairly left out of previous schemes and are still excluded—huge numbers of those working in the arts and hospitality in my Brighton constituency, for example. Will the Prime Minister look at that again and take one small but simple step that would help? Will he acknowledge that the minimum income floor under universal credit discriminates against anyone with an unpredictable and variable income, and will he delay its impending reintroduction?

Boris Johnson: I can tell the hon. Lady that we are supporting the arts, as she knows, with a £1.57 billion package. They are vital for our country; they are massively important to the UK economy. Her point about the minimum income floor for universal credit is one that the Government well understand and that we are looking at actively at the moment.

Bernard Jenkin: May I thank the Prime Minister for the bitter medicine that he has had to deliver over the last two or three days? I assure him that I will support his measures, because nobody has put forward a viable immediate alternative that would avoid the overwhelming of the NHS, but what can he do to strengthen public confidence in the Government’s covid response? He has started today to set out some of the features of what might be called a plan for living with coronavirus—a combination of vaccines and testing, and tracking and tracing. Will he consider setting that out in a White Paper? Would that include transformation not just of the logistics of test, track and trace but of its leadership, so that it can run a coherent and viable campaign to change behaviour by consent and co-operation, and get compliance and public confidence in that programme? Finally, will my right hon. Friend publish more of the analysis and data behind the decisions he has had to take so that people can understand more clearly why the Government are making these decisions and there is more transparency and accountability?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to my hon. Friend for all his excellent suggestions. We are certainly happy to publish all the data. I tried to set out to the House earlier on our plan for the way forward. He is absolutely correct that it relies not just on getting the virus down now, in this four-week period—that is the objective—but on ensuring that we make the maximum possible use of the various scientific developments, not just the vaccine and new therapies but, as he says, improved testing. I can certainly assure him that the military will be closely involved.

Karin Smyth: My constituents did everything asked of them. They obeyed the rules, at great personal sacrifice, and now they are being asked to do it again because of the Government’s failure. Trust is absolutely now at rock bottom. The Prime Minister’s two key planks to rebuild that trust are around test and trace and the tier system. First, he needs to sack Baroness Harding. I know she is a friend and I know it is difficult, but test and trace has clearly been a failure. He needs to give that £12 billion resource back to the experts on the ground locally who know how to use it and to support people isolating. Secondly, he is going to return to the tier system; that is all we know about what will happen on 3 December. What is the real plan? If the tier system has worked—Bristol is currently in tier 1—are we to expect Bristolians to return to tier 1 on 3 December?

Boris Johnson: First, again NHS Test and Trace—whatever the drawbacks, whatever the frustrations that people legitimately feel—will achieve its target of 500,000 capacity by the end of October. It already has achieved that target, and I think that is a considerable thing to have done. I thank everybody working in NHS Test and Trace for their efforts. As I say, we need people to self-isolate to give the system the effectiveness that it needs.
I can tell the hon. Member that, when we come to 2 December, the tier that areas go into will depend very much on the effectiveness with which we have all followed the instructions that we are giving today, and that is the guidance she should give her constituents.

James Sunderland: Lockdown is a necessary evil and comes with a lot of pain, and like my hon. Friend the Member for South Basildon and East Thurrock (Stephen Metcalfe), many of my constituents in Bracknell have contacted me to express concern about the effective closure of gymnasiums, golf clubs and tennis clubs. Given the proven benefits of exercise and the lack of any clear evidence that these activities have contributed to an increase in the R rate, might the Prime Minister be willing to reconsider the current guidance within the next four weeks?

Boris Johnson: Again, I must apologise to my hon. Friend for not being able to offer the House a huge list of exemptions to the rules that we are setting out, because once you unpick at one thing, alas, the effectiveness of the whole package is compromised. That is why I want everybody to work together for the next four weeks, as I say, to get the R under control so that we can open things up again in time for December.

Pat McFadden: What is the Prime Minister and the Chancellor’s estimate of the additional economic cost of implementing this   second lockdown now, for four weeks or possibly more in the run-up to Christmas, compared with implementing it for two weeks when the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies first recommended it back on 21 September?

Boris Johnson: As the chief medical officer said I think on Saturday night, there is “no right time” to close businesses, or to close pubs and restaurants. We do not—no Government—want to do that. We hope very much that this limited four-week action will get the R down, and I think it is greatly to be preferred to a rolling series of lockdowns of the kind that I believe were being proposed.

Lindsay Hoyle: The runway is clear for Bob Blackman.

Bob Blackman: Thank you, Mr Speaker.
I thank my right hon. Friend, in particular for laying out the scientific data on which this decision is based. Most people will say they are prepared obviously to do the right thing in order to eliminate and defeat this virus, but could he set out the criteria that he will use to ensure that we can come out of this partial lockdown on 2 December? The risk is that things could get worse over these next two or three weeks before we see an improvement, and people want to know what they have to do to make sure that we get the infection rate down and make sure it stays down.

Boris Johnson: Just to repeat the point that I think I made to the right hon. and learned Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer), the R is above 1, but it is not much above 1—it is not much above 1—and if we work hard between now and 2 December, I believe that we can get it below 1. But whatever happens, these restrictions end on 2 December, and any further measures will be a matter for this House of Commons.

Janet Daby: What plans will be put in place to address the spiralling waiting lists for cancer services, and what additional support are the Government giving to the many thousands of people who have had their cancer treatment disrupted due to the pandemic?

Boris Johnson: The hon. Member makes an excellent point. It is precisely to protect cancer services and to ensure that non-covid patients get access to the treatment they need that we have to put in place the package of measures that we have announced today.

Laura Farris: I understand that the data leaves the Government with no choice but to enter a national lockdown, but given the huge consequences that that entails, can my right hon. Friend give assurances that the new tools at his disposal, particularly the 15-minute tests, will be sufficiently ubiquitous and effective in the coming weeks to avoid any future national lockdown after November?

Boris Johnson: That is certainly the intention, and that is why we are massively ramping up the tests in the way that my hon. Friend describes.

Patrick Grady: The Prime Minister’s furlough is in place until December; the German equivalent is in place until December 2021. That is the kind of certainty that employers and employees  in Glasgow North are looking for. He said that the furlough scheme is UK-wide, so does that mean that, if parts of the United Kingdom are still in a lockdown beyond December, devolved Administrations will have the resources they need to extend the 80% furlough?

Boris Johnson: The hon. Gentleman must have missed my answer to the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford). I can tell him that the furlough is a UK-wide scheme that applies throughout the whole of the United Kingdom. I remind him that the UK has already contributed £7.2 billion to support the people of Scotland throughout the crisis.

Graham Brady: Before Wednesday, will my right hon. Friend publish a full impact assessment, setting out the cost of the lockdown in terms of the jobs that will be lost, the businesses that will fail, the enormous toll on people’s mental health and other aspects of their health and the lives that will be lost as a result of lockdown, as well as those that we hope to save?

Boris Johnson: There are many estimates of the economic impact that the country has already sustained and many projections of the losses in employment that we, alas, expect. Against them, we must set the tragic loss of life that would inevitably ensue if the House failed to act on Wednesday.

Bill Esterson: It has been 33 weeks since the start of the first lockdown. In that time, one in 20 people who are part of the working population have had no work, but have been ineligible for furlough, self-employed financial support and business grants and loans. What is the Prime Minister’s message to the millions of people who have had no financial support about how they should put food on the table for their families?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, because he raises a very important point. We have put another £9 billion into the welfare system, principally by uprating universal credit, and that will go through to next year, as he knows.

Andrea Leadsom: The lockdown since March has been devastating for many people and only very reluctantly will I be supporting the latest lockdown measures when they come to the House on Wednesday. Does my right hon. Friend agree that the real problem is for people’s mental health, whether it is elderly people who are in care homes or who are desperately missing their families; business people who are seeing their life’s efforts ruined around them; or, of course, families with very young children who are isolated and, frankly, miserable? Will he do everything possible to make sure that this lockdown is a compassionate one and that those who are vulnerable and who have mental health problems will be supported through it?

Boris Johnson: Indeed, that is why we put another £12 billion into supporting our mental healthcare. The general point that my right hon. Friend makes is very important. That is one of the reasons why no Government  would want to impose these measures lightly and why we want to make sure that we get through them as fast as we can.

Kerry McCarthy: The Prime Minister rightly spoke of the importance of strong local action and strong local leadership, but he needs to acknowledge that his dithering and delay, and the lack of communication, has made local leaders’ jobs far more difficult. Will he and the Chancellor commit today to talk to the core cities to assess the economic impact of lockdown on them and, in the first instance, the need for a winter support package to tackle issues such as rough sleeping, food poverty and mental health, as the right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) said?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the hon. Lady. We are in constant contact with government—regional, local and city—at all levels throughout this country to help it to protect and support our constituents. We have given about £3.7 billion to local councils and we will continue to support local government throughout the crisis.

Greg Clark: It is important that Parliament should have the chance to scrutinise the scientific advice behind these recommendations, so I am grateful to Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Whitty for agreeing to appear before the Select Committee on Science and Technology tomorrow. But will my right hon. Friend confirm that it is his policy to have the minimum level of restrictions on businesses and people in every place, consistent with the need to avoid overwhelming the NHS?

Boris Johnson: That is the policy very accurately summed up, but for better elucidation and understanding of it I urge people to get on to the website to see exactly what they need to do.

Clive Efford: I accept the need for extra restrictions in order to get on top of the R rate and bring it down, but it is disturbing that the Government do not seem to have any specific targets that they seek to achieve through this lockdown. When we have the debate on Wednesday, will the Government be coming back with specific targets they want to achieve by 2 December?

Boris Johnson: These measures are time-limited—they elapse on 2 December—but I repeat that the objective is to get the infection rate to stop doubling and to start halving. To do that, we need to get the R down below 1—it is currently estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.3; I think the Office for National Statistics said recently that it was 1.6, but it has been coming down. Our intention is to use this period to get it below 1 and get that infection rate halving, not doubling.

Andrew Percy: Some northern Mayors are playing a dangerous game of trying to divide the country along geographical lines. I remind the Prime Minister that lots of leaders in the north of England, including those in my area, want to work with the Government to defeat this virus and will not run off to the nearest TV studio once they have engaged in that partnership with the Government. May I, however, push him on the issue of mental health? This is causing  particular issues for many people with anxiety. Will he ensure that therapies such as talking therapies and charities that work with those who have anxiety conditions will be properly funded throughout this whole process?

Boris Johnson: Yes, indeed. My hon. Friend will have seen that there are specific exemptions for volunteers and people who are helping—for therapists and others. We continue to put many millions of support into mental health charities, in addition to supporting NHS mental health.

Afzal Khan: When local leaders asked the Government to maintain the furlough scheme at 80% when tier 3 restrictions were imposed across much of the north-west, north-east and west midlands, they refused. Instead, the lowest-paid northerners were told that a 67% wage subsidy was sufficient for them. When similar restrictions were extended to the rest of England over the weekend, the Chancellor appears to have changed his mind, shaken the magic money tree and returned to 80%. Does the Prime Minister understand why the north believes it is being treated with utter contempt? Can he now confirm that the Government will maintain an 80% wage subsidy for any ongoing tier 3 restrictions after the national lockdown is lifted?

Boris Johnson: The crucial point here is that the measures we are enacting today—or that I hope the House will vote through on Wednesday—are very different from the tier 3 measures, and therefore the package of support is, appropriately, different as well.

Andy Carter: Small businesses across the north-west have been operating under significant restrictions for some time. I have seen for myself the ingenuity and creativity with which business owners have adapted, as they have reported weak demand and reduced cash reserves. Many of them were looking forward to the run-up to Christmas for some relief, so can my right hon. Friend outline the measures that will be introduced to protect livelihoods and secure jobs in the north-west and Warrington South?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the people of Warrington for everything they have done; I know that they have had a very tough time. It has been tough to control the disease there, as it has been across many parts of the country, and they have done a great job in bringing the R down. I think there is the prospect of a much brighter future ahead if we can make a success of these national measures and open up again in December, to give people the chance of some shopping and economic activity in the weeks leading up to Christmas and beyond.

Alistair Carmichael: We all know that those who want to break up the United Kingdom love nothing more than a manufactured grievance, but I have to tell the Prime Minister that he does nothing to help those of us who want the United Kingdom to stay together when he is the one manufacturing the grievances. His position in relation to the future access to furlough funds for Scotland and the other devolved Administrations is unfair and untenable, and it has to change. He does not need to take my word for it; he can ask the hon. Member for Moray (Douglas Ross), the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, who takes exactly the same view.

Boris Johnson: I must respectfully remind the right hon. Gentleman of what I have said repeatedly throughout this afternoon: the furlough scheme is UK-wide and it will continue to apply in Scotland—of course it will.

Peter Aldous: I thank my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister for his statement, and I take note of his answers to my hon. Friends the Members for South Basildon and East Thurrock (Stephen Metcalfe) and for Bracknell (James Sunderland) that there are outdoor recreational activities, such as swimming at the Beccles lido, that can take place in a socially distanced and responsible way. I urge him to reflect on that. Will he also ensure that indoor leisure and hospitality businesses that are required to close will receive the necessary support to get them and their staff through this crisis?

Boris Johnson: In all intellectual humility, we will look at all the suggestions made by right hon. and hon. Members across the House. We will look at any exceptions that we can sensibly make, but I just go back to the point I made earlier that it is difficult to take out one part of the Jenga block without disturbing the whole package. I hear what my hon. Friend says, and I can assure him that indoor and outdoor businesses will certainly be receiving support.

Jim Shannon: I thank the Prime Minister for his statement today. I understand that there will be a Barnett consequential for Northern Ireland, and I welcome the Government’s commitment to that, but I ask him to recognise that the closure of many sectors in England has a massive impact across the United Kingdom, particularly given that so many companies in Northern Ireland supply the English market, and that UK-wide support is therefore needed. What will the Barnett consequentials be for Northern Ireland?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman, and we are making sure that people across the whole of the UK get the support that they need. I think that things have been tough in Northern Ireland lately, and the overall package has been worth about £2.4 billion so far, but obviously there will be more to come.

Jeremy Hunt: I strongly support these painful measures, and the Prime Minister’s transparent reluctance to take away people’s liberties will reassure many people that they are absolutely necessary. It will not surprise him that I want to ask him about the testing of NHS staff. In July, Chris Whitty told the Select Committee that he supported regular testing of NHS staff if there was a surge. We now have that surge, but less than half of NHS trusts are testing all their staff on a weekly basis. Will the Prime Minister reassure NHS staff that they are not infecting their own patients, reassure cancer patients that it is safe to go into hospitals, and reassure the country that the NHS is not going to become a covid-only service, by saying that when we start this new lockdown, we will also start weekly testing of all NHS staff?

Boris Johnson: We are rolling out testing of all NHS staff as fast as we possibly can, and we are all too aware of the risk of nosocomial infection of the kind that we saw last time. One of the things that we are doing this time is greatly expanding the use of novel  mass testing devices such as the LAMP technology, with which I am sure my right hon. Friend is familiar, in NHS settings. As I told the House earlier, we want to get to a world in which we are testing these particularly vulnerable institutions—hospitals, care homes, schools and universities—with regular mass lateral flow testing of the kind that I have described.

Kevan Jones: Participation in sport is vital for our nation’s physical and mental health. The Prime Minister triumphantly announced at his press conference on Saturday night that the premier league would continue, but his announcement today means that local amateur football will not be able to continue. Golf clubs and gyms will be closed despite their valiant efforts to ensure that they are covid safe. Will the Prime Minister publish the scientific data behind this set of decisions?

Boris Johnson: I am happy to provide all the scientific data on which these decisions have been made, but I think that the House will appreciate that for any particular human activity, one can always find an arguable exemption from these measures—or from many of them. The difficulty is that to be consistent and have a package that works, we need a thoroughgoing series of measures of the kind that we have described. I bitterly regret that we have to curtail for 28 days football clubs and sporting activities in the way that we are—I bitterly, bitterly regret it—but I believe that that is necessary to get the R down.

Mel Stride: This lockdown will inevitably have very serious consequences for our economy, and for the livelihoods of millions of people up and down the country, for many years to come. My right hon. Friend has rightly stated that he does not wish to see the NHS overwhelmed, but, equally, we do not wish to see the UK economy overwhelmed. Will he therefore agree that perhaps we need a more balanced debate about lockdown, involving both scientists and economists more prominently? With that in mind, would he consider the Government’s chief economic adviser—or similar economic expert—joining the Government’s scientific experts for the No. 10 press briefings?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for that point. I am not sure that I want to put the Government’s chief economic adviser through the experience of the press briefings, but we are always aware of the economic consequences and the downsides of what, alas, we are forced to do at the moment. That is why it is vital that we work together and get the R down below 1 again; it is only just above 1, and I do believe that we can do it by 2 December. We can then open up the economy again in the way that I know both he and I would like to see.

Deidre Brock: Small businesses in my constituency of Edinburgh North and Leith, and right across the UK, are facing permanent closure. The rainy day funds are exhausted, the personal investments of owners and partners are about to be lost, and the millions of people that they employ are facing redundancy. Will the Prime Minister give a guarantee that this will be treated with the same urgency with  which a UK Government treated a threat to the banks a few years ago, and will he commit to directing major cash resources to small enterprises and the self-employed to see them through this period? Any recovery will be built on their backs. What will his Government do to protect them?

Boris Johnson: The hon. Member is completely correct in what she says about the recovery; it will be on the backs of small and medium-sized businesses up and down the land. As she knows, that is why we have extended a massive package of support including £25,000 grants, bounce back loans and all the investments that have been made—a total package worth £200 billion. For those now forced to close by these restrictions, there are grants of £3,000. There are also grants of £2,100 for those that may not be legally forced to close, but which are adversely affected. As she knows, we have also put in place cuts to VAT and deferred business rates until next year.

Mark Pawsey: I am pleased that, in his answer to the hon. Member for Edinburgh North and Leith (Deidre Brock), the Prime Minister acknowledged the burden on businesses. After a difficult year, independent traders and hospitality venues in Rugby and Bulkington were looking forward to their peak sales period in the run-up to Christmas. Is the Prime Minister confident that the cost to businesses through the loss of turnover and jobs is a price worth paying? Can he reassure them that, after this short-term pain, it will be back to business on 2 December? Why can pubs not sell takeaway beer to go with their takeaway food?

Boris Johnson: Again, there is a budget of measures that we need to bring together to get the R down, and alas, when we start unpicking one bit, logically, a lot of the rest of it comes out. My hon. Friend’s fundamental question is the right one. I think that the people of this country want to put human life first, and they want to save as many lives as possible. That must be our overriding aim, and it is our overriding aim. We think that if we enforce these measures properly, if people self-isolate and if they are contacted in the way that they should be, we can get the R down below 1 in the way that I have described, and we can have businesses able to open up again and do Christmas business in so far as they possibly can.

Rachel Hopkins: The Prime Minister knows that Luton suppressed the virus by increasing local testing capacity to track and isolate the virus and by the huge effort made by our diverse community to do our bit. With the virus increasing across the country, what protections will he put in place for black, Asian and minority ethnic communities, who we know are at risk and are currently disproportionately represented in ICU admissions?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the people of Luton for everything that they have done, as I am to everywhere across the country that has worked so hard to get the virus down. It is absolutely true that some people, such as black and minority groups, have proved particularly vulnerable. They need enhanced protection and enhanced testing arrangements, which we put in place long ago, and particularly to ensure that people  who are working in conditions where they may be more vulnerable to viral load from others get the protection that they need.

Sara Britcliffe: I have listened carefully and engaged in many detailed briefing sessions about this latest escalation. To respond to my constituents and questions from Members across the House, can the Prime Minister give some clarification on the rationale for gym closures and restrictions on places of worship, especially as so many in Hyndburn and Haslingden have worked extremely hard to make sure that they are covid-secure?

Boris Johnson: The rationale is very simple: it is to reduce the overall spread of the virus and get the R down below 1. That is the rationale.

Rachael Maskell: Charities have never been more needed. As fundraising opportunities have dried up and retail stores are closing down, charities are predicted to have a £10 billion deficit, and yet they are providing more and more services. What additional resources will the Prime Minister provide to ensure that they can deliver vital services at this time?

Boris Johnson: I mentioned the support that we have been giving to mental health charities across the country. We will be doing much more over the winter to support the voluntary sector, which, as the hon. Lady rightly says, does a fantastic job of helping in this crisis.

Antony Higginbotham: People and businesses in Burnley and Padiham have had additional restrictions on them for most of the last seven months. While everyone is willing to make sacrifices, that is now taking its toll on our local economy. Could the Prime Minister assure me that not only will the support be put in place to get through the next month, but that when it comes to rebuilding our economy, the Government will put the same vigour into making sure we build back better?

Boris Johnson: I certainly will. It is in order to allow the economy to open up again in December that we are taking the steps we are now. I believe that this crisis must be met, as my hon. Friend rightly says, with a huge Government plan to build back better, which is exactly what we are going to do.

Tony Lloyd: The Prime Minister will know that Rochdale, Greater Manchester and large parts of the north have been under some form of restriction for many, many months. When we come out of this in early December, the one thing that the Prime Minister has to guarantee—he has not given us this today—is not simply that testing will have large numbers, but that the trace element of test, track and trace will really work. If it does not, he will be letting down the people of Greater Manchester, with the sacrifices they have made, and, frankly, the whole of the country.

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for what he says about the importance of testing. He is right. The capacity is massively increasing; as I said, it is up to 500,000. We are now testing more than any other country in Europe—I think 30 million tests have been conducted—but what needs to happen is that those who are contacted need to self-isolate. We will be making a  big, big push on that because at the moment, alas—I must be absolutely candid with the House—the proportion of people who are self-isolating in response to the urgings of NHS test, trace and isolate is not yet high enough.

Thomas Tugendhat: My right hon. Friend knows very well that the big challenge of lockdown for many people is the loss of agency, the loss of control over their own lives, and the inability therefore to control the mental health impacts that follow. He has had to balance—I understand this difficulty—health today over the implications for health tomorrow. What is he going to do to encourage agency in local communities, to encourage volunteering and to encourage charities? Even now, when many people would be getting ready to organise Remembrance Sunday services, the Government’s advice is sadly not up to date today, and I am sure that he will want to put that right so that people can take control of their own lives and have agency at this difficult time.

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to my hon. Friend, but I said in my statement earlier that Remembrance Sunday services can go ahead, provided they are socially distanced and outside. I think he is absolutely right in what he says, and we expressly want to encourage volunteering to help others in this difficult time.

Lilian Greenwood: Last Friday, 361 beds in Nottingham’s hospitals were occupied by covid patients—that is 40% higher than in April at the peak of the first wave. The trust has already been forced to cancel operations and there is still a huge backlog of elective surgeries from the first lockdown. Further cancelled operations will have a very serious impact on some patients’ quality of life but, frankly, the Prime Minister’s dither and delay in Nottingham, in going into tier 2 and in going into tier 3, and now on a national lockdown has made that almost inevitable. What extra support will he provide to Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust to ensure that every single one of my constituents who needs healthcare can access it this autumn?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to the people of Nottingham for what they are doing. The hon. Lady is absolutely right: it has been a very tough time, but they have been working very hard to get the infection rate down, and we will continue to support them. Specifically on the NHS, we are making a colossal investment, as she knows—a £34 billion investment even before the epidemic hit us. It is the biggest ever investment in the NHS.

Simon Jupp: Cases in the south-west remain lower than in most of England, although the numbers are heading in the wrong direction. We are well prepared in Devon with the Nightingale hospital in Exeter. We must take steps to ensure that our NHS is not put under severe strain this winter and keep our hospitals open for non-covid admissions. We have a duty to protect lives and livelihoods, and our local economy is already incredibly fragile. What assurances can the Prime Minister give East Devon that come 2 December, without a shred of doubt, the return to a regional tiered approach will happen to reduce the spread and keep businesses going?

Boris Johnson: I can tell my hon. Friend without a shred of doubt that these measures are time-limited and expire automatically on 2 December, and we will go back into the tiered system, depending on the data—though he is entirely right in what he says, alas, about the spread at the moment in the south-west. But it will depend on the state of the data at the time.

Carol Monaghan: Since the start of the first lockdown, we have been talking about the second wave, and we knew the current trajectory weeks ago, so it beggars belief that the Prime Minister ended up having to make an emergency announcement on Saturday. The devolved nations had to wait until infection rates in the south-east of England reached a dangerous level, and five hours before furlough was due to end, before he took action. Now that he acknowledges that we are in the second wave, will he devolve responsibility for furlough to the Scottish Parliament to ensure that we can support individuals and businesses in Scotland when they most need it?

Boris Johnson: As I have said several times today, Scotland has, at the moment, a slightly different approach. It retains a tiered approach, but furlough remains a UK scheme and available across the whole country.

Greg Smith: Professor Karol Sikora of the University of Buckingham Medical School concluded about the first lockdown:
“Many seriously ill people stayed at home, they protected the NHS, but it didn’t save their lives.”
This week, with Macmillan reporting up to 50,000 people with undiagnosed cancer due to covid restrictions, what reassurances can my right hon. Friend give me that, if this House does vote for a second lockdown on Wednesday, the Government will do absolutely everything necessary to avoid a repeat of Professor Sikora’s devastating conclusion from the first lockdown?

Boris Johnson: I understand the point that Professor Sikora makes, and I also understand the concerns of everybody who has cancer or who has a family member who suffers from cancer or any other life-threatening disease. It is precisely to protect those non-covid patients and to give them access to the NHS that we cannot allow our health service to be overwhelmed, as it would be on the current projections. That is why we must take the action that we are taking now. I hope that he sees the point and why it is precisely because we want to help cancer patients that we need to take this action now.

Emma Lewell-Buck: My constituent Elizabeth O’Connor lay in agony for six hours after fracturing her hip and breaking four ribs waiting for an ambulance. Her distressed daughters were unable to comfort her or to see her when she was initially admitted to hospital. Elizabeth suffers from dementia and lives in a care home. Throughout this pandemic, the Government’s treatment of care home residents, staff and families has been negligent and unforgivable. The very least that the Prime Minister can do is allow one family member to be treated as a key worker for visits to help ease some of this suffering. Why will he not do so?

Boris Johnson: I am so sorry about the case that the hon. Lady describes. I have met, as I am sure Members across the House have, bereaved family members of those who have lost their lives in care homes, who have not been able to visit them, and it is an absolute tragedy. All I can tell her is that we are doing our absolute best to allow people to visit their relatives in extreme circumstances, making sure that they have the necessary PPE. What we cannot have is another outbreak of the kind that we saw in care homes and, alas, the virus is transmitted readily in care homes and between care homes and we must not see that again.

John Baron: I commend the Prime Minister for his statement and will be supporting the Government on Wednesday. We must prioritise saving lives wherever possible, but may I suggest that the elderly should be allowed more leeway? Given that Sweden recently removed shielding advice for its over-70s, concluding that the general risks to their health from loneliness and isolation outweighed those from the virus, what cost-benefit analysis have the Government undertaken as to the balance of risks to public health and society from lockdown on the one hand and from the coronavirus on the other?

Boris Johnson: We are not bringing back shielding, as I mentioned earlier, although we do think that the elderly need to take special steps to protect themselves. In connection with Sweden, actually the Swedish example is not quite the slam-dunk that perhaps people think. Sweden does not, for instance, allow pupils over 15 to get back into school, whereas we prioritise keeping our schools open. That is the balance that we strike the whole time—a balance between keeping our economy moving as far as we can, keeping our schools open, and defeating the virus. That is what we are trying to do.

Alex Davies-Jones: We are now halfway through our firebreak lockdown in Wales, and much of the north-west, the north-east and the west midlands has faced significant local restrictions for months now. When devolved Administrations and local government argued that the 67% furlough scheme was insufficient, the UK Government said that it was the best they could do. Yet when similar restrictions were extended to England, including large swathes of the south, they then changed their minds and have gone back to 80%. Why do this Government have one rule for the south of England and another one for the rest of the United Kingdom?

Boris Johnson: The answer is that we have a different package of support for different measures, and that is entirely what you would expect. There is now uniformity, and it is our view that furlough remains available throughout the UK.

Steven Baker: My right hon. Friend will know the basis on which the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 is subject to judicial review. Would he look at the advice given to MPs by Lord Sumption this morning that now that Parliament is sitting throughout this lockdown, we could increase parliamentary scrutiny and the legitimacy of the lockdown by moving to using the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 instead of the Public Health Act 1984?

Boris Johnson: I thank my hon. Friend for his question. I can certainly reassure him that this measure is time-limited and will expire on 2 December. As for the legal basis, the Civil Contingencies Act has a strict test known as the triple lock that must be met before emergency regulations under the Act can be made. One of these tests is that there must not be existing powers elsewhere, and the Public Health Act 1984 offers clear powers to impose restrictions on public health grounds. That is why, despite his very useful suggestion, the Public Health Act is the more appropriate route.

Duncan Baker: No one is more disappointed with this lockdown than my constituents in North Norfolk. It is a bitter pill to swallow, as we have consistently been one of the lowest infection areas in the entire country. But the simple fact now is that in the past four weeks our hospital admissions have gone up over tenfold. So will the Prime Minister please tell us, and reassure my constituents, that we must now have these measures simply to protect my local health services so that they are not overrun?

Boris Johnson: I congratulate my hon. Friend on the clarity with which he puts the dilemma. Even in areas where the incidence has been very low, it is now climbing very fast.

Richard Thomson: It was reported at the weekend that the chair of the UK Government’s vaccine taskforce showed official sensitive Government documents to an event for US venture capitalists—a move that a former chairman of the Committee on Standards in Public Life described as “seriously ill-advised”. With jobs being awarded, even in the midst of a pandemic, without recourse to the approved recruitment processes, and billions of pounds of public procurement being awarded without going through open processes, what steps does the Prime Minister plan to take to restore public confidence in the competence and probity of his Government, and to help to reassure people that there is not a cronyvirus at the heart of his Government that requires eradication every bit as much as the coronavirus outside of it?

Boris Johnson: I thank people who are working pro bono on NHS Test and Trace, who come under repeated attack, or on our vaccine taskforce. It is thanks to their hard work that the UK is among the frontrunners in being on the verge of being able to deliver a vaccine. If and when a vaccine is produced next year—I must tell the House that it is by no means certain, but if and when it emerges—it will be at least partly thanks to their hard work.

Craig Williams: Will the Prime Minister please ensure that he works with the devolved Administrations to get a united approach for Christmas? My constituents and local businesses can ill afford the hokey-cokey of Wales out, England in, Wales back in and England back out.

Boris Johnson: We continue to work with the devolved Administrations and will do so throughout this pandemic.

Rosie Cooper: Will the Prime Minister indicate what assessment he has made of the idea of keeping gyms open during the new  lockdown to support people’s health and mental health? A low prevalence of transmission is attributed to the industry, and I have many people almost begging to be able to exercise in gyms.

Boris Johnson: With great regret, I must repeat the answer that I have given to colleagues from all parties this afternoon, which is that we have to put in a full package of measures to get the virus down. I set them out earlier, but people who wish to know exactly what they are should look at our website.

Julian Smith: I support the Prime Minister on the difficult balance and the difficult decision that he had to make this weekend, but I urge him, before he signs off on the guidance for care homes, to do everything possible to help families who visit loved ones in care homes and to look into things like the idea of a designated family member who would be tested regularly and able to visit.

Boris Johnson: My right hon. Friend is absolutely right that we want to do everything we can to enable loved ones to be visited in care homes. It is an exceptionally difficult dilemma, but we think repeated testing offers the way forward.

Chris Elmore: The Prime Minister could possibly be a bit confused. In his answer to my hon. Friend the Member for Pontypridd (Alex Davies-Jones), he said that the furlough scheme is available “throughout the UK”. On 16 October, the Welsh First Minister asked the Chancellor to extend the furlough scheme from 67% of pay to 80%. On 19 October, the Chancellor told the First Minister that that could not be done for “technical reasons”. What are those technical reasons? Or is this more about the fact that when it suits the Prime Minister, furlough applies to the whole UK, and when it does not suit him for party political reasons, it does not?

Boris Johnson: We are going back into measures across England that are necessary to drive the R down. They differ from the measures currently obtaining in Scotland, but in so far as people across this country need furlough, in Wales or elsewhere, they have access to furlough. It is a UK-wide system.

Gareth Johnson: Doctors are between two and five times more likely to take their lives than the general population. In 2018, my constituent Dr Jagdip Sidhu was a consultant cardiologist at Darent Valley Hospital. He was at the cutting edge of medical treatment but, alas, could not cope with the pressure that he faced and, sadly, he took his own life. Does the Prime Minister agree that it is vital that we do as much as possible for the welfare of clinicians during what is going to be a very challenging time for the profession?

Boris Johnson: I am deeply sorry to hear about that loss of life—the suicide of my hon. Friend’s constituent, Dr Jagdip Sidhu. All I can say is that we are doing everything we can to support NHS care for its staff, their wellbeing and their mental health. I urge anybody in the NHS who is aware of a colleague who is struggling with their mental health to come forward and seek help.

Charlotte Nichols: Will the Prime Minister please tell the House how many people  he estimates were laid off in anticipation of the furlough scheme ending before its last-minute extension, and whether he will make an apology to them?

Boris Johnson: I think most fair-minded people would think that this Government have done everything they can to support people throughout this crisis. We are not only extending the furlough scheme but massively increasing help for the self-employed. We have already put £200 billion into supporting people across the country and we will continue to do so.

Nicholas Fletcher: I agree with my right hon. Friend that keeping children in school is the right thing to do. However, across the country, children who have received a positive covid test are being sent home, yet there will be circumstances in which they return to school, only to be sent home again because another pupil in their class has contracted the virus. In those instances, will the Government consider allowing children who have returned after testing positive to stay in school, since they are most likely to have built up an immunity to the disease?

Boris Johnson: My hon. Friend raises an important point. That is why we want to roll out the mass testing in the way that we are: to isolate the positive cases, liberate the negatives and allow children to remain in school as much as possible.

Stella Creasy: A local mum, Mel, texted me this morning. She is terrified because she works in a supermarket and has only recently returned to work after shielding because she has a serious medical condition. As lockdown returns, she is worried that if she shields again, she will lose her job, but if she does not, she will lose her life. What employment protection will the Prime Minister offer those who are clinically vulnerable in jobs that cannot be furloughed, so that people like Mel do not have to choose between their lives and their livelihoods?

Boris Johnson: I would like to study the case that the hon. Member mentions, because we are saying to those who are clinically vulnerable that they should not go to work but work from home. I would be grateful if the hon. Member sent me the details of her case so that we can establish exactly what help her constituent is entitled to, because she should be entitled to furlough.

Robbie Moore: My constituents in Keighley and Ilkley have had local restrictions since July and we are now in tier 2. Today, we were due to go into tier 3, with announcements on that last week, but that has been cancelled because we are now going into national restrictions. I cannot stress enough, on behalf of all my constituents and my local businesses, particularly the small and medium-sized businesses, which are the backbone of Keighley and Ilkley, the importance of clarity and clear and concise messaging, as well as financial support for all those who are impacted. Will my right hon. Friend explain why tier 3 is no longer appropriate to slow the impact on hospitals, and shine a light on the exit strategy from the national restrictions?

Boris Johnson: I understand why the people of Keighley feel frustrated after so long. Their efforts have not been in vain in tier 3—they have helped to get the R down and to depress the incidence of the disease—but we must now make a national effort to get it below 1 because it is taking off again. The way out, as I have already told the House, is to do that now, over November, open up again in December, and get going with all the technological improvements that I described, particularly the mass testing that I outlined. That, I believe, is the way forward, but it depends on our getting the R below 1 now.

Imran Hussain: Many of my constituents from all faiths have raised serious concerns about the restrictions that will effectively close religious institutions at a time when people need more than ever the comfort and security that their faith provides, putting a heavy burden on people’s mental health. Places of worship have gone to great lengths to put covid-secure measures in place and have demonstrated that congregational prayers can safely happen, with Bradford Council for Mosques in particular leading on that work. I urge the Prime Minister to look again at places of worship and more measured policies. Given that they have had no financial support since the beginning of the pandemic, will he ensure that they get the financial support they need?

Boris Johnson: I really appreciate what mosques around the country have done to make themselves covid secure, and what has been done in Bradford and elsewhere. I know how frustrating it is for places of worship that we have had to take these steps. All I can say is that we need to take them together as a country to get the R down and to get the virus down. We will continue to ensure that people get the support they need in the way that I outlined earlier.

Saqib Bhatti: I thank my right hon. Friend for his statement: 2020 has been desperately difficult for the whole country, and I know that he is committed to ending these new measures by 2 December. Many of my constituents are worried about what will happen afterwards, so can he commit to doing everything he can to ensure that we will have some sort of normal Christmas and at least have measures in place so that households will be able to mix by 25 December?

Boris Johnson: Yes, and I am conscious that we have Diwali, Hanukkah and many religious celebrations coming up in December. I do want people to have as normal a Christmas as possible, and that is why I think it is very important that the whole country comes together to follow these measures. I am sure that if we do, we can get the R down in the way that I have described, and people will have as normal a Christmas as possible.

Alan Brown: The Prime Minister has rightly stated that this lockdown is to protect the English NHS. When it comes to support, he also keeps telling Scottish MPs that we have just to be happy that the extended furlough scheme is UK-wide. If we really are in a partnership of equals, will he confirm that businesses in Kilmarnock and Loudoun will get the same level of support if it is needed in the  future to protect our local NHS, or will it only be available during this period of protecting south-east England?

Boris Johnson: Of course, the whole of the country will get funds to protect the NHS, as it has throughout this pandemic. As I have said already this afternoon, there has been £7.2 billion already in Barnett consequentials just to tackle covid.

Huw Merriman: The Prime Minister has an unenviable set of decisions that he has to make, but will he recognise the frustration that residents in East Sussex feel? We have one of the lowest covid rates of any county across England—admissions for covid in East Sussex Healthcare Trust are currently 20 and not one placed in a high-dependency unit—so the residents have clearly done the right thing, but they are faced with a national lockdown. Can the Prime Minister demonstrate to me that the damage that will be caused to East Sussex by locking down—to our economy, our liberty, our lives and our livelihoods—would be a lot worse were we to do absolutely nothing?

Boris Johnson: Well, it is a very difficult balance to strike, as he rightly says, but I think that the medical data is, alas, overwhelming. The virus is doubling everywhere, including in East Sussex, and eventually the NHS would be overwhelmed even in East Sussex with, I am afraid, catastrophic consequences. We can prevent that by taking the action that we are, and that is why I hope he will support it.

Lucy Powell: I do not know about you, Mr Speaker, but I am still not clear what has actually changed from two or three weeks ago, when the Prime Minister ridiculed my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition, apart from the Prime Minister yet again changing his strategy. As he himself has said, infection rate rises have slowed over that period and hospital admissions reflect the infection rate from two or three weeks ago. This was entirely predictable, and indeed it was predicted. Given that the Prime Minister cannot stick with a plan for more than a week, can he now give some real clarity about the criteria for the exit strategy from this national lockdown?

Boris Johnson: The hon. Lady asks what has changed in the past couple of weeks. I am afraid the facts have changed, and the number of people admitted to hospital, as I said, is up every day. We now have 2,000 more people in hospital this Sunday than last Sunday. We cannot escape these inescapable facts. She also asks about the exit strategy and, as I have told the House several times, the way forward is to get the R down below 1 with a package of measures that I believe carries support across the House, and to exploit the many technical advances that we are making.

Philip Davies: I say to the Prime Minister that as a Conservative I do not believe that collapsing the economy is ever the right solution to any problem. That is why, I thought, we campaigned so hard to stop the right hon. Member for Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn) becoming Prime Minister. Can the Prime Minister therefore tell me how many collapsed businesses and how many job losses he and his Government believe are a price worth paying to continue pursuing this failed strategy of lockdowns and arbitrary restrictions?

Boris Johnson: I share my hon. Friend’s desire to protect the economy, and I believe fervently that we need to get as big and as fast a bounce-back as we possibly can, but I also think, alas, that the data is inescapable. If we are to avert the loss of many thousands of lives, this is the only option. If he looks at the statistics and the sheer number of fatalities that we could incur, I believe he will agree that it is the right way forward.

Rupa Huq: I have heard what the Prime Minister said about congregational worship for faith groups, and it strikes me sitting here that the measures taken at Ealing abbey—four to a pew with every other pew roped off, hand sanitiser and a one-way system—are exactly what we have in this place. Does this not therefore seem contradictory? Does he have any message of hope for the monks there? As someone who might be marching down the aisle himself, does he have any message for the weddings industry? I have an Asian wedding costumier. She thought she would be ruined by the restrictions, but now weddings are completely gone. Does he have any hope for any of these people?

Boris Johnson: The wedding industry, in common with everything else, will we hope very much be able to start again on 2 December.

Siobhan Baillie: Maternity leave does not just mean sleep deprivation; I have been in Stroud on the ground witnessing the superb local response from our NHS and from businesses working to get covid safe, Slimbridge Swans going up in their league and shops opening on our high streets, but now the Government are telling us to park that and hibernate. Can he speak directly to my tier 1 Stroud communities and convince them that their efforts have not been wasted and that all those covid-safe businesses and organisations will be out of lockdown in December or sooner if we can provide evidence to show that?

Boris Johnson: Yes, of course, because it is thanks to the efforts of her constituents in Stroud that the R is not very far above 1 right now. If we all follow the package of measures that I have outlined today and we all stay at home in the way that I have described, we will be able to open up again on 2 December.

Maria Eagle: Does the Prime Minister understand that extending the furlough scheme on the very day it was supposed to end, and doing so for just a month, means that in reality many of my constituents whose jobs were furloughed have already been made redundant by their employers in anticipation of its non-availability after 31 October? Can those people be re-employed and furloughed until the scheme’s new endpoint? Can he tell me whether people who have changed jobs since the original furlough scheme was closed to new applicants are eligible to be furloughed by their new employers, who might not have registered for the scheme by the time it closed to new applicants a few months ago?

Boris Johnson: I hope very much that people will not have been laid off in anticipation of the end of furlough, because there is the job retention scheme and the bonus as well at the end of the year. To discover  exactly what entitlements people have under the extended furlough scheme, they should get on to the website. I think that most people appreciate that the Government have done a huge amount to support people throughout the crisis and are continuing to do so in the latest phase, as well as supporting the self-employed.

Richard Holden: My constituents in North West Durham understand the very difficult decisions that the Prime Minister is having to take and the very difficult balances he is having to strike, but will he confirm to them and to the House that the tier 4 measures will end on 2 December? Also, will he confirm for the many local parents who have got in touch, concerned that schools could be closed, that schools will remain open throughout this period?

Boris Johnson: Schools will indeed remain open. I thank the teachers, parents and pupils of this country. I can confirm to my hon. Friend that these measures will end on 2 December in exactly the way that I have set out.

Douglas Chapman: Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland taxpayers pool their tax resources to the Treasury, but when it comes to sharing it seems that only English taxpayers benefit from flexibility. In this crisis, we cannot have the English tail wagging the three nations dog, so I will ask this question again: will the Prime Minister give the Scottish Government and the devolved Administrations the powers to requisition the cash from the Treasury to support furlough schemes when that cash is required in each nation?

Boris Johnson: The furlough scheme is a UK-wide scheme. It is of course available to Scotland and the people of Scotland. At the moment Scotland has slightly different arrangements, but £7.2 billion has already been given in Barnett consequentials to support the people of Scotland throughout the crisis, and more will be forthcoming.

Peter Bone: I have been very supportive of the Prime Minister’s policy of having local and regional lockdowns, depending on the severity of the disease in a particular area, and there is some good news today: I understand that 5% fewer covid cases were reported today than seven days ago. Can the Prime Minister explain why the new lockdown measures will not be tier 4 and only apply to areas where there is significant infection, keeping the other areas in the lower tiers, allowing businesses to continue to trade and families to continue to mix?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to my hon. Friend for his support, but the reality is that at the moment the virus is doubling across the country. We have to take the measures that we have outlined to get the increase down, and we will then be reopening in the way that he describes and recommends, going back into a tiered system, reflecting what is happening locally and regionally.

Steve McCabe: I am afraid that for too many people leadership has now become a crucial factor. Has the Prime Minister considered making way for someone with a skillset better suited to get us through this crisis?

Boris Johnson: No, Mr Speaker.

Anthony Mangnall: I do not mind saying that my constituents believe in the Prime Minister’s leadership and have felt reassured by the measures this Government have put in place to protect them. However, given that there is an economic impact from this lockdown and that will have an impact on livelihoods, what can the Prime Minister do to reassure my constituents, who have striven so hard since the relaxation of the lockdown on 4 July, that there is a brighter future and there will not be mission creep in terms of a lockdown beyond 2 December?

Boris Johnson: I cannot say often enough that this is a time-limited lockdown and it ends on 2 December unless this House decides to extend measures of one kind or another. Any further measures will be a matter for this House, and it is fully my intention that the lockdown should end on 2 December.

Jessica Morden: May I echo the frustration expressed by hon. Friends representing Welsh constituencies that the Prime Minister acted on furlough only when setting out England-wide action? As he has not explicitly said this, will he confirm that furlough support will be backdated in Wales? What funding will come to Wales as a result of the business grant support announced on Saturday?

Boris Johnson: We will continue to support all parts of the UK, as we have throughout this crisis.

Bob Seely: I applaud very much the Prime Minister’s attempts to avoid a national lockdown. There are no simple answers—that is very clear—which is why data is so important. Oxford’s Carl Heneghan has said, sadly, that the Government’s advisers have made predictions, projections and illustrations that, when validated against what happened, were “abysmal”. Does the Prime Minister share my concerns that these are not isolated cases and that academics are showing concern about the data? Will he please publish in full the four studies that have gone into the work this weekend, as well as a fuller analysis of lockdowns versus shielding policies so that people can start to understand and trust the information being put out?

Boris Johnson: My hon. Friend is entirely right to want to look at all the data and all the projections, and I am very happy that we have shared everything; everything that I have seen is available to him as well.

Bambos Charalambous: There are 79 care homes in Enfield looking after sick and vulnerable residents who are at a greatly increased risk of death if they catch coronavirus, so can the Prime Minister give me his assurance that Enfield Council and Enfield’s care homes will not be put under pressure to take covid-positive patients upon their discharge from hospital?

Boris Johnson: Yes, indeed. We are making sure that no patients are discharged from the NHS without being properly tested, and in so far as they may go into care homes for reasons that are absolutely unavoidable, those care homes must be Care Quality Commission-approved environments where they can be properly looked after and not at risk of infection.

William Wragg: As models of athleticism, the Prime Minister and I know of the benefits of regular gym-going—not only for physical health, but for mental wellbeing. Knowing that repetition is not a cardinal sin in this House, will he therefore reconsider the intention to close gyms, particularly given the great endeavours that they have made to make themselves covid secure?

Boris Johnson: I am really grateful to my hon. Friend, who is echoing a point that has been made by many hon. Members around the House. I would love to be able to exempt all sorts of activities, sporting or otherwise, but we must get the R down. This is the package that does it.

Barbara Keeley: This pandemic has made the problems with our social care system clear. High staff vacancy rates and a reliance on agency staff contributed to the spread of the virus. Lack of funding meant a struggle to afford inflated prices for PPE. The weakness of our social care system ended up costing lives.
During the first wave, social care was an afterthought for the Government. To ensure that it is better supported in the second wave, will the Prime Minister confirm that the Government will consider investing the £3.9 billion in social care recommended by the Health and Social Care Committee, as a starting point for reform?

Boris Johnson: The hon. Lady makes an excellent point; I am glad that she cited the amount that we have already invested in social care. We do indeed intend to use this moment to deliver long-lasting reform of social care in this country.

Douglas Ross: The Prime Minister is right: the furlough scheme is UK-wide for the next month. But the crucial answer that we need is whether it will be available to other nations of the United Kingdom if, in future, the science demands that further lockdowns are required anywhere in the country. If he cannot give that commitment, will he explain why it seems that an English job is more important than a Welsh, Northern Irish or Scottish one?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to my hon. Friend, but I must repeat what I have said several times already this afternoon: the furlough scheme is a UK-wide scheme. If other parts of the UK decide to go into measures that require the furlough scheme, then of course it is available to them. That has to be right. That applies not just now but of course in the future as well.

Daniel Zeichner: Arts organisations have responded with flair to the existential crisis of the loss of their audience, but just as they are about to recover by going for live streamings from closed venues—I am thinking of organisations such as the Cambridge Jazz Festival and the London Jazz Festival—they face a  new threat. Will the Prime Minister confirm that those closed venues will be treated as a workplace and allow them to continue?

Boris Johnson: I will study the matter that the hon. Gentleman refers to. I cannot see any reason why that should not be the case, but I will get back to him.

Pete Wishart: I think I just heard the Prime Minister confirm to the hon. Member for Moray (Douglas Ross) that if the Scottish Government require furlough funds beyond 2 December, those will be available to Scotland. Can he now get to his feet and confirm that that is what he said and that that is what he meant?

Boris Johnson: The furlough scheme is a UK-wide scheme and will continue to be available wherever it is needed.

Ben Bradley: Sport and exercise are hugely important for the health and wellbeing of the nation. Youth and children’s outdoor sports are low risk in terms of both age groups and the activities, while people can take part in other sports such as golf without ever coming into contact with another soul. Such activities could help to mitigate some of the more negative impacts, both physical and mental, of lockdown, and in my view the benefits outweigh the risks. Will the Prime Minister consider very carefully allowing some of these outdoor low-risk activities to continue?

Boris Johnson: I am grateful to my hon. Friend, but I must repeat what I said earlier on: there is a wide range of activities that many people would like to pursue, but the risk is that they will have chains of human contact whether they like it or not, and increase the risk of transmission. That is why we have set out the measures that we have.

Angela Eagle: Did the Chancellor veto an earlier, shorter circuit breaker lockdown, or can the 40 days of dither and delay that are likely to cost thousands of extra lives lost and billions in damage to our economy all be laid at the door of the Prime Minister?

Boris Johnson: The answer to the hon. Lady’s first question is “absolutely not”, but as I have already explained, any Government will hesitate for an age before imposing lockdown measures that take such a toll on people’s mental health, their jobs and their livelihoods. If she looks at what we are doing, we are doing it earlier in the curve than some other European countries. I think it is the right thing at the right time, and I very much hope she will support this package of measures.

Rehman Chishti: I welcome the Prime Minister’s statement. My specific question is with regards to support for the independent small business sector. My constituent Rodney Chambers operates a small card and gift shop in Gillingham. Cards and gifts are considered non-essential, so he will now have to close his shop just before the Christmas period—the busiest period of the year for him. At the same time, he will see another shop down  the road in Gillingham selling cards and gifts but also cleaning products, and that shop will be able to stay open. That, to me, seems unfair. Given the Government’s excellent support for businesses in the previous lockdown, can the Prime Minister please ensure that those small business that now have to close will be given the extra support they need in these difficult, challenging times?

Boris Johnson: I appreciate that there are many apparent inconsistencies in a package of measures that no one wants to impose on this country, and my hon. Friend is right to draw the distinction between the two shops he describes. What I can tell him is that, in common with all businesses throughout the country, they will continue to receive the support that they need.

Chris Matheson: Whether it is the self-employed, small business owners who pay themselves via dividends, or people who were timed out last time, there are still 3 million people excluded in the UK. Will the Prime Minister resist the temptation to simply roll over the current arrangements, and address those 3 million excluded? I have to say to the Prime Minister that these measures are unpopular but they are necessary, and people will buy into them if they feel supported, but they will not buy into them if they feel they are continuing to be excluded by this Government, nor will their friends and family.

Boris Johnson: The hon. Gentleman is entirely right. That is why we want to put our arms around the people of this country; it is why we are not only putting a huge amount of investment in jobs and livelihoods, but supporting the universal credit system by putting another £9 billion into welfare, plus making big investments in councils to help people who are falling on hard times. He is right to draw attention to those tough cases, and we will do everything we can to help them through this, but it is very important that everybody who has the disease and who is contacted does the right thing and self-isolates.

Pauline Latham: As No. 88 on the call list, I thank the Prime Minister for remaining on his feet and answering so many questions. I would like to point out two things: one is that golf is a really popular sport, and if people are not allowed to go into the golf club except to use the facilities—the toilets—rather than the bar, would it not be possible for them to be able to exercise, playing their golf, with maybe a maximum of two people, if not four? That would give them exercise and help their mental health.
The other point is that supermarkets can sell alcohol, but pubs cannot sell it at all if they are doing a takeaway service. Small breweries are really going to suffer because of this, because they have beer in their tanks ready to go that they will have to pour down the drain again. Could we not look at creating a level playing field for selling alcohol on a takeaway-only basis?

Boris Johnson: I thank my hon. Friend for the ingenious suggestions that she makes. We will take them away and study them both carefully—both points are valid—but I must repeat to her, regretfully, the point I have made many times this afternoon about the  overall budget of risk that we carry, the need to get the R down and the need to stop the spread of the disease, which is now paramount. Golf and everything else will be able to resume, I devoutly hope, on 2 December.

Mike Amesbury: Beyond this belated national lockdown—let us say on 2 December —will northern workers in tier 3 areas be worth 80% of furlough or 67%? Which will it be?

Boris Johnson: That is an important point, but we will be deciding which tier regions need to go back into, if any, as we come towards 2 December—in the week before 2 December. We will be announcing that then, and we will also be announcing the financial package at that time.

Geoffrey Clifton-Brown: Would my right hon. Friend be very kind and explain to my constituents, who contacted me in their hundreds over the weekend worried about their mental health, their jobs and businesses, why in Gloucestershire, which had only one hospitalised death last week, it makes any sense to lock down all those people?

Boris Johnson: That is exactly why we wanted to pursue the local approach for so long, and that is why I think it was always right to try to avoid a national lockdown for as long as we could. The difficulty is that the overall rate across the whole country is now speeding up and the virus is doubling across the entire country. I would be happy to publish all the data, as my hon. Friend knows.

Matt Western: Yesterday, Sir Jeremy Farrar made it quite clear that the scientific evidence and advice given to the Government had been crystal clear that they must go earlier and harder. Their delay, of course, is now impacting businesses, education and health across the country; according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the cost of the two-week delay is £20 billion. My question is very simple: it is an expensive mistake, so who is going to pick up the tab?

Boris Johnson: There is a wealth of scientific advice, and we have heard from other parts of the House this afternoon that there are scientists who do not believe that these measures are necessary. We have to look at the balance of the advice. We had to take a very difficult decision based on the welfare of the country, the health of the country, saving lives but also protecting the economy. That is why we came to the judgment that we did.

Anne Marie Morris: I have a particular concern with regard to those individuals with a health problem that is not covid-related. My hon. Friend the Member for Altrincham and Sale West (Sir Graham Brady) asked whether the Prime Minister had made an impact assessment. He responded with regard to the economy, but he did not confirm whether there had been an assessment of the non-covid health impact across primary, secondary and tertiary care—not just hospital beds—or, indeed,  whether he would publish it. I should be grateful for his confirmation that there is one and that he will publish it.

Boris Johnson: Yes, indeed. I apologise to my hon. Friend the Member for Altrincham and Sale West (Sir Graham Brady) if I did not understand his question, but we certainly can publish all the evidence that we have about the consequences for non-covid patients of failing to keep the autumn surge of covid under control. There is abundant evidence that overwhelming the NHS in the course of the next few weeks and months would do huge damage to people’s ability to access the services they need for cancer, for heart disease and for many other types of interventions that people need, in addition to covid. I would be very happy to share that with both my hon. Friend the Member for Newton Abbot (Anne Marie Morris) and my hon. Friend the Member for Altrincham and Sale West.

Kevin Brennan: When SAGE advised a national firebreak lockdown, the Welsh First Minister introduced one, which my constituents are now undertaking here in Cardiff West. Given the Prime Minister’s statement today, does he agree that Mark Drakeford was right to act?

Boris Johnson: As I have said throughout this afternoon, I make no apology for doing my utmost to keep this economy going and to keep our kids in school, as indeed we are, and for avoiding the consequences of a national lockdown. The hon. Member will have heard the voices that have been raised across the House throughout this afternoon, both in favour of a lockdown and the many passionately against it. We have a very difficult balancing job to do—balancing lives, balancing livelihoods—and that is what we are doing.

Alberto Costa: These are challenging times, but I have some warm words for the Prime Minister for the work that he is doing. Oakberry Christmas tree farm, run by Richard and Gail in my South Leicestershire constituency, is one of Britain’s premier growers and sellers of festive trees. Thankfully, Oakberry Trees comes under the category of garden centres, and is therefore able to remain open over the next few weeks. Can my right hon. Friend give some words of encouragement—of cheer—to those businesses that are able to remain open in providing essential goods and services to our constituents as long as they remain covid-compliant in their working practices?

Boris Johnson: Yes. I thank my hon. Friend, and I am very glad that Oakberry Christmas trees is able to remain open. I am told that it provided No. 10 with a free Christmas tree five years ago; that is not meant to be any kind of hint, by the way. I know that it is one of the UK’s premier Christmas tree farms, and I thank them for what they are doing.

Steven Bonnar: The Scottish Government have repeatedly called for months for an extension to the furlough scheme. However, such calls were completely ignored,  with the uncertainty resulting in the loss of many jobs here in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill. He may not wish to think it, but that is the reality of this Prime Minister’s governance. It is lost on absolutely nobody that the Prime Minister refused to extend furlough until the 11th hour, and only did so when the situation in the south of England ran out of control. At the risk of seeming disbelieving, I must ask him to confirm his U-turn: does the Prime Minister now fully commit to an extension of the furlough scheme available across all nations of the UK on a when-required basis to protect further against otherwise preventable job losses in Scotland and elsewhere?

Boris Johnson: Listening to the Scottish nationalists, one would have thought that furlough had not applied in Scotland over the last few months. It has been available throughout the UK throughout this period, and will continue to be a UK-wide solution.

Steve Brine: The Prime Minister is doing his best, and I for one have great grace for him on the impossible decisions he has to take. I have to say to him that the weariness and, it must be said, anger of my constituents in Winchester that we are here again are palpable. There is also widespread scepticism about whether a second national lockdown is right or fair on Hampshire, but we have covered that issue many times, I know. To help us all, can the Prime Minister tell me what we did not do in June and July, when rates were right down after lockdown No. 1, that we should have done, and what therefore are the lessons for after 2 December as we try to make the most of lockdown 2.0?

Boris Johnson: I thank the people of Winchester for what they are doing. I know how frustrating it is, and believe me—I hope it is obvious from everything I have said this afternoon—I entirely share people’s frustrations, but NHS Test and Trace has achieved many things with, as I said, the 500,000 capacity now per day. Where I think we should have pushed harder was on actually insisting that, when people were contacted, they isolated. It does not look to me as though the numbers or the proportions have been good enough. We need to get those up in the next phase—but we can and we will, and we will get it done.

Toby Perkins: We all recognise that the Prime Minister has got a difficult job, but by God he is doing it badly. He said a few moments ago that he is having to balance lives and livelihoods, but does he not realise that his delay is costing lives and livelihoods? Businesses will fold, people will lose their jobs and the strain on our NHS will be greater because he failed to take the advice of SAGE and my right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer). Will the Prime Minister at least now acknowledge the failure of his policy and start getting in front of this business, rather than always playing catch-up and costing lives and livelihoods?

Boris Johnson: I make no apology for continuing to resist going back into a national lockdown, with all the consequences for mental health and for people’s lives and livelihoods, in the way that I  did. If we look at what has happened, we see that, alas, in this country, as across much of Europe—I pay tribute to people in areas where the incidence is low, who have kept it low—there has been an upsurge of the virus overall. Plenty of scientists and medical advisers were absolutely categorical that a local and regional approach was commonsensical and rational and right. Indeed, the Labour party supported it, if I remember correctly. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman even supported it. What they then decided to do is a matter for them. What I think the people of this country want to see at this very, very difficult moment is politicians coming together to take the country forward, to agree on the measures—[Interruption.] The Labour party supported what we were doing. The people want us to agree on the measures, and to get the country through these latest measures to tackle the autumn surge and out the other side on 2 December, because that is the best way forward for our country.

Edward Leigh: We are almost at the end of this statement now and the Prime Minister has answered the questions with his characteristic charm and skill, but, however strong, I am sure he will not resist the offer of more help and hope. So will he join me at daily mass in Westminster cathedral tomorrow? Would he like to witness the extreme social distancing, the constant cleansing after services and the mask wearing—all factors taken far more seriously there than almost anywhere else? Would he like to respond to Cardinal Vincent Nichols and give him the evidence as to why there is any possibility, after all these measures, of religious services spreading covid? Could the Prime Minister offer some hope to the faith communities? Could he perhaps reply to the letter I have sent to him, where we suggest further compromises, for instance, whereby we would have to apply by email before we attended services? Can he offer us any hope at all?

Boris Johnson: Of course I can. I thank my right hon. Friend for what he has just said and I am so sorry that the faith communities temporarily must go through this difficult period of not being able to observe services in the way that they want and I would like. This is only for 28 days and the hope I can offer—the candle in the darkness—is that we will, if we get this right, be able to go back to something much more like normal life before Christmas and people will be able to celebrate Christmas, in churches and elsewhere across this country.

Munira Wilson: Experts are clear that lockdowns merely defer, rather than solve, the problem and buy us time. They are united in the  opinion that until we have a vaccine, a robust system to test, trace and isolate every case is the best way both to keep people safe and to protect our economy, yet we have heard nothing today that will address the woeful rates of contact tracing or how we improve support and incentives for self-isolation, which the Prime Minister has admitted is not working. What is he going to do to ensure that we avoid a boom and bust cycle of lockdowns and that he will not squander this lockdown like he did the last one, with us back here in January or February discussing the same issue again?

Boris Johnson: If I may so, the hon. Lady raises the most important point, the one we have been circling around all afternoon. In common with much of the rest of Europe, we are seeing an autumn surge now. I believe we have the right package of measures to address it. As for how we avoid endlessly going in and out of these types of measures in the way that she describes, I think the answer lies not just in getting people to self-isolate, but in mass testing—the lateral flow tests and the loop mediated isothermal amplification, or LAMP, tests of the kind I have described, which will not only help to drive down the R by isolating the positive cases, but liberate the negative cases to go about their lives much more normally. That is the game changer we can all look forward to.

Jason McCartney: I thank the Prime Minister for answering all 99 questions before mine. My constituents have pretty much been under local restrictions since the start of August, with the impact on local businesses, wellbeing and mental health. I ask the Prime Minister to continue to ask the Chancellor to support businesses in the supply chain for the hospitality industry, such as food and drink businesses and microbreweries, and to look again at whether we can have some covid-safe outdoor exercise such as golf, tennis and exercise classes to support wellbeing and mental health.

Boris Johnson: I will look carefully at my hon. Friend’s point about microbreweries, which he has raised with me before. We can have covid-secure golf, covid-secure tennis, covid-secure whatever he likes in 28 days’ time. We just have to get through this difficult period. I apologise for it; I am sorry that the nation has to do it, but it is by far the best way forward for the country.

Lindsay Hoyle: In order to allow the safe exit of hon. Members participating in this item of business and the safe arrival of those participating in the next, I now suspend the House for three minutes.
Sitting suspended.

Business of the House

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I should like to make a short business statement following on from the earlier announcement by my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister.
Tomorrow’s business remains as previously announced. However, the first item of business on Wednesday 4 November will now be a motion to approve the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020.
This will be followed by consideration of Lords amendments to the Agriculture Bill and consideration of Lords amendments to the Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill.
The House will then be asked to approve the following regulations: the draft Blood Safety and Quality (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020; the draft Human Fertilisation and Embryology (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020; the draft Human Tissue (Quality and Safety for Human Application) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020; and the draft Quality  and Safety of Organs Intended for Transplantation (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020.
The business for Thursday remains unchanged to that previously announced, and I shall also make a further statement announcing future business on Thursday.

Valerie Vaz: I thank the Leader of the House for his business statement. My party, of course, agrees with the business changing in this way. We have just heard the Prime Minister make one of the gravest statements. We are going to enter a lockdown of four weeks, and we are asking our fellow citizens to do something that they have not done before. The Leader of the House and the Prime Minister sometimes talk about “Captain Hindsight”, but was the Leader of the Opposition not Captain Foresight, because he called for a lockdown two weeks earlier? He did so because, as the Leader of the House will know, the number of deaths could be higher than it was in March.
We are asking people to stay at home, and many of our colleagues will be staying at home. The Leader of the House read out a list of legislation. In UK Parliament Week of all weeks, many of our colleagues cannot even represent their constituents. They are excluded from taking part in debates. They are excluded from voting. That is not only bad for their constituents; it is bad for democracy. Worst of all, we all have to line up together to vote. There is one simple way of dealing with that. May I ask him again to think very seriously, in this grave time, about us going back to remote voting? Those who can be here and need to be here will be here, but we must think about the safety of the House staff who have to marshal us into what we hope will be two different queues. I ask him to think very seriously, at this very serious time, about us going back to remote voting and to enable our colleagues to take part in debates on behalf of their constituents. I am sure he will agree that it is outrageous that they cannot represent their constituents. They must do that. He must look at this immediately, to save lives and livelihoods.

Jacob Rees-Mogg: The right hon. Lady is aware that, just before the recess, the House took the decision to extend the current arrangements for virtual participation to March 2021, to ensure that people who cannot be here for a range of reasons can vote by proxy and participate in interrogative proceedings. I therefore think it is inaccurate to say that there are Members who cannot vote, because proxy arrangements have been put in place that allow them to do so. Those arrangements were agreed without either debate or Division, so they had consensus across the House. If there were to be any changes to our voting system, they should be introduced through consensus. As the right hon. Lady knows, I am looking at the option of expanding proxy voting to make it available to all Members of the House, regardless of whether or not they need to be away from the parliamentary estate. I hope to bring forward a motion to that effect soon, which the House will have an opportunity to agree.
It is important that Members are here and that the business of the House carries on. Why is that? We have to ensure that these new coronavirus regulations—some of the tightest restrictions on the freedoms of the people of this country ever introduced—are properly debated and that the Government are held to account. We have to ensure that constituency issues can be raised freely, fairly and clearly by hon. and right hon. Members. We have to ensure that the transition period legislation is introduced and passed into law by 31 December. It is crucial that we are able to do those things.
We found during the fully hybrid proceedings that we were not able to carry on with the full range of activities. I am glad to say that Westminster Hall has returned. We are operating a full schedule of business, so that democracy is allowed to flourish. I think the right hon. Lady underestimates the need for democratic accountability. Being present in this House is as important as any other essential service.

Mark Harper: May I ask the Leader of the House to confirm—forgive me if I missed this—that the debate on the second lockdown on Wednesday will be a full day’s debate? I do not think that 90 minutes would really do it justice. In his statement earlier—in answer, I think, to the question from the right hon. Member for North Durham (Mr Jones)—the Prime Minister said that all the scientific information that underpins the decisions that the House is being asked to take would be published. May I ask the Leader of the House: by when will that information be published so that we can make a proper decision on Wednesday?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: The motion on Wednesday will be a motion under an Act and it will be a 90-minute debate. I understand my right hon. Friend’s pressing for further time for debate and I would normally be very sympathetic to it, but immediately after I have finished, there is a day’s debate on the situation relating to covid, the Prime Minister has just answered questions for two hours, and on the Thursday before we went into recess there was a full day’s debate on the coronavirus. I therefore think that the time for debate has been as ample as it can be considering the pressures of business. One of the problems is that there is never enough time to debate all that one would wish to debate, but under the circumstances it is right to follow the normal proceedings of this House. I am sure that if a commitment has been given to publish information, it will be published in a timely way.

Tommy Sheppard: The measures to be debated on Wednesday will be for England only and it is not for Scottish MPs to determine what restrictions the people of England should suffer. But I do hope that the Leader of the House will understand the real anger and frustration that the people in Scotland will have when they look at what is happening. For months we have asked for an extension of the furlough scheme and for months we have been told no, but now that stricter measures are thought necessary in England, furlough is to be extended across the UK. Despite repeated questioning earlier, the Prime Minister was ambiguous about whether furlough would now be available to support measures undertaken by the devolved national Governments if such measures were not felt necessary in England. As it stands, we must therefore assume that if the measures proposed for England are discontinued on 2 December, furlough support will be ended in Scotland too—even if businesses there were still mandated to close. This is not acceptable and it means that we need an urgent debate on the inadequacy of the devolved settlement when it comes to dealing with this matter, and on the need for greater policy and fiscal competence to be given to the Scottish Parliament.
With England in lockdown and people being told by the Government to work from home if they can, I, too, ask the Government to lead by example and now introduce procedures to allow virtual participation in debates and electronic voting. Most people will find it difficult to understand why MPs are being encouraged physically to travel across the country and gather in one place when they do not need to do so. Certainly, representing our constituents is essential, but we do not need to be here to do that. The Leader of the House knows well that the technology exists to allow Members to fulfil their duties while working remotely. If this second lockdown is not sufficient, what will it take for him to authorise switching those systems on?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: Well, it is very fortunate that we were able to hear the hon. Gentleman in full this time; the last time that he appeared, the technology did not work and we lost his dulcet tones momentarily. It is also worth reminding hon. and right hon. Members that the other place lost its remote voting system, and that hindered the progress of business. It is important that just as hospitals and schools provide essential services in health and education, so Parliament is performing its essential constitutional role of scrutinising the work of the Government, debating key issues, and, above all, making and changing legislation. Our role has been a vital one throughout this year and continues to be so throughout this month—a time when the House is holding the Government to account for their approach to tackling the widespread impact of coronavirus, legislating to shape the nation’s response to the pandemic and legislating in order for our country to be ready for the end of the transition period. Now is not the time to hinder the ability of MPs to scrutinise Ministers and legislation, but that is exactly what would happen if we were to follow the hon. Member’s suggestion for a full return to hybrid proceedings and ending elements of our business entirely. I therefore continue to say that we have our duty to do, and our duty is to be here, to hold the Government to account, and to legislate for the needs of our nation.
With regard to the hon. Member’s earlier point, I have referred him week in, week out to the many billions of pounds and the hundreds of thousands of jobs that have been protected in Scotland thanks to the United Kingdom taxpayer. It is unquestionably the case that the strength of the United Kingdom has allowed all parts of that United Kingdom to cope with the pandemic. That would have been harder to do that without that support and without that unity. It seems to me sometimes that the Scottish nationalists want devolution when it suits them, but that when there are bills to be paid, they want somebody else to pick up the bill.

Theresa Villiers: Can I ask the Leader of the House to ensure that we have adequate time to debate the consequences of this new lockdown on those people who for many months have hardly seen their relatives in residential care? This is one of the most painful aspects of the covid emergency, particularly for people whose capacity is impaired by dementia or learning disabilities. It is hugely painful for them that their relatives are not allowed to visit them. We are apparently allowed to exercise with one other individual outdoors, so is there any way in which that could be extended to enable people to see their relatives in care homes, albeit using an outdoor setting?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I have the greatest sympathy with what my right hon. Friend is saying. I have referred in this House before to a constituent of mine who wrote to me about going to see a parent with dementia and having to do so from the other side of a window, which was difficult and upsetting. For people in these circumstances, it is really tragic that the coronavirus has made it so difficult for families to be together. In terms of time for debate, there is a debate immediately after this, and I hope that my right hon Friend will be speaking in it and raising this point, because it is one of such great importance.

Vicky Foxcroft: The Government’s advice to clinically extremely vulnerable people is to stay away from their workplaces and work from home where possible. Will the Leader of the House commit to setting a good example and allow Members such as myself to participate in debates and votes remotely, as we could at the start of the first lockdown? I know that he is reluctant to do that, but as the Prime Minister has said, we must make sacrifices to save lives. This is not just about keeping MPs safe; we must also consider everyone who works on the parliamentary estate.

Jacob Rees-Mogg: The hon. Lady has the opportunity to vote by proxy, and her vote can therefore be recorded. She also has the opportunity, as she has just shown, to participate in interrogative proceedings. On debates, the whole point of a debate is that there is a back and forth, and that requires interventions. It is not possible to do that remotely, and I must therefore refer her to the answers I have already given.

Bernard Jenkin: I thank my right hon. Friend for his response to the letter I sent on behalf of the Liaison Committee concerning what might change as tighter restrictions were applied. His letter arrived before the Government’s announcement. Is there anything in it that would change as a consequence of the announcement?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: As I have referred to the letter, I think that a copy must now be put in the Library, if it has not already, in accordance with the guidance offered by “Erskine May”. The letter is, I think, an answer to my hon. Friend’s earlier letter. If he wishes to write to me again, he will get a further reply.

Chris Bryant: Can I urge the Leader of the House to provide a specific debate on dementia, for two reasons? First, we saw in the last couple of days the revelation that Sir Bobby Charlton is, sadly, now suffering from dementia. That means that half the team that started in 1966 have now been diagnosed with dementia, and several have died with it. It is about time, therefore, that the football authorities in this country and overseas took the dangers of playing football and concussion seriously, because, otherwise, we will be letting down a whole generation of footballers who need proper support. Secondly, as I understand it, there is now a nine-month waiting list in the Court of Protection, which means that, this year, many families whose relatives have been diagnosed with dementia will simply not be able to go to court to sort out their loved ones’ financial and health arrangements—they are simply waiting months and months and months to be able to get things sorted. That adds phenomenally to families’ anxiety and depression, so can we please have a debate on dementia—not as part of covid, but just on dementia?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I am extremely sympathetic to what the hon. Gentleman is saying, and I think it is an issue that is of concern to the whole House. I was unaware of the issue that he raised with respect to the Court of Protection, and I shall take that up after this session with my right hon. and learned Friend the Lord Chancellor. Government time is very pressed, as I said in response to my right hon. Friend the Member for Forest of Dean (Mr Harper), and therefore it is difficult to provide all the time for all the debates that I would like to provide time for, but the cause that he mentions is one with such widespread support that it is very much one for the Backbench Business Committee.

Mike Wood: The Leader of the House has been encouraged to lead by example during this lockdown. What example does he think it would set to those teachers and other key workers whom we are asking to go to work on the frontline if Members of Parliament decided that they could do just half their job elsewhere?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: My hon. Friend puts it absolutely brilliantly. We have to lead by example. We expect our schools to remain open, and, as I have said in this House before and I will say it again, we see in this House the cleaners working every day and the security staff working every day. We should be joining them. We should be proud to be doing the same as them and working here physically. Duty may not be a fashionable word, but it is the right word to use. It is our duty to hold the Government to account and to legislate, and to do that properly, we need to be here.

Wera Hobhouse: During the last lockdown, secure procedures were put in place for MPs to work fully remotely. That is contrary to the image that has been created that we worked only part-time and that democracy ceased, which it did not. May I ask the  Leader of the House again: should we, as rule makers, not lead by example and demonstrate through our own actions that this lockdown is different from being in tier 2 or tier 3? We all need to adapt our work practices to the new situation and put the safety of our citizens first and make sure that we recognise that covid is still a killer. We should lead by example and adapt our working practices.

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I am surprised that the hon. Lady, my constituency neighbour, should ignore so much of the work that goes on in the House outside the Chamber. During the previous lockdown, there were no statutory instrument Committees and no Committee stages of the House upstairs, so legislation could only go through if it went through on the Floor of the House. There was no Westminster Hall, which is a major means by which the Government are held to account. She says that business carried on fully remotely—it did not. We did a fraction of our job and it is our duty to be fully back at work to ensure that there is proper accountability. To think that all that ever happens is in this Chamber is, I am afraid, a misunderstanding of how Parliament works.

Sarah Dines: Does my right hon. Friend agree that we need to ensure our constitutional rights and duties as Members of Parliament to attend this House, to put to the Government any issues that our constituents need to be raised and to retain a fully functioning legislature?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: Yes, my hon. Friend is absolutely right. We have to have a fully functioning legislature. We have to be here to do that. Without being here, business simply was not getting through. We have the important date of 31 December by which time legislation to end the transition period has to be through. We have the very important coronavirus regulations to pass as well, and they need to be discussed and debated on the Floor of the House. The idea that this can be done properly in an absentee landlord way is absurd.

Nigel Evans: We have a comms issue with Debbie Abrahams that we hope to rectify before the end of the business question, so we go straight on to Marco Longhi.

Marco Longhi: Will the Leader of the House be kind enough to again reinforce the importance of this House continuing to meet in person? We should be setting an example as key workers. We are asking other key workers to go to work for us to keep this country going, so should we not set that very example by continuing to work here ourselves?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: We have the most brilliant broadcasting team who have worked like billy-o to make a hybrid system operate and to allow virtual participation, but still we find that people do not come through. So my hon. Friend is absolutely right: we need to be here physically so that we can have proper accountability, and we need to be an example to the rest of the country. There is this feeling that seems to arise on the Opposition Benches that we are a separate type from all our constituents—that we are workers who can just not do it physically and allow others to take their role in hand. No, we must be here physically; we must do it thoroughly. My hon. Friend is absolutely right.

Chi Onwurah: I have been overwhelmed with emails and contact from constituents very angry at the Government’s dither and delay and the mixed messaging and lack of support. The Leader of the House is absolutely right to say that I need to be able to represent that anger in Parliament—in the Chamber and in Westminster Hall—but I do not need to be here physically to do it. I do not need to get the train and put people at risk, and put people here at risk, in order to represent my constituents. Will he not build on the fantastic work that the House officials did in developing a virtual Parliament and let us be able to have a virtual Parliament that works for the people and keeps people safe?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: The hon. Lady does herself an injustice, because she does need to be here, as she has just shown. The passion about her representation of her constituents comes across thoroughly and robustly when she is here in person; when it is remote, at this point she is cut off and we cannot see her sighs, her gesticulations and her concern. All of that goes—it is all cut off in its prime—whereas when she is here she is able to represent her constituents forcefully, and she can do so in a safe way because the House has ensured that measures have been introduced. There is a Perspex screen over there. The Dispatch Boxes—the gift of New Zealand given to us after the war—are cleaned after every Minister or shadow Minister has stood at them, ready for the next session. We have three-minute intervals to ensure the safe exit of people and entry of the new lot. The Commons has done a phenomenal job. The authorities, Mr Speaker himself and his Deputies, the Clerks, particularly, and Marianne Cwynarski have done brilliant work to make this a covid-secure workplace. Therefore, the hon. Lady should do what she does so magnificently and hold people like me to account.

Tobias Ellwood: The Prime Minister has just spelled out the terms of the second national lockdown, and I do hope the House supports these important measures. However, we are six months into a national crisis and yet the Cabinet-led decision-making structure has not fundamentally changed, and the bandwidth of government is being severely tested, impacting on other important issues such as a fully funded, integrated review. With at least another six months to go, could I suggest a review of how this crisis is being managed and by whom, with a separation of strategy design and operational delivery, and improved command, control and communication?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for his comments. I think the question really is that we are dealing with a changing situation and changing facts, and therefore government has to be flexible in its response. He may be suggesting rather inflexible ways of managing the response to the crisis, which, of necessity, needs to have flexibility and adaptability at its heart.

Nigel Evans: Let us hope this works—by video link, Debbie Abrahams.

Debbie Abrahams: My apologies, Mr Deputy Speaker; a thunderstorm seemed to interrupt us before.
I want to express my profound disappointment in the Government’s delay in announcing a national circuit breaker, which, as we have heard, will have cost lives and livelihoods. My concern is that the Government will have learned nothing from the first wave of this pandemic and will carry on with a privatised test, trace and isolate system, which has never been fit for purpose, is a key reason why we are where we are, and will unfortunately hit our cash-starved local authorities as they will be left to pick up the pieces from this Government’s incompetence. Will the Leader of the House ensure that the Government report directly to Parliament, not through the press, on what they will be doing differently in the second lockdown, including when local authorities can expect, as promised, reimbursements for the spending that they have already had to bear during this pandemic?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: The testing capacity is now at 480,000, 9.6 million people have been tested at least once, and 30.5 million virus tests have been carried out, which is more than in any other European country. I saw my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care lurking behind the Speaker’s Chair, and I think he deserves a great deal of credit for the enormous amount of hard work he has done to get up to those 30.5 million tests. That is not to pretend there is not more to be done—there is, but what has been done so far is absolutely remarkable, from a standing start.

Kerry McCarthy: I think the expression of sheer despair from my hon. Friend the Member for Oldham East and Saddleworth (Debbie Abrahams) in response to that answer has just demonstrated that we can see people’s reactions on screen.
The Leader of the House is waxing lyrical about how important it is for us to be here and fully play our role as representatives—I am asking my third question of the day, and I am more than happy to do that—but he cannot say that on the one hand and then allow only 90 minutes for the regulations to be debated on Wednesday. Surely at least half that time will be taken up by the Front Benchers. That means that there will be very little time and very few Back Benchers will be able to speak up on behalf of their constituents. That is just not right.

Jacob Rees-Mogg: We are having a debate immediately after this session, we have had two hours from the Prime Minister, and we had a debate on the Thursday before the House rose. Therefore, a great deal of time has been made available out of the scarce resource that time is within this House for debating the coronavirus, and our Standing Orders provide for 90 minutes under an Act.

Pauline Latham: My right hon. Friend mentioned earlier the security staff, the Doorkeepers, the cleaners, everybody who keeps us safe in this place and the catering staff. He did not mention our personal staff who work in our offices. I would like to make a plea to him that he does not decide, or that it is not decided in this place, that we do not need those staff. We employ them because they do a job for us. I know we are supposed only to have two, and I do—and I only need two in this place—but I need them to work with me to prepare me and get things ready for when I am in this House. If I did not, I would have them in the constituency. I make a plea that we do not say to many young people who are our assistants  here that they have to sit in their bedsits or small flats in inappropriate seating, in inappropriate rooms—maybe only on their bed—to work from home, because I do not think that is appropriate and professional.

Jacob Rees-Mogg: My hon. Friend makes an important case for those who work for Members of Parliament. It is a matter for the House of Commons Commission, rather than for me personally, but I do know that the Commission will be urging Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority-funded staff to work from home between now and 2 December. I know that this will be difficult for some members of staff, as it has been before, but it is important to minimise the number of people on the estate to those who have an absolutely essential function here that is to do with the operation of the Chamber and the House at large.

Philippa Whitford: A significant number of MPs, like myself, have been excluded from speaking in debates on legislation for the last five months, due to being at high risk from covid or having a vulnerable family member, and I take great offence at the inference of the Leader of the House that I am somehow shirking my duty by not being willing to travel hundreds of miles each way every week. With England going into lockdown, the Prime Minister has just said that the most vulnerable should only work from home, so I, too, call on the Leader of the House to restore and maintain full virtual participation until next year to ensure that all Members can fully represent their constituents throughout the covid crisis and the end of the EU transition.

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I refer the hon. Lady to the answer I gave some moments ago.

Steve Brine: Further to the point made by my right hon. Friend the Member for Forest of Dean (Mr Harper), I think the Government will regret holding a 90-minute debate on Wednesday. I appreciate the Standing Orders, but the Government are the Government and could make changes if they wanted to.
The Leader of the House mentioned duty, and our duty is to be here. It is about being not just here in the Chamber but in the Committee Rooms and in Westminster Hall, and the conversations that are had that allow us to do our jobs and hold Ministers to account. The Prime Minister said a lot today about next-generation tests—quick turnaround, 15-minute tests. If we can do it every week for premier league football clubs, given the importance of this Parliament sitting and doing the job that the Leader of the House rightly outlines, have he and the Commission examined the idea of weekly tests for Members of this House?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: I would have enormous sympathy with those calling for more than a 90-minute debate if we had not already had so much time for debate. The overall time needs to be taken into consideration, given our challenging and full programme. I assure my hon. Friend that there will be more time to debate the issue over future weeks, and no doubt more statements by my right hon. Friends.
As regards testing, I hope it is not indiscrete of me—I look at my opposite number, the right hon. Member for Walsall South (Valerie Vaz)—to say that the Commission  did have a discussion on testing and we did have a presentation, and that it is something that is under consideration. We would, though, have to look at what other demands there were on the capacity.

Jim Shannon: I thank the Leader of the House for and fully support his statement on the forthcoming business. I understand the reasons he gave and they were very well put over. Will he confirm that debates in Westminster Hall—including the one scheduled for Tuesday 10 November that I have secured to highlight obesity and the covid outbreak and the need for urgent intervention—will go ahead? Will there be an opportunity on Wednesday to ask questions on the statutory instruments on blood safety, human tissue and the quality and safety of organs intended for transplantation?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: There will be three hours available for the grouped debates on SIs, and Westminster Hall debates will continue. One of the really important reasons why we are continuing to meet in the way that we are is to ensure that the other activities that are so important in holding the Government to account and representing our constituents do continue.

Ben Bradley: Over the weekend, I mulled over the question of a second lockdown and considered the seemingly binary choice between lives and livelihoods. In that scenario, I feel compelled to support lives, but of course it is not that simple, is it? In his statement earlier, the Prime Minister mentioned that all the information available to him either is or will be available to us. In order to make a proper decision, surely we need to know what other options have been considered, because in truth it is not a binary choice. We need to know why those options were written off; the projections of the economic and health impacts of lockdown; and why we have chosen the course that we have chosen. That is really important so that we can make a proper decision on Wednesday, so will my right hon. Friend do everything he can to make as much of that information available to us as possible?

Jacob Rees-Mogg: My hon. Friend said that he listened to my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister. I think that is the greatest reassurance that any of us on the Conservative Benches can have. There has not been a more freedom-loving Prime Minister of this nation in decades, if not in over a century. The most freedom-loving Prime Minister we could think of having has come to this very difficult decision. Against the Opposition’s siren calls to close us down ages ago, he did it when he was convinced that that was what had to happen. He did not want to take away our liberties and our freedoms, and he did so after proper deliberation and consultation and, as he said in his statement, with a heavy heart. That should give my freedom-loving friends on the Government side of the House and across the House the confidence that the Prime Minister has made the right decision on the best information, which I am sure will be published according to the schedule that he will set out.

Nigel Evans: I thank the Leader of the House for his statement.

Points of Order

6.24 pm

Liam Fox: On a point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Earlier today during the Prime Minister’s statement, I made the point that across health, the economy and social wellbeing, covid has a massive impact. It is not limited to the national health service. Members of Parliament of all parties will have had letters from constituents who believe that the costs of lockdown across those areas are so great that the cure is, in effect, more dangerous than the disease. I do not believe that to be the case, but I do believe that we in the House of Commons have a duty to reassure our constituents about the full disclosure of information that can be made available to use.
That is why I suggested that, along the lines of the Intelligence and Security Committee model that we already have in Parliament, we set up a covid Committee that can look across all the different Departments and cross-reference what happens on the economy with what happens on health and with other areas. As you will know, Mr Deputy Speaker, the Prime Minister said that that was a matter for the House, not for the Government. I understand that New Zealand has already introduced such a system. Can you advise us on the next steps for the House if we wanted to take forward such a model so that we could reassure our constituents, hand on heart, that we had seen and examined all the information that was available, and could command disclosure of any data that we needed to make that case clear?

Nigel Evans: I thank the right hon. Gentleman for notice of his point of order. I heard the question that he posed to the Prime Minister and the response that he was given. The creation of a new Committee would require the House to pass a resolution determining the membership, terms of reference and so forth. Motions that would have a direct consequence of additional expenditure under the House of Commons administration estimate of £50,000 or more would require the Clerk of the House to produce a memorandum setting out the expected financial consequence. I hope that is helpful. If the right hon. Gentleman wishes  further guidance on that, he should seek it directly from the Clerk of the House, Dr John Benger.

David Davis: Further to that point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. Thank you very much for that explanation. I am entirely with my right hon. Friend the Member for North Somerset (Dr Fox) in his request to the House. These are unique circumstances and this is a time when the House is finding it difficult to do its job properly. I would like to give notice that we wish to press the matter further.

Mark Harper: Further to that point of order, Mr Deputy Speaker. May I give the House a specific reason why I think the suggestion of my right hon. Friend the Member for North Somerset (Dr Fox) is valid? I questioned the Leader of the House about publishing information. In answer to a question from the right hon. Member for North Durham (Mr Jones), the Prime Minister said that all scientific information pertinent to the decisions that the House is being asked to make would be published. Later, in answer to my hon. Friend the Member for Isle of Wight (Bob Seely), the Prime Minister said something slightly different: that he would seek to publish all the information that he had seen in making his decision. Those two things are not quite the same. The sort of Committee that my right hon. Friend the Member for North Somerset described would enable the House, rather than the Government, to be in control of the process. I commend the suggestion for that reason.

Nigel Evans: I thank David Davis and Mark Harper for their points of order further to that of Dr Liam Fox. I have nothing more to add to the guidance that I initially gave, but I am grateful to the Leader of the House for staying to listen to the three points of order. As I said, I hope the right hon. Members will now seek further guidance from the Clerk of the House, Dr John Benger.
We will now suspend the sitting for a few minutes for sanitation of both Dispatch Boxes and the safe exit and arrival of Members of Parliament.
6.28 pm
Sitting suspended.
Virtual participation in proceedings concluded (Order, 4 June).

Covid-19

Matthew Hancock: I beg to move,
That this House has considered covid-19.
This global pandemic calls on us all to make the best judgments that we can on behalf of our nation. This disease attacks us all because we are human, and it is only by coming together as humanity that we can solve it. It is a communitarian disease that passes from person to person among those who are closest to each other, and it is as a community that we must tackle it. The virus raises profound questions for each Member of this House, too, representing our constituencies as we do, to make the best judgments that we can in the face of uncertainty, immense challenge and with great weights on each side of the scales, in the best interests of the nation that we serve.
We have heard today from the Prime Minister of the grave steps on which the House will vote on Wednesday. We know of the real impact that those steps will have on so many lives and livelihoods. We know the hardships that would be faced and the jobs lost, and we cannot save them all, but the alternative of not acting would be so much worse.
When faced with such a deadly adversary, we cannot stand aside and let it spread unchecked through our communities when we know the devastation it would cause, not just to the NHS and not only in the mounting death toll, but I firmly believe the impact on our economy would be worse too. The devastation that the virus would wreak if unchecked would impact the NHS’s ability to treat covid and non-covid patients. For all those who need treatment in the NHS right now, the action we propose will help to ensure that the NHS has what it needs to give them the world-class care that we have all come to expect.

Ian Paisley Jnr: I applaud the congratulations that the Secretary of State has already extended to NHS workers. What message does he have for my constituent, Faye McDonnell, a student nurse? Will she be paid during this crisis? Will my other constituent, Kirsten Doran, a theatre nurse, be paid the increase in pay and fair pay that nurses are campaigning for?

Matthew Hancock: Of course the NHS in Northern Ireland is the responsibility of the Administration there. I know of the issues around nurses’ pay, which has been the subject of much interest. I will not go into the individual details, but I recognise the case that the hon. Gentleman rightly makes on behalf of his constituents. We in this House support the staff of the NHS across the UK—in all four nations in all four parts of the NHS.
Across the UK, however, the case is the same. For people who need NHS treatment now, whether it is for covid or any other condition, the best course of action is to suppress the virus. Partly because of that, I therefore believe that the only strategy a responsible Government can take is to suppress the virus and support the economy, education and the NHS as much as possible until science can come to our rescue.

Jonathan Edwards: We are undoubtedly in a serious situation, and I am sure that the Secretary of State agrees that we need to take political gamesmanship out of the debate. Considering the measures and the month-long lockdown that have been announced for England, does he share my concern at the actions of some of his colleagues in Wales who have worked the whole situation up into a political frenzy with regard to the ongoing lockdown in my country?

Matthew Hancock: The hon. Gentleman invites me to get involved in political controversy in Wales while rejecting the principle of getting involved in political controversy. Having thought about it, on balance, I am going to sidestep that particular political controversy. As it happens, I strongly think that the public expect us to work together in the national interest, and that is what we propose to do.
A crucial part of that national interest is protecting the most vulnerable. When coronavirus spreads rapidly, it reaches all parts. Many of the most vulnerable can live only with care and support from those outside their home, or live in multigenerational households. We must protect the most vulnerable from the disease, and we will, with renewed shielding advice and support for care homes, but we cannot rely on that alone.
There is no quick fix to this pandemic; there is no silver bullet. What makes this fight so tough is that the virus thrives on all the things that make life worth living, such as the joy of social contact and the communal events that give us so much happiness and fulfilment, but we must persevere together to get it under control.

Mark Harper: One of the key things that we will depend on after the lockdown is over—assuming that the House gives its support—is a really effective contact tracing system. The Secretary of State knows as well as I do that, in the last couple of weeks, the system has been reaching only 48% of the contacts of those who have tested positive. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies says that for the system to be effective, it needs to reach 80%. In the 28 days of lockdown, what specific steps will he take to get it to 80%?

Matthew Hancock: My right hon Friend is right; I was going to come on to that issue. Of course the contact tracing system needs to contact as many people as it can. The figures that he refers to include a huge array of different types of contact. I will update the House on the improvements that we have seen in contact tracing, including an increase in the absolute number of people who have been contacted and in the proportion.
We absolutely need the proportion to go up. A critical part of that is people’s engagement with the contact tracing system, as well as the system itself. Some of the proportion who are not reached are not reached because their contact details are not given. It is quite hard to blame the people who work in NHS Test and Trace, who are working so hard on it, for that particular reason. It is important to go into the details of why a particular contact is not made and try to improve all those details. That work is ongoing, but I accept the challenge.

Munira Wilson: As well as boosting contact tracing rates, which are absolutely critical, I hope the Secretary of State will address the issues with the app that have been revealed this weekend; it has not  been contacting people who should have been contacted. Self-isolation is also important. The Prime Minister admitted today—he finally acknowledged—that self-isolation rates are far too low, but we have heard nothing about what steps are to be put in place. We need carrots, not sticks—support and incentives for people to self-isolate. The Secretary of State mentioned multigenerational households; there are many overcrowded households, particularly in inner cities, and therefore high-risk people who cannot self-isolate at home. Has he given any consideration to setting up self-isolation support facilities that those people can go to?

Matthew Hancock: Of course, self-isolation following contact or following a positive test, or in quarantine from abroad, is absolutely critical, and we have brought in measures to improve self-isolation, such as the £500 payment and strengthening the enforcement around it, and we are always looking for what we can do to strengthen self-isolation; the Prime Minister was absolutely right in what he said earlier, and there is a huge amount of work under way on it.

Rachael Maskell: Two weeks ago, I asked the Health Secretary about the button that was meant to be on the app to release a reference code for people to claim the £500. The Health Secretary specifically came to the Dispatch Box to say that they just needed to press that button. That button does not exist—it did not exist then and it still does not exist today—so why did he make that intervention and how is he going to rectify the situation so people can claim that £500?

Matthew Hancock: Yes, the button is coming; it is in development. The hon. Member for Twickenham (Munira Wilson), who made the previous intervention, also spoke about the app. There was an upgrade to the app towards the end of last week, and I want to put on record my thanks to the app team, who have done such a great job in improving the app by, as the hon. Member for Twickenham said, improving the targeting so that more people are targeted and more people get the message. The app is also now getting fewer false positives so people can have more confidence that if they are contacted by the app and told to isolate, they need to do so. The button will come.

Rushanara Ali: People up and down the country made enormous sacrifices during the first lockdown, and they were promised a world-beating contact, test and trace system. Some £12 billion has been spent on Serco to provide that. In areas such as mine with high levels of deprivation, health inequalities and high numbers of vulnerable people, people are already dying, and we do not have an effective testing and tracing system. So, given where we are, may I appeal to the Secretary of State to make resources available to areas where we have the local capacity to do testing and tracing, to help improve the system as quickly as possible in this lockdown?

Matthew Hancock: Yes, as we have discussed many times, that is happening—absolutely—and it is the link between the national and the local that is the solution here. I will come on to testing in more detail later because I have  some new things to say about it. In the meantime, the other thing we need to do, of course, is make sure that for this second peak—the second wave—we do all we can to support those institutions that are helping us through it, and first among those is, of course, the NHS.
The NHS is better prepared for this second wave, and I want to thank the NHS and everybody who works in it for their efforts over the past few months to ensure that we are better prepared. We know infinitely more things about coronavirus now than we knew as the first wave hit. Our Nightingale hospitals, for instance, stand ready and are being restarted in the parts of the country that need them. The independent sector has stepped up to the mark to help us work through the backlog of the vital elective operations and to help keep going with elective operations, even through this second peak. We have hired more staff, with 13,700 more nurses and 7,800 more doctors. We have provided £3 billion of extra funding across health and social care. Personal protective equipment is widely and freely available, and infection control procedures have been significantly strengthened, based on better understanding of transmission of the virus, including aerosol as well as droplet and fomite transmission.

Luke Evans: I am glad to hear that preparations are under way. I have had several emails from constituents in Bosworth who are worried about their routine operations; their follow-up might be lost. They remember what happened in the last lockdown, when they were not able to get that follow-up. Can my right hon. Friend confirm that all NHS appointments will be going ahead as best they can?

Matthew Hancock: Yes, absolutely, and my hon. Friend makes a critical point. If in Bosworth someone is waiting for an operation on the NHS, they are more likely to get it if we keep the virus suppressed—in fact, if we keep it down, they will get that operation and we will get it done. Unfortunately, in the parts of the country where things have got too high, non-urgent, non-cancer elective operations have had to be cancelled. That demonstrates that, both for covid and non-covid health reasons, it is better to keep the virus suppressed.
I was halfway through my long list of the things that the NHS has been doing to prepare over the summer. At the moment, we are delivering 159 A&E upgrades; as far as I know, that is the biggest number of concurrent upgrades to emergency care in the NHS’s history. We have radically expanded telemedicine in primary and outpatient care. We are introducing 111 First, with an expanded 111 service to help people get the care that they need.
The NHS has learned how to treat covid patients better too, of course: not just by discovering treatments such as dexamethasone, in which the NHS played a critical part, but by improving clinical techniques—earlier oxygenation and later ventilation, for instance. As a result, our rate of hospital-acquired infection is down and the number of people who survive covid in hospital is up. We have been able to set an explicit goal that all cancer treatment should continue throughout this second wave, which speaks precisely to the point that my hon. Friend the Member for Bosworth (Dr Evans) made.
But even with this expanded NHS and with the better treatments, the extra investment and the brilliance of the whole NHS team, who have done and learned so  much about the virus and worked so hard to prepare—even with all that—and even if the NHS were twice as big as it is now, it could not cope, and no health service could, if the virus continued to grow as it is now. We must control the virus, to protect the NHS and ensure that it is always there, to treat patients with covid and patients with all other conditions.

Steven Baker: One of the wonderful things that my right hon. Friend has done is make available so much data. I am looking at the case data for Liverpool, and there it is—daily cases by specimen date. Thank goodness the number is now falling, and on a seven-day basis, again, it is falling. I am just wondering why now anyone in Liverpool would say anything other than that the Government’s previous strategy is now working. Why on earth, then, would people in other areas that are not even as badly off as Liverpool—or indeed Manchester, where the cases seem to be stabilising—want to see an even tighter lockdown?

Matthew Hancock: Unfortunately, in Liverpool the overall case rate includes a very high peak among students. The over-60s case rate, which is also published on the same website, shows a flattening, but a flattening at a very high level, such that Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has already had to cancel non-urgent, non-cancer elective activity.
The danger of a plateauing at a high level, as the chief medical officer set out, is that if the rate starts to go up again, we are already under significant pressure in the NHS in Liverpool. The same argument goes for Tyneside, where again the overall case rate appears to be coming down, which is good news. The number among the over-60s, however, is flattening, again at a very high level, and in other parts of the country, including areas in tier 3, the numbers were going up.
It is not good enough just to control R and keep it lower than its natural rate; we have to get it below 1 to be able to change from a doubling time to a halving time of this virus. Even I—the most enthusiastic supporter of the tier system—can see that, unfortunately, cases were rising and the cases among the over-60s are rising, including in the areas with tier 3 restrictions. It is important to strip out from those data the outbreak among students. I have talked before about there being two overlapping epidemics: one among students and one among the wider community.

William Wragg: My right hon. Friend lists the many commendable achievements of the national health service in the period since the first wave, but the main contention is that this policy is for ICU capacity issues. What specifically has been done over the summer to increase that capacity?

Matthew Hancock: There has been a significant capacity increase in critical care, which includes ICU but is not only ICU. We have a wider definition of critical care, which is important. Many people with covid do not need formal ICU intubation; they need critical care, including oxygenation, when they are not anaesthetised but on oxygen treatment. On that measure of critical care, which is the care required for covid, there has been a significant increase, including significant investment in the NHS around the country. I should have had that on my list.

Aaron Bell: Further to my right hon. Friend’s answers to my hon. Friend the Member for Wycombe (Mr Baker), it has been a fact for a long time that the three figures that are reported most often are the number of tests, the number of cases and, regrettably, the number of deaths. Does my right hon. Friend agree that the media and we should focus much more on the data on NHS capacity? That, rather than tests and cases, should be the message.

Matthew Hancock: They are all important. Often, people focus on the cases, because they are one of the earliest indicators of the direction. The case rate among the over-60s is highly correlated with what happens to hospital admissions a week or 10 days later. That is why we focus on the over-60s case rate and now publish that data too, because looking at that as well as the overall case rate is important.
Nevertheless, my hon. Friend is absolutely right that although the translation of cases into hospitalisations and poor health outcomes is harder to estimate, the number of hospital admissions with covid is a concrete fact that we cannot get away from. We cannot escape the fact that that is rising and has been rising sharply. Even if we expanded the NHS enormously—we have, both in critical care and in terms of the potential capacity in the Nightingales, should it be needed, but even if we doubled the size of the NHS—once we are on an exponential growth curve, it would still be too small to cope if the virus were to run riot.

Jonathan Edwards: Returning to ICUs, the Secretary of State knows that nurses working in that environment are highly specialised; it takes a high degree of extra training. How confident is he, considering the potential for fatigue and for nurses to fall ill, given that this may last many months, that the line will hold against covid in ICUs?

Matthew Hancock: With this action, I am confident that we can make that happen, but it is one of the reasons and justifications for this action that we are taking. The action is serious, and I do not deny or demur from the consequences that the action will bring. My argument is not that this action is good or anything other than regrettable; it is that the action is necessary because the alternative is worse.
I would like to address the specific point made about mental health. It is good to be here next to my hon. Friend the Mental Health Minister. There were a number of questions about mental health addressed to the Prime Minister earlier. Restrictions such as these do have implications for people’s mental health—of course they do—and we are expanding mental health support to address that. However, we also know that coronavirus itself, and the impact of high levels of covid on the NHS, has a significant impact on mental health too. The Royal College of Psychiatrists has said:
“Stricter measures to control the virus are needed to minimise Covid-related mental illness as much as possible.”
Today it said:
“The new lockdown will significantly impact mental health but allowing COVID to go unchecked would also have serious consequences for mental illness. We must ensure that people get the support they need.”
So yes, I am worried about mental health, but in my book that is another reason to bring this virus under control.
Turning to physical health, in the worst-hit areas we have already seen the cancellation of some non-urgent, non-cancer treatments, such as hip operations and cataracts. Without action to bring R below 1, the NHS would be overwhelmed, no matter what we did to expand the NHS and protect the vulnerable, and then we could no longer guarantee that solemn promise to every citizen that our NHS will be there for you when you need it. We must not let that happen.
I want to say this very directly to all those who need NHS services this winter: help us to help you. If you are asked to go to hospital, that is because it is the best place for you. I want to say this to all the staff working in the NHS: we will support you this winter. We are grateful for the sacrifices you are making and we will get through this together.
As we have learned more about this virus, we have been able to strengthen social care, too, and our winter plan sets out the work done to improve those protections, including free PPE, regular testing and the systems for safe discharge that will be so important over the coming months.
Finally, to escape the clutches of the pandemic, we must harness ingenuity and scientific prowess to make the breakthroughs that will help us turn the corner. Testing technologies are improving all the time. We are expanding our existing technologies, and since the pandemic hit we have been putting everything behind our mission to expand our testing capacity. In April, on schedule, we delivered the target of 100,000 tests a day. The Prime Minister then set the goal of testing capacity of half a million a day by the end of October, and I can tell the House that thanks to an enormous effort under the leadership of Baroness Harding and Sarah-Jane Marsh, to whom I give heartfelt thanks, we have hit our target. Testing capacity across the whole UK is now 519,770 a day—a phenomenal national achievement. We now have the largest testing capacity in Europe.
It has been a hard road. As with any new technology, there have been ups and downs, but I always knew we would get there. I am very proud of the team. The next stage is to harness the new technologies—the lateral flow tests that can take a matter of minutes, the high-throughput tests and the point-of-care tests, which are now bringing capacity into the hotspots and on the spot in our NHS hospitals. That is all part of a mass testing capacity that we are building right now, which, alongside the work on vaccines—that is progressing well—will give us so much greater protection from this disease in the months to come.

Jon Ashworth: Before the Secretary of State moves on, just on the point about vaccines, it was reported yesterday in The Sunday Times that Kate Bingham, the chair of the taskforce, spoke at a commercial conference where attendees paid $200 to attend and revealed commercially confidential information. Certainly at the least she apparently revealed information about a vaccine being ready by Easter, which is welcome, and that the Government have done a rehearsal to get the vaccine distributed—again, that is  welcome—but why has she revealed that information there? Why has the Secretary of State not revealed that information here? Members may want to take some of those things into account before they vote on Wednesday. Did he authorise her speaking at this event, and can he update us on what she said?

Matthew Hancock: The covid vaccine taskforce is about the procurement of the vaccines. That is a matter for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. The Department has put out a statement and made clear the circumstances around that conference. What I would say is that I am very happy to answer any questions on vaccines. As the hon. Member says, we have procured a number of vaccines. We have procured six in total, two of which are the two leading vaccines in the world. The taskforce has done an excellent job of making sure that we have one of the strongest procurement pipelines for vaccines in the world.

Stephen Doughty: While we are still on the subject of vaccines and the Secretary of State is answering questions, the biography of Kate Bingham on her own website on SV Health Investors says that she is in fact leaving the taskforce at the end of 2020. Who is replacing her and what confidentiality agreements will she be asked to sign on her return to an entirely profit-making business?

Matthew Hancock: It was a fixed-term appointment in order to do that vital work, and was always due to come to a close. This comes back to the old thing that we have across these Dispatch Boxes: on the Government side of the House, we want to harness the capabilities of everybody; on the Opposition side of the House, unless a person is in the public sector, they do not seem to get the credit. I think we should welcome everybody who is willing to put their shoulder to the wheel to drive the action that is necessary to improve this country’s response.

Rushanara Ali: rose—

Matthew Hancock: This is probably about how we should not use the private sector in test and trace, despite the fact that we have hit our target of more than 500,000 tests a day on time, as we have each of the targets for testing. I am very proud of that.

Several hon. Members: rose—

Matthew Hancock: I am happy to answer any detailed question about the provision of vaccines in this country.

Daisy Cooper: Does the Secretary of State accept that there are those of us in this House who like a mixed economy and who recognise the role of the private sector and of business, but that that does not undermine the need for any Government to have transparency about procurement and to protect the spending of taxpayers’ money?

Matthew Hancock: Yes, absolutely. With comments like those, the hon. Lady should come over to this side of the House if she wants to be part of the big team effort. She obviously did not get the memo that says, “If you sit on the Opposition side, you have to attack anybody in the private sector who is helping.”
We have to pull together, because coronavirus is a powerful adversary. It has the power to overwhelm our hospitals, disrupt our economy and suspend the moments  that make life so special, so we must take the hard but crucial steps to get it under control, and we will stand behind every single person who joins in this national effort. Everybody has a role to play, and as we come together once more, we must all work and make sacrifices to protect those who we love at this time of national need.

Several hon. Members: rose—

Rosie Winterton: As I am sure colleagues can see, a large number of people wish to participate in this debate. We did not manage to get everybody in the last general debate, so I am imposing a time limit for Back Benchers that will start at five minutes.

Jon Ashworth: I appreciate that there are Members who applied for the previous debate and could not get in, so if Members will forgive me, I will take very few interventions. It would be a shame if Members could not get into this debate, as happened last time.
On 21 September, SAGE advised the Prime Minister to adopt a time-limited circuit breaker, and warned that
“not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences”.
On 13 October, when we debated the tiered approach, I warned that
“the embers are burning brightly”
nationwide, and that
“further action is going to be needed.”—[Official Report, 13 October 2020; Vol. 682, c. 205.]
Later that day, the Leader of the Opposition proposed to work with the Prime Minister in the national interest and help to introduce a time-limited, two-week circuit break across the school half term.
What was Downing Street’s response to our offer to work together? Downing Street branded us opportunistic. The Chancellor criticised us, describing the proposal as
“a damaging, blunt, national lockdown”
that would cause
“unnecessary pain and suffering”.—[Official Report, 22 October 2020; Vol. 682, c. 1252.].
Even though this morning he defended the decision to go into lockdown, there are now briefings—I am sure the whole House will be shocked by this—that the Chancellor does not really support this lockdown after all. I have been around for a long time, and I know that when a Chancellor tells a Prime Minister that he supports him, while simultaneously letting Tory Back Benchers think that he backs them, that is definitely a man on manoeuvres.
Then we have the Foreign Secretary, who said that
“the idea of a short, sharp circuit breaker is, frankly, something of an enigma. No one can say, if you go into a national lockdown at what point you get out of it.”
Well, quite.
That brings me to the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office—a man renowned for his long-standing loyalty to the right hon. Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson)—who, in recent days, performed a pirouette with great panache. Two weeks ago on “Sophie Ridge on Sunday”, when asked whether a circuit break could  be introduced, he gave an emphatic “No!” But yesterday, when asked on “Sophie Ridge on Sunday” whether the Prime Minister’s lockdown could extend beyond four weeks, he said yes. No wonder the Foreign Secretary is confused with that level of consistency from his Cabinet colleagues.
Then, of course, we have the Prime Minister. Two weeks ago, he said a lockdown would be the “height of absurdity” and he said that a lockdown would “turn the lights out”, yet here we are on the eve of a longer, deeper and more restrictive lockdown than we proposed. Fundamentally, this is about the Prime Minister’s judgment. Since SAGE advised a lockdown in September, over 4,000 lives have been lost. Infections have increased from 4,000 a day to over 20,000 a day. The numbers in critical care on ventilation have increased from 154 to 815. Deaths have been doubling roughly every two weeks since the beginning of September.
Thousands more, sadly, are likely to die over the next fortnight. Tragically, this lockdown is too late for them. Andrew Hayward from SAGE said earlier today on the radio that
“if we had chosen a two-week circuit break…we would definitely have saved thousands of lives and we would clearly have inflicted substantially less damage on our economy than the proposed four-week lockdown will do.”
On Wednesday, Labour Members will, in the national interest, vote in support of the necessary measures, but the House should be clear that this lockdown will be longer and more damaging because the warnings from SAGE in September and then from the Opposition in October were dismissed by the Prime Minister. There is a sorry pattern to this Prime Minister’s handling of the crisis.

Mike Wood: The shadow Health Secretary risks inadvertently misleading the House in suggesting that SAGE was recommending a two-week circuit-breaking lockdown. As he knows, it has strongly suggested that what it was talking about was a series of lockdowns. Is that still Labour’s position?

Jon Ashworth: I am sure the hon. Gentleman is familiar with the minutes from SAGE, which read:
“The shortlist of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that should be considered for immediate introduction includes:...A circuit-breaker (short period of lockdown) to return incidence to low levels.”
That is the proposal that we endorsed, and it is the proposal that was rejected on 21 September by the Prime Minister. Now the Prime Minister is putting the country into a four-week lockdown, which the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster conceded yesterday could last beyond four weeks. This is fundamentally about the judgment of the Prime Minister, and indeed the Chancellor, who, we know from briefings, blocked the Government from making the choice to go for lockdown earlier.
Throughout this crisis, we have seen mistake after mistake. The preparations for this pandemic were poor and insufficient. The lessons of Exercise Cygnus were not taken on board. The country’s stockpile of PPE was allowed to dwindle, leaving frontline health and care workers unprotected and placed in harm’s way. I hope we can get a cast-iron guarantee that the same will not happen again this winter. Instead of putting the public  health teams in charge of tracing, Ministers turned to outsourcing companies, with management consultants paid more in one day than care workers would be paid over four months. Week by week, the numbers followed up by the test and trace system fall. Directors of public health, who want to get on with contact tracing, complain that it takes days for them to receive the information on cases.
The app was months too late, and yesterday we learned that it has an not even been alerting people properly. The Secretary of State is supposed to be the digital whizz kid, and he could not deliver the app on time, and it has not been working sufficiently. Far too many test results are still not turned around in 24 hours, even though we know that we need speed when dealing with a virus that spreads with such severity. There have been 1,300 outbreaks in care homes since the end of August, and care staff still wait more than two days for results.
As we have heard, there is still inadequate financial support for people who need to isolate. It should be no surprise that there were reports of less than 20% of people isolating, given that they are expected to make a choice between feeding their families and their health. Rather than giving people proper, decent sick pay, the Chancellor spent hundreds of millions subsidising meals in restaurants through the summer. There is now evidence from academics to suggest that that led to the spread of the virus and seeded the virus in the early stages of this second wave. We welcome the announcement of the 80% furlough, but furloughed workers in the midlands and the north will conclude that their jobs were worth 13% less than those elsewhere.
The experiences of other countries were needlessly ignored, warnings were downplayed, and the precious advantage of time was squandered. Tragically, that has been as true in September and October as it was in February and March. The Government did not learn. It does not require a crystal ball to listen to scientists and make timely decisions in the national interest, so lessons must be learned, and this lockdown must be used wisely.
I welcome what the Secretary of State said about expanding testing capacity, but we also need to turn around the PCR—polymerase chain reaction—tests quickly for those with symptoms. They are still not turned around in 24 hours. If we are going to have extra capacity in the system, I hope there will be a commitment to turn those tests around in 24 hours for those who need them. We need to expand access to testing to more people, to rebuild confidence across society. UK universities are leading the way in piloting regular saliva testing for students, and some have extended that to the wider community. Rolling out these saliva tests across communities paves the way for weekly testing of key workers such as transport staff, care staff and, especially, NHS staff.
We have been calling for months for the Government to roll out a programme of regular, routine testing of frontline NHS staff. Surely, as we move into winter, that should be a priority. The saliva testing innovation should be brought on stream quickly to do that routine testing of all frontline NHS staff. If we could roll that out—I know that the Secretary of State agrees with me on this, and I do not disagree with him on the objective; I am urging him to use these four weeks to get a move on with it—it would allow us to identify asymptomatic  carriers and protect the most vulnerable in society. Will he come forward with a plan to work with our universities on saliva testing, which he knows is very exciting and could make a huge difference?
Contact tracing has to be fixed. It has not been working properly through the call centre approach. The local directors of public health would do a more effective job, but they need to get the contacts within 24 hours, not within days. If they get those contacts within 24 hours, they can introduce as a matter of routine retrospective contact tracing, which finds where people got the virus from and identifies super-spreading cluster events. That approach has been taken in countries such as Japan, and we know that it is more effective. I know that it is happening in some hotspots, but it should be routine across the country.
As I said, we need reassurance that people will get support for isolation. In this lockdown, we will have a spending review, and the test of that spending review is how it will support our national health service and social care sector for the rest of this covid period. We entered this crisis after years of underfunding in the national health service, with capital budgets repeatedly raided—[Interruption.] There were years of underfunding in the national health service—of course there were. The national health service used to get a funding increase of around 4% to 5%. It got something like 6% to 7% a year under Labour Governments. Under this Government, for 10 years, it has got around 1%. Everybody knows that the NHS went into this crisis after years of underfunding. Everybody knows that the NHS went into this crisis with capital budgets having been repeatedly raided, which has left hospitals with a £6 billion repair bill. The NHS entered this crisis with around 15,000 beds having been cut since 2010.

Matthew Hancock: We cannot let this stand—what a load of nonsense. The NHS went into this crisis with the highest funding level in its history, with more doctors than at any time in its history, with more nurses than at any time in its history and with the biggest hospital building programme in its history. The investment from this Government in this NHS is the highest that has ever been made by any British Government in history, and that is why it is only we who are the party of the NHS.

Jon Ashworth: The national health service has been systematically underfunded for years under this Tory Government. The NHS went into this crisis without adequate levels of PPE for frontline staff, with nurses using curtains and plastic bags to protect themselves on the wards in the face of this horrific virus. [Interruption.] They are sighing, but they sent our staff into the face of danger without the proper protection; that is what happened going into this crisis, because of years of cutbacks and underfunding of the national health service. The cutbacks and underfunding mean that we have lost 15,000 beds in the national health service since 2010, and that our public health budgets have been cut by £800 million under this Tory Government and because of years of austerity for the NHS. There are people with serious mental health problems who will be spending this lockdown in Victorian-style mental health dormitory wards because of the cutbacks in the capital funding for the NHS.

Matthew Hancock: Come on!

Jon Ashworth: That is absolutely true.

Matthew Hancock: The hon. Gentleman mentions dormitories in mental health services. Dormitories have plagued mental health services for years and years and years—and who are the first Government to not only commit, but to put the funding in to end dormitories in mental health services? It is this Conservative Government. It is not only that this Government are the Government for the NHS and that we are the party of the NHS; we are also the party investing record sums in mental health services, with the biggest increase of all the increases in funding going into mental health services, including to end the dormitories in mental health services that have existed ever since the NHS was created.

Jon Ashworth: The Government have been cutting capital budgets in the NHS, which is why we have still got those horrendous dormitory wards, including at Leicestershire Partnership NHS Trust and Derbyshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust. Years of Tory cutbacks have meant that clinical commissioning groups have been raiding child and adolescent mental health budgets in order to fix the wider revenue gaps in the NHS. That is because of 10 years of underfunding in the national health service. We went into this crisis with an NHS that did not have enough staff—short of 80,000. It has seen 15,000 beds cut and public health budgets cut by £800 million. Hospitals have been left with £6 billion of repair bills and with these Victorian dormitory wards that have not been updated for years. The Secretary of State cannot stand there and say that the NHS had enough investment going into this crisis, because if it had we would not have had staff without PPE.

Stephen Doughty: Perhaps my hon. Friend will take a look at the situation in Wales. Thanks to investment from the Welsh Government, I have a brand-new mental health facility at Llandough Hospital in Cardiff South and Penarth, with state-of-the-art facilities to deal with mental health issues in Wales.

Jon Ashworth: Wales also has a much better test, trace and protect system because the Welsh Government did not outsource it to Serco. Of course, the Welsh First Minister showed some leadership and actually imposed his short firebreaker, when the Secretary of State’s leader was running away from the difficult decisions that were needed and was not following the advice of the scientists.
The spending review is due towards the end of November. The test will be whether the NHS and the social care system are given the funding they need. One matter that the Secretary of State did not go into in great detail—perhaps the Minister for Patient Safety, Mental Health and Suicide Prevention, the hon. Member for Mid Bedfordshire (Ms Dorries), could respond when she sums up—is what protection will be in place for the social care sector. We understand why we need to have a lockdown, but we know that a lockdown is going to be particularly devastating for those in receipt of social care. Many people have made great sacrifices, not being able to see their loved ones in social care throughout this period. There is a great worry that many loved ones are literally fading away in social care, not able to see their daughters, granddaughters, sons and grandsons.
We really need a system in place so that loved ones can see their families in social care. Some of the testing innovations that the Secretary of State has spoken of, which we welcome, should be used so that relatives can  see their loved ones in social care regularly. He did not mention that today, but this is going to be a real issue in the coming weeks. I hope that the Minister of State can reassure the House that there will be a sufficient plan in place for those in receipt of social care to be fully protected throughout the four-week lockdown and the winter more generally.

Rushanara Ali: Does my hon. Friend agree that not only do those in care need additional protection, but the black and minority ethnic death rates in the first lockdown were unprecedented? The Government published the disparities report, yet they do not have an action plan as we go into a second wave. We can see the numbers already; BAME deaths have already happened in my constituency in this wave. What are the Government going to do to protect those from BAME backgrounds who are particularly at risk?

Jon Ashworth: This is a really important point, which my hon. Friend has raised many times in the House. We know that covid particularly thrives on inequalities in society and is particularly brutal with respect to socioeconomic inequities. We have seen the disproportionate impact on those from BAME backgrounds, particularly those who live in constituencies such as hers and mine, in overcrowded housing or in low-paid, public-facing roles. The Public Health England report and other reports published in recent weeks by think tanks all make welcome and sensible recommendations about targeted testing and particular protections in the workplace. Those need to be implemented because we know that this virus is particularly cruel when it comes to inequalities. That is why I have always made the broader point that getting through this virus in the end not only relies on mass testing—we agree on that—and the wider distribution of a vaccine, but fundamentally relies on a wider health inequalities strategy. We went into this crisis with inequalities getting wider, life expectancy going backwards and child mortality rates worsening. That is the result of 10 years of austerity, as Sir Michael Marmot says. If we want to get on top of this virus, which is now endemic, we are going to need a fully resourced and wider health inequalities strategy.

Jonathan Edwards: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Jon Ashworth: I will, but this will be the last time, because I want to finish.

Jonathan Edwards: I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman. I invite him to agree that the Treasury needs to up its game on its co-ordination with the devolved Administrations because, when Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland wanted to go into lockdown there was no extension to the furlough, yet there is when the policy comes to England. The Treasury needs to be working with the devolved Administrations so that they can pursue their chosen public health policy.

Jon Ashworth: The hon. Gentleman makes a completely valid point, although it is not just about the devolved Administrations; the Chancellor should work more closely with the various civic leaderships across the country. When it was the north being locked down, they simply did not get the economic support for the jobs and livelihoods in their areas. If the Government  are moving to a tiered system post this lockdown, whenever it ends, I hope that they will not make that mistake again.
If this pandemic has taught us anything, it is surely that our NHS and social care service, and the staff who care for all of us, need to be fully funded and supported in the months ahead. We will support this lockdown on Wednesday—we will vote for it—but the British people are again being asked to make huge sacrifices, so, in return, Ministers must not waste this lockdown. They must take action to improve the test and tracing system, they should expand the new testing techniques and we must give the NHS and our social care system the support they need to get through the months ahead.

Jeremy Hunt: I wholeheartedly support these measures. When we look at the starkness of the data presented to the country at the weekend, we see that the issue is not whether the lockdown is wise, but whether we use the lockdown wisely. I hope that the Health Secretary will forgive me, as his predecessor, if I set out one or two of the things we need to use the next month to sort out if we are to ensure that this is the last coronavirus lockdown and that it is a short one.
First, it will not surprise the Health Secretary that I say this, but we must introduce weekly testing of NHS staff. In the first wave, up to 11% of coronavirus hospital deaths happened to people who picked up their infection in their own hospital. For the basic principles of patient safety and staff safety, we must make sure that that does not happen a second time; otherwise cancer patients will worry whether it is safe to go to their hospital, staff will worry about whether they are infecting their own patients and we will see the NHS again descend into being a covid-only service. We had some hospitals in London where more than 40% of staff were infected in the previous wave. It would be unforgiveable to let that happen again. I know that the Secretary of State is sympathetic and would like to do this. I would just urge him to do it as soon as possible.

Matthew Hancock: My right hon. Friend knows that I agree with him. Indeed, we are rolling this out now, but we do need to get it everywhere.

Jeremy Hunt: I would be very grateful, and I know that staff everywhere would be grateful, if my right hon. Friend could give some indication of when all NHS staff can be confident that they will be tested, but I thank him very much for that answer.
Secondly, I hope the Secretary of State will not mind me saying that this is the moment when we have to fix contact tracing. To be reaching only 60% of people’s known contacts is not good enough. He knows that, and he does not try to defend it—

Jon Ashworth: He does.

Jeremy Hunt: No, no. This is the point: when we have 50,000 people being infected every single day, it is a massive logistical task, but if we are honest, we still had problems when it was a tenth of that number being infected every day. This is the moment to recognise the  uncomfortable truth that this would be better done locally, with local authorities taking the ultimate responsibility. While we are making these changes to the contact tracing regime, to have only 20% of people who are infected and told to self-isolate actually complying suggests only one answer, which is that we as the state should pay their wages for the period that they have been asked to isolate. That is expensive, but it is less expensive than the cost of them not complying with the important direction to isolate.
On a more technical matter, I ask the Health Secretary to consider whether there is a way we can speed up the approval of the new therapeutic drugs that are coming online. As he knows, we generally wait until both safety and efficacy are proved before approval is given to a new drug. However, in a pandemic, would it not be right to allow the mass marketing of drugs to go ahead as soon as they are deemed safe, even though we cannot guarantee their efficacy? That could save lives, and any delay might mean that people could not get the benefits of those new drugs.
I want to finish on the issue of population testing. My right hon. Friend and I have had many discussions about this and again I know that he is sympathetic. We are in an immensely stronger position because of the huge improvements in testing capacity that he rightly celebrated in his earlier comments. However grave the situation we are in now, it would be a whole lot graver if we had not increased testing capacity from 10,000 a day to 100,000 a day, and then to 500,000 a day last week and potentially 1 million a day by Christmas. We are not far off the 2 million a day that would be needed to test the whole population every month.
Now is the time for us to tell the public how we are going to chart a course to that destination, because this is the only true light at the end of the tunnel. Charting a course to that destination means charting a course through the incredibly complex logistics and through the technology that will be necessary to record who has or has not had their positive test on time, but if we can show people that there is a date next spring by which the whole population will be tested on a regular basis, we will also be showing people that there is a way through this pandemic. In that way, our national depression would be lifted and we would be able to give the hope to our constituents that is now in such desperately short supply.

Gavin Newlands: Covid-19 has produced the biggest health and economic challenges since the war. Those two factors are inextricably linked, and until we have the virus under some kind of control, the economic impact will continue to be felt in all areas of our economy and, indeed, our country. We must end the fallacy promoted by excitable columnists and their right-wing chums that there is a choice to be made between protecting the economy and protecting the people. There is not, and those who spread this dangerous nonsense should know the damage and distress they are causing. For example, the founder of Pret a Manger has said:
“Society will not recover if we do it again to save a few thousand lives of very old or vulnerable people.”
I wonder what Mr Metcalfe’s elderly relatives thought of his outright dismissal of the value of their lives. That  sort of dangerous and nonsensical rhetoric implies that there is some sort of trade-off between premature death and our society’s wealth. I do not accept that for a moment, and I hope that this Government will condemn those attitudes completely. Society itself is linked to the economy and, until we are past this virus, ensuring that people stay alive, safe and healthy is not just the right thing to do as human beings, but the right thing to do for our wider society and prosperity.
The economy is not an abstract concept; it is where my constituents, indeed all our constituents, earn their living. As a constituency Member representing an airport, I am all too aware of the huge pressures that the aviation industry in particular has been under during these past eight months. I totally respect the UK Government’s view that travel outwith the UK will not be allowed for residents of England. They are entitled to draw up restrictions that best fit England, but they will have an impact on aviation and airports across England, and the Prime Minister and his Government have to recognise that. Even with furlough, this industry, which directly and indirectly employs nearly a million people across the UK, needs the kind of bespoke support that the Chancellor promised at the beginning of this pandemic. Regional economies across the country face disaster if that support is not forthcoming. There must be a recognition that the restrictions that come into force this week in England require not only a furlough package, but targeted intervention in key sectors of our economy, including in aviation. That targeted intervention must also encompass the wider transport industry.
Already we have seen Alexander Dennis announce 650 job losses driven by a collapse in demand for buses from operators. We face the prospect of high-skilled, high-value jobs being lost forever, because the Government will not come up with a plan to secure our manufacturing industry that faces a short-term crisis in the middle of long-term growth and strength. The Transport Secretary stood at the Dispatch Box in July and promised £3 billion to help build 4,000 buses. That is welcome, but that money and those orders are needed now to protect the remaining jobs at Alexander Dennis and beyond, otherwise by the time that money gets spent, we will be buying those 4,000 buses overseas rather than supporting indigenous businesses and jobs.
The Scottish Government are doing everything in their power to stimulate a sustained economic recovery, but while other Governments are able to borrow to finance a response, the Scottish Government are unable to do so. In fact, Transport for London will be able to borrow 400% more this year than the entire Scottish Government will be able to borrow for this year. Such are the constraints that are put in place by the devolution settlement.
That being said, Scotland is seeing some early tentative success in driving case rates down with the measures introduced in the central belt last month. That is down to the hard work and collective action taken by the majority of people in Scotland. Indeed, Scotland’s five-level restriction system went live today. It is a system aligned as much as possible with England’s three tiers for simplicity and the easier application of Treasury support. This has been hard for all, but harder still for many. It is also clear that the situation is still finely balanced, and that balance is not helped by devolved and local authorities being hamstrung by a Treasury that does not recognise  that the world and the UK constitution have moved on in the past 30 years, and that its grip has to loosen, especially as we are in the middle of a public health emergency.
I urge the Treasury to come to its senses and agree a framework with the devolved Administrations that gives real flexibility on furlough and allows Governments to protect jobs and protect the economy. Announcements of this kind need to be taken in close consultation, not by surprise announcements on Twitter or from a No.10 podium. Following the failure to confirm this over the weekend, the general secretary of the Scottish Trades Union Congress said that continued UK Government opposition to flexible furlough
“would mark a new low point in the UK government’s treatment of Scottish workers and public health in Scotland.”
Even the hon. Member for Moray (Douglas Ross), the leader of the Scottish Conservatives here, believes that that should be the case. He asked,
“how could a Unionist government not restart the scheme if a second lockdown is required in Scotland?”
Let us try to forget the fact that he has come a little late to the party and embrace the fact that he has shown up at all. None the less, it does take something special to unite the Scottish Tories and the Scottish trade unionists, but that was and is the reality in Scotland following the Prime Minister’s Saturday night address.
We face a fairly chaotic situation now following the Prime Minister’s answer to the aforementioned hon. Member. He arrogantly dismissed questions from many Members from across the UK—not just from SNP and Scottish Members—about furlough being extended to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland when it is needed. He went on to give a fairly woolly assurance to the hon. Member for Moray who is now running around quoting him, trying to claim a grand political victory for the Scottish Tories when, a very short time ago, there was no agreement that the furlough scheme actually had to be extended at all. The sad thing is that the statement the Prime Minister gave is not what the Scottish Office is saying, it is not what the Scottish Conservative shadow economy spokesperson said on the radio and, crucially, it is not what the Treasury is saying to the Scottish Government. I am not saying that I mistrust the Prime Minister, but until I see an assurance in writing from the Treasury, I will assume the status quo remains.
Of course, this U-turn, coming as it did well beyond the eleventh hour, has come far too late for many businesses and many workers who are without a livelihood as we approach the bleakest winter for job prospects for decades. This disrespectful approach to the devolved Governments confirms what most people in Scotland have thought for years—that it is Greater London that drives the political agenda of the UK. When devolved Governments joined business leaders and unions to ask for furlough to be extended to save jobs and give Cardiff, Belfast and Edinburgh flexibility in their public health approach, the Government said, “No, we can’t afford it.” When MPs, Select Committee reports, business groups and others called for support for the 3 million excluded from Government programmes, the Government said, “No, we can’t afford it.” When the Mayor of Manchester asked for Treasury funds to support the local lockdowns, the Government haggled and said no. But when it was suggested that an English national   lockdown was required and that London and the south-east would be affected, the Chancellor suddenly remembered where he had put the magic money tree and said yes.
The truth is that the Government like to call themselves a one-nation Government, but if there was any doubt whatever which country that was, we can now see it, plain as day. Even if only for their precious Union, the Treasury must see sense, treat the devolved Governments and the people of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with respect and agree a scheme that recognises the different needs across these isles. It must be on the same basis as the Chancellor has delivered for England.

Jonathan Edwards: May I add to the point that the hon. Gentleman is making? He will be aware that the Welsh Government have given care workers a £500 bonus, but I have constituents whose families have lost benefits because the Treasury has treated that bonus for care workers working during the pandemic as income. It is disgraceful.

Gavin Newlands: That is the first time I have heard that and it is absolutely disgraceful. The DWP and the Minister should really look at that. It is not on, particularly in the pandemic situation that we are facing at the moment, and the hon. Gentleman makes his point well.
We are now 60 days away from a potential no-deal Brexit. The EU offered, indeed practically begged, the UK to postpone negotiations until we have all collectively dealt with the pandemic, but the fanaticism of the British state in believing that they could carry on singing “Rule Britannia!” in the middle of the biggest health emergency the world has seen is breath-taking. I am extremely worried—I do not believe I am alone—that we could be headed for a situation in the new year that will have an impact on our collective response to the pandemic, and which may cost unnecessary lives. No one disputes the scale of the challenge faced by the Prime Minister and his Government. It is a challenge that Governments across the world and these isles are having to face, but there should be no doubt that the Prime Minister and his colleagues are failing that challenge.
The Government are driven by old chums, cronies and cash—taxpayers’ cash. There is no logical reason why someone who was at the helm of a company responsible for one of the biggest data breaches in British history is now in charge of England’s Test and Trace system. There is no logical reason why that Test and Trace system has been privatised into the hands of Serco, Deloitte, G4S, Mitie, Sodexo, Boots and a labyrinth of subcontractors, agencies, consultants, spivs and chancers, or that substantial PPE contracts should be awarded to a loss-making company in Gloucestershire that—coincidentally—happens to be run by a Conservative councillor.
The contempt for those outside the gilded circle extends to anyone outside the M25. When the Mayor of Greater Manchester called for employment support when tougher regulations were introduced in his area, he was accused of playing politics. When the First Minister of Wales asked for additional support to help his people during the firebreak, he was ridiculed and ignored. When the First Minister of Scotland asked for flexibility in extending furlough in the event that Scotland needed it, she and the Finance Secretary were told no.
The people of Scotland can see the chaotic and bumbling style emanating from No. 10, and an analysis of recent polls suggests our judgment of the Government, and the Prime Minister in particular, is bleak and total. The Prime Minister’s job approval rating in Scotland is minus 58%, whereas the First Minister enjoys a job approval of plus 49%. That is a lead of 109 percentage points. I have been, quite sadly, avidly interested in politics for a very long time—since an unnaturally young age—and I have never seen anything quite as stark as that. Indeed, YouGov found that the First Minister was more popular than the Prime Minister in England. I suspect that this is why, in recent days and weeks, we have seen the hon. Member for Moray running as fast as he possibly can from the Prime Minister. But the real concern for the Government and many Members of this House is the clear increase in the level of support for Scottish independence. The poll had support at 58%. With this latest polling debacle that the Minister for the Union has presided over, I suspect that the first 60% poll is now within sight. The message is clear. If this Government continue to make decisions that ignore the wishes of those outside the M25, they do so at their precious Union’s peril.

Bernard Jenkin: If I may just respond to the hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands), I do not feel that this House is ignoring Scotland; I feel that this House has voted for very large sums of extra money to be devoted to Scotland. But perhaps my Government need to be more mindful of the fact that these things can be so easily misconstrued in the heat of Scottish politics, and it is the responsibility of the Government to make sure that they are not so misconstrued.
This crisis was incredibly unexpected, even though it took months to arrive, and almost every western Government was extraordinarily ill-prepared for it. There have been unprecedented challenges, inevitable mistakes, much experimentation, much learning and much wasted, but much achieved. However, the politics of this country inevitably tends to revert to type, and we have seen a bit more of that in the House of Commons today with what we do best in here, which is to disagree with each other for the sake of disagreement. Somehow we have to try to rise above that in this crisis.
The opposition to these measures on the Government Benches reflects declining public confidence in the Government’s covid response, and it is public confidence that the Government should, above all else, strive to address. So what needs to be done to strengthen public confidence? We heard quite a lot about that in the speech by my right hon. Friend the Member for South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt). A lot of it is about having a plan, explaining a plan, and giving people hope that there is a plan. The measures announced on Saturday are another reaction that has set the course for the next four weeks, but beyond that, the Government have not published any plan. I have been asking for some time for a plan called “Living with coronavirus”. There may be a single vaccine that gets us out in one go, but that is most unlikely to happen, so we will go on needing to manage the spread of the virus for many months and possibly even years. How are the Government going to do that? The Royal Society certainly does not expect an instant vaccine.
There are basically three choices facing this House. The first is to control the virus with more of these economically ruinous lockdowns. We all agree that that is not going to be acceptable, and we have heard frustration being expressed by some of my colleagues. The second is to expand the NHS to gargantuan proportions so that we can deal with as many people who get infected. We cannot afford to do that and we do not have the capacity to do it. The only solution is to try to manage the virus, perhaps with vaccines but certainly with Test and Trace. We have had six months to get Test and Trace to where it is. Let us celebrate the 500,000 tests a day and the huge organisation that has been established, but we should ask ourselves what needs to be done in order for us to have as effective testing and tracing as people have in Japan and in Korea. They had years practising in the aftermath of SARS—severe acute respiratory syndrome. We have had to achieve this very much more quickly, but that does not mean that we cannot adapt those experiences of very different societies to our own immediate future to make sure that we do a much better job.
We need to carry on improving the data. The fact that Test and Trace is divided among four different directorates in four different locations, and that the data directorate has had three directors general in the past five or six months, does not suggest that there is much continuity or co-ordination across Test and Trace.
We need to deliver a campaign to change behaviour on the street. This cannot be done from a spreadsheet in Whitehall. It cannot be done from remote call centres with unfamiliar telephone numbers. It can only be done with person-to-person human contact. Go and ask the Japanese how they are doing it. It is very analogue. It is very old-fashioned. There is an app— every country has an app—but an app is a tiny proportion of what people can achieve. People are not going to use an app if they think it just results in them being rung up by some stranger and told what to do. That is not working.
Above all, NHS Test and Trace needs a single command structure and a single plan. However localised the delivery is, and I am very much in favour of using local authorities—the local authority pilots that have been carried out already have proved very much more successful in contacting a much higher proportion of people—every local authority should be so funded. However, we need a central headquarters, preferably run by a military capability that can bring this together and win this together.

Rosie Winterton: Order. In order to get everybody in, after the next speaker I will need to reduce the time limit to four minutes, which is what was in place in the debate before the recess. Perhaps colleagues might like to tell the hon. Member for Wycombe (Mr Baker) when he returns that it will be four minutes for his speech.

Stephen Doughty: Dither, delay and disaster—that was the Prime Minister’s own word today—and, of course, it did not have to be this way. There has never been a starker contrast between the gross failings of the Prime Minister and the leadership shown by my right hon. Friend the Leader of the Opposition, my hon. Friends on the  Labour Front Bench and our Welsh Labour First Minister, Mark Drakeford, in calling for action at the right time and taking action at the right time on a firebreak lockdown. Instead, we saw a Prime Minister who ridiculed the proposals, describing them as “the height of absurdity”. His office described the Leader of the Opposition as “an opportunist”. The Chancellor blocked those who wanted to act sooner, and now we are seeing the same mistakes repeated that we saw earlier in the year. Forty days have been wasted, with the consequence that England will now face a longer, harder lockdown and worse consequences.
What a contrast with Wales, where our First Minister set out a difficult but clear set of restrictions, with common-sense exemptions, when he announced our firebreak weeks ago. He has communicated throughout with, and engaged and listened to, our elected representatives, councils, businesses and trade unions—the hallmark of his approach throughout this crisis—bringing Wales together to tackle the tough reality that covid presents. Today, he has set out that on 9 November our firebreak will end, not in a free-for-all, but with a sensible, clear, national set of measures, where people will be encouraged to do the minimum, not the maximum, allowed and we will prioritise the safety of their families, their friends and our NHS as we continue to be led by the evidence and the threat of this virus.
The consequences of the wider approach taken by the Prime Minister could not be more serious for our collective health and the economy. As the Independent SAGE meeting last week suggested, over the next four weeks, we will now potentially see deaths locked in in their thousands in England if the trends continue, and the mental health and the economic impacts will be for longer and deeper. That is the cost of delay, and I have never known a more incompetent and reckless Prime Minister, Chancellor and Government.
Matt Chorley reported what Tory MPs tell him in private—they often tell us in private, too. There were comments such as:
“Shambolic. Rudderless ramblings. Constituents getting in touch furious or in tears”,
“Grim grim grim”
and
“I think it could be his Suez”.
At least they have the guts to be honest in private, but others, extraordinarily, would rather brazen it out in public. The Minister for Patient Safety, Mental Health and Suicide Prevention claimed that only a crystal ball could have predicted the need for a second lockdown—it is absolutely extraordinary. Has she even been reading her briefs? Anybody can see from the graphs, the trends or the historical examples—

Nadine Dorries: Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

Stephen Doughty: No, I will not—the Minister made her comments very clear publicly. Of course, others were simply patronising. [Interruption.] Oh, go on then—I will give way to her.

Nadine Dorries: I thank the hon. Gentleman for giving way. The cases of infections, particularly in the over-60s, and the demand on hospital beds far exceed the previous reasonable worst-case scenario.

Stephen Doughty: Yes, and of course the First Minister and the Health Minister, my colleague Vaughan Gething, saw the same evidence, took action and instituted a firebreak lockdown when it was needed.
Other Tory MPs have been simply patronising. The Minister for the Middle East and North Africa, the right hon. Member for Braintree (James Cleverly), said:
“If you want to see how a Labour government would be dealing with the current COVID-19 situation just look at how they’re doing in Wales.”
Well, yes, Minister—we would be feeding kids throughout the holidays and running a fully functioning test, trace and protect system throughout the UK. The figures speak for themselves: since June, 94% have been reached and 95% of their contacts have been reached. Instead of contracting it out to Serco and the other companies under the shambolic oversight of one of the Prime Minister’s pals, we would be acting decisively across the UK, in accordance with the scientific advice, when it mattered.
The Welsh Conservatives are all over the place today, describing our lockdown as “disproportionate and unnecessary” and refusing to back the Prime Minister’s plans for a lockdown in England. What an absolute shambles. A firebreak lockdown is right and has my support, but those affected need the right economic support from the UK Treasury. We have again seen the UK Government wait until the last minute to act to support people in Wales, meaning a huge amount of anxiety for people in my constituency and preventable job losses. That is not to mention the delays in the announcement of support for the self-employed and the failure to do the right thing on furlough and co-operate with Wales in time for our measures to come into place. That the Government instead played petty partisan politics is deeply disappointing and will undoubtedly have led to people losing jobs.
We now need clear answers to a number of questions. Will we see backdated support to address the Chancellor’s failure to act in relation to Wales until he decided to announce the England-wide measures? Will there be confirmation of what the Prime Minister said about the support available if we go into measures again after 2 December? I think he said it would be available “wherever it is needed”. What transparency will there be on the additional support for Wales as a result of the business grant support announced for England? What will happen in terms of universal credit and support for families who are deeply affected by losing jobs and income? We need to see an end to the game-playing.
Lastly, I wish to refer to the issue that I brought up earlier, as did my hon. Friend the Member for Leicester South (Jonathan Ashworth): vaccines. It is crucial that we have hope in these dark times. I thank our NHS, care workers and key workers, and all the brilliant scientists and medical professionals who are working to improve testing capability, drive new treatments and find a vaccine. There are, though, serious questions about the involvement of the chair of the vaccines taskforce in an online seminar costing $200 a head for American investors, and the sharing of official sensitive documents. It is absolutely right that the shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster—my hon. Friend the Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves)—and my hon. Friend the Member for Leicester South have been asking questions about the conflicts of interest, why that information was shared with that group of people instead of with this House, and whether that was inappropriate. I hope  we get some answers from the Cabinet Secretary on those questions, because they are very serious and we need hope and optimism on a vaccine and the information given to this House.
It is clear that we need support for our economy and all those affected, and we need clarity on a vaccine. People need hope in these dark times.

Eleanor Laing: Order. The time limit is reduced to four minutes.

Steven Baker: This morning, I chaired a meeting with the psychologist Emma Kenny. She spoke absolutely brilliantly so I shall shamelessly steal and abridge her speech from this morning. She said:
“Human beings are not meant to be isolated, in fact you are less likely to die if you smoke 15 cigarettes a day, than you are if you are lonely. Loneliness kills, which is why the Alzheimer’s society have been telling us for many, many months that care home restrictions are dangerous to their residents, the elderly literally wither and die…when they are kept from their close and loving bonds.
We are social creatures, and we need to physically experience the presence of others if we are to thrive. This is what makes us human, this is what keeps us healthy, and this is what kills us when we are denied.
And denied is what we have been, and what we continue to be. Research is telling us a terrifying story, and one that will be told for many, many years to come, one whose ending will be decided based on moments like today.”
Emma Kenny went on:
“I, and so many of my peers believe fiercely that children, more than any other demographic require safeguarding, legally and morally our democratic society should wish to protect children from harm. In fact, the Children’s act clearly, and rightly states that children’s welfare should be the paramount concern, and that physical, emotional, social and educational harm is unacceptable on any level where children are concerned…Yet, harm, abuse and neglect is exactly what the current restrictions are causing.
The last seven months has seen an exponential rise in reported levels of stress, anxiety and depression, with research finding that 80% of young people are experiencing a decline in their mental health. Suicidal thoughts in young people are also sharply rising, these are children, and they are so afraid, so traumatised, so concerned about their future, that they are deciding whether to experience a future at all. Indeed, the Government and the media have taught children to be afraid of living, of playing, of loving.
One of the biggest killers in the UK is poverty, in fact, poor people die on average ten years younger than their affluent peers, meaning they will not have the luxury of reaching the age of a Coronavirus death, and yet who are restrictions affecting most? The poor.
Children and young people are having their security ripped apart on every level. Their education, which for some children is the only consistent safety and care that they experience has been…desecrated, and thrown into chaos.
They are watching their parents lose jobs, they will soon watch them lose their homes, because restrictions are killing the economy, ruining businesses, and devasting the employment landscape, meaning that many adults will struggle to find work again... This silence”—
they are silenced because of lack of internet access—
“means that they cannot tell you their stories, and their story will unequivocally be to end restrictions so that they,”
those parents,
“can feed their children, and remain in the jobs and homes that they deserve to keep.
The Data is now there for all to see, and it unequivocally evidences the continued”—
Emma Kenny says—
“overreaction of this leadership.
Even more concerning is that scientists and medics who modelled their predictions correctly are constantly shut down, excluded and positioned as loose cannons in the scientific and wider community, even though each has been willing to stand in their truth at a cost to them financially, reputationally and institutionally. Why? They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose, but their integrity, compassion, and scientific dedication, along with their care for the wellbeing and future of the human race means that they cannot remain silent, no matter how loudly they are shut down and attacked, no matter how greatly they lose.
Truth tellers are always willing to lose, because,”
as she says, as her father taught her,
“the right way, is rarely the easy way, but it remains the right way nonetheless.”
She finishes by saying that:
“Churchill said, ‘All the greatest things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom; justice; honour; duty; mercy; hope.’”
She asks us to do our duty,
“to restore justice, to show the working classes mercy, and to return the very foundation that democracy is built upon. Freedom.”

Sammy Wilson: Many of the decisions we make in this House pass over the heads of the general public, sometimes because they only affect a small group, and other times because they take a long time to show an effect. But as the hon. Member for Wycombe (Mr Baker) has starkly illustrated—I will not go through it all for the sake of time—the decisions that we are making today will have an immediate impact on people across the country and a detrimental impact on their businesses, wellbeing and health.
I will make three observations. First, many of the decisions that we have made and are making here are based on the views of experts which, unfortunately, we have accepted uncritically. Of course, it is human nature, when we are faced with situations that we do not understand and that have a bad impact on our lives, to turn to those who we believe have some knowledge and understanding.
In primitive societies, when famines, plagues or diseases struck, people turned to the medicine men, who came with a bag of bones that they threw on the ground. They then made their analysis and told people what sacrifices had to be made to satisfy the gods. I suspect that our sophisticated society is not much different. We call them chief medical officers and they bring their computers with their models. They tell us what the problem is and what the sacrifices have to be, regardless of the impact on society.
We are criticised for criticising experts, but given some of the predictions that we have heard, we have  to ask whether they have shown that they understand  it. We were told that there would be 500,000 deaths  by now and, in the middle of September, that there would be 50,000 new cases a day by the middle of October. Neither has happened. We bought, or ordered, 90,000 ventilators because we were told that the national health service would be overrun; we used fewer than 4,000 of them. I could go on. We have to ask whether we uncritically accept the words of those who say that they are expert advisers.
Secondly, we must look at the entirety of the impact of the decisions we make. Unfortunately, we seem to have become obsessed with coronavirus and the impact on the health service, without looking at the impact on the economy and on people’s lives.
Thirdly, we must ask ourselves what the alternatives are. The evidence shows that this disease does not affect the whole of society. It has a disproportionate impact on a particular part of society—elderly people—yet we are using instruments that affect everybody. Very few deaths occur among people of working age, and many who are infected do not go on to have any real detrimental effects, yet we treat everyone the same. I do not have time to explore this, but the Great Barrington declaration advocates a targeted approach, and I believe that the Government should be looking at adopting that approach, rather than this blunt instrument of bashing the economy and bashing the populace in an unmerciful way.

Andrea Leadsom: The prospect of another lockdown is truly awful. Constituents are writing to me totally distraught at not being able to visit their families or facing the collapse of their business, and even those who are about to have a baby are wondering how on earth they are going to manage. If the Government have properly assessed the harm to all our citizens—to the nation’s mental and economic health—and still concluded that covid is a bigger threat than all the unemployment, all the lost dreams, all the health issues going undiagnosed, and all the loneliness and depression, then this time let us do it smarter and with compassion.
I want to make a few brief points. First, we learned in the first lockdown that general support for businesses is a good thing, but now we also know that some in certain key business sectors have been all but destroyed by the lockdown, such as hospitality businesses, weddings and events organisers, exhibitions, merchandising companies, and festival events organisers—in fact, anyone who depends on large gatherings. So while Whitehall Departments have distributed welcome support across the economy, we now need more targeted support for those businesses that can be saved in the longer term and, frankly, a tough conversation where they cannot.
Secondly, we need to support businesses to adapt to the new reality. We saw in the first lockdown the brilliance of some: a gin distiller turning its trade to manufacturing hand sanitisers; a dry cleaner becoming a face mask manufacturer; and many tradespeople developing perspex screens for tills. So what are the Government going to do to help businesses adapt and find a way through this?
Thirdly, we now know that some businesses that could carry on may be tempted, because Government support is so broad-ranging, to down tools, furlough staff and wait until better times emerge. The taxpayer should support businesses to get through this, but not those choosing to sit out the lockdown, leaving staff at home worrying when they could be out working. So, overall, my first plea to the Government is to target support for business during this new lockdown in a smart way.
My second plea to the Government is to implement the lockdown in a compassionate way. In the first lockdown we all took the science at face value; we were glued to the daily updates and followed the advice on what we could and could not do. I believe that this time around, however, there is likely to be a genuine issue with compliance. Many of our citizens are struggling financially, while some are struggling emotionally or worrying about their loved ones, and others are simply  feeling, “I’m not likely to die of covid and I’m not willing to give up my freedom for the sake of a few who might die.” To be clear, I am not condoning non-compliance in any way; I am giving a snapshot of what I am seeing in my email inbox.
The conclusion I draw from the views of my constituents is that it is essential this time that the Government do not just tell people what to do, but explain to them why this is important. The new restrictions must make sense to an ordinary sensible adult and should be defensible and explicable, yes, by an ordinary sensible MP. Outdoor swimming pools, village football, tennis and golf—do they really present a danger of spreading covid? As my constituent pointed out to me at the weekend, “When I play golf, I spend the whole time on my own in the bushes, looking for my ball.” If those outdoor pursuits, which provide such a lifeline, must stop, those whose liberties are being denied need to understand precisely why.

Rachael Maskell: If we had had a short circuit break at the beginning of autumn, fewer people would have been sick and fewer people would have died. The reality now is that we face a long, harsh lockdown at the very time people need support. I am worried about the loneliness those long dark nights will bring and the impact on people’s mental health. It is damaging not only for people, but for our economy.
I want to suggest two things that could make a difference over the lockdown period we will have to endure. They could make the difference that turns the tide and ultimately saves lives. The first suggestion is local contact tracing. I present it to the Minister with evidence for why we need localised test analysis and contact tracing. On testing, the delay in getting results is far too long. The local resilience forum in North Yorkshire said that after 24 hours, only 16% of tests are returned; after 48 hours, 60% are returned, and after 72 hours, 96% are returned. That is too long to wait to lock down the virus. If we could process those tests locally—test locally and process locally—we could have the results overnight. The University of York Aptima, a local laboratory, has the capability to do that in York. We need some seed funding from the Government, then we can process more than 6,000 tests a day in our city alone.
The evidence on contact tracing is clear. We have heard this evening that Serco turns round only 48% of contact tracing. City of York is already at 83% and had they had more effective data, which they could if they ran the system, they believe they could get to 100%. Indeed, last Wednesday, they did. The difference is stark. A quick response is key to getting on top of the virus—testing quickly, contact tracing quickly and isolating the virus quickly, as opposed to isolating people and the economy. The evidence is clear and I hope that the Government will respond to the suggestion of a localised system of public health.
Just over a week ago, the case rate in York was 307.2 per 100,000 cases. Since we have been doing our own contact tracing, it has fallen to 189.4 per 100,000 cases. That is the evidence the Government need to hold on to  to recognise that local contact tracing is effective. It delivers, it saves lives and it will ultimately see off this virus with some of the other measures mentioned.
Secondly, as we unlock the economy, I want to suggest a new approach. When we deal with public health in workplaces, we give workplaces the all clear and certify that they are safe. If a work or community environment is covid secure and certified to be so, it should remain open. As we just heard with the golf example, they do not carry the risk of the virus. If those places are not secure, improvement notices should be issued and venues should remain closed. That is a simple, public health approach, which will make a difference without harming the economy further.
Those are two simple suggestions that can turn the ship around and make the ultimate difference. We need to do that because we cannot risk the NHS, we cannot risk our economy further and ultimately, we cannot risk lives. I trust that the Minister will respond positively this evening.

Mark Harper: There are several points that I want to cover. First, I will just reiterate to the Minister what I said to the Leader of the House. I really do not think that a 90-minute debate on Wednesday is adequate for the decision the House is being asked to take, which will potentially cost 10% of our gross domestic product. It seems to me that that warrants a slightly longer debate to allow Members from both sides of the House to set out the concerns and questions that they might have and to properly represent their constituents. I would ask Ministers to reflect on whether they think a 90-minute debate is actually adequate.
I know Ministers have referred to the debates we have already had, but of course we have not seen the regulations yet. We are not planning on seeing them till tomorrow. I anticipate that they will be quite lengthy and that there will be many questions about them. I suspect Members who are lucky enough to participate in the debate will have just one or two minutes to make their points, and I really do not think that is adequate. Even at this stage, it is not too late for the Government to think again and give us a full day’s debate on Wednesday, perhaps even with the House sitting later to enable that to be taken into account.

Steven Baker: With apologies to the House, I just want to ask my right hon. Friend if he agrees with me that there has been rarely enough time for this subject—in particular, this evening—and whether the Government might consider putting on longer debates routinely.

Mark Harper: I take that point. I do have sympathy with the Government—I was a business manager—but it seems to me that the decision the House is being asked to make on Wednesday is an incredibly significant one that will impact on every single person who lives in England and, because of cross-border traffic, a very significant number of people who live in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland as well. It seems to me that a longer debate would be more sensible.
The second issue I want to turn to is also one that I raised earlier with the Leader of the House, referring back to what the Prime Minister said in the statement.  He said, in answer to the question from the right hon. Member for North Durham (Mr Jones), that the Government would publish and make available to Members all scientific information that underpinned the decisions the House is being asked to take. The House will know that one of the key pieces of information presented at the press conference on Saturday and referred to by the Prime Minister is the graph that sets out the scenarios for the number of deaths that may take place, and there is also the modelling that the NHS has done on the need for beds. As far as I am aware, none of that information has been published. The reasonable worst-case scenario, which the Minister, the hon. Member for Mid Bedfordshire (Ms Dorries), referred to in her exchange with the hon. Member for Cardiff South and Penarth (Stephen Doughty), has also not been published. The only thing that has been seen is a leaked version that went to The Spectator.
Again, it seems to me that, if we are going to make this decision, we need to see that evidence quickly so that we can make such a decision. The reason why I want to see it—I have an open mind as to what I am going to do on Wednesday, but this is the reason why I have a problem—is that in my area the prevalence of the virus is fairly low and the rate of prevalence among members of my community who are over 60 is low and flat or falling, so it seems to me that there is very little evidence that there is going to be a significant problem in our local hospitals, and that was reinforced by conversations we have had with those NHS professionals.
I am willing to accept that there may be evidence to say otherwise, but because what Ministers are saying is at variance with what I am being told locally, I do need to see some evidence. I am afraid that just seeing a graph, without seeing any of the assumptions or the data that underpin the models, particularly when they give such significantly different results, is not good enough. Let me give the Minister an example. Carl Heneghan, the professor of evidence-based medicine at Oxford, and Daniel Howdon, a senior research fellow, looked at the graph that was presented, and have pointed out that the worst of these scenarios suggested that on 1 November there would be 1,000 daily deaths, which is about four times the level of the actual number of deaths taking place. That does at least cast some doubt on the accuracy of that scenario, which is why I want to see all of the data.
At the conclusion of the debate I ask the Minister to confirm that that information, as the Prime Minister committed to earlier today, will all be published tomorrow at the latest, so that we have a proper chance to scrutinise it before we are asked to take a very significant decision on Wednesday. I hope she is able to give that assurance, which I think will reassure not just Members on both sides of the House, but the millions of constituents we represent, who will expect us to take that decision with great care.

Daisy Cooper: There are millions of people up and down the country asking a very simple question: what on earth is the plan? The lockdown in March was unprecedented, and we had just two to three weeks’ notice of what was happening in other countries, but we squandered that knowledge. There are no excuses for squandering the last eight months. I am pleased that  the Government have now held a four nations summit to agree guidance for Christmas, but we need to know when we will see that comprehensive, uniform guidance for family gatherings, so that families can start to plan and look forward to Christmas. When will we have guidance on transport, student return and asymptomatic testing?
Many Members on both sides of the House have repeatedly raised the issue of delays in non-covid cases. I would like to ask the Minister to look in particular at those suffering with either Crohn’s or colitis. Those two diseases are incredibly debilitating for a number of people. In many cases, they are as severe and sometimes as fatal as cancer, but they are often overlooked. Surgery for many Crohn’s and colitis patients has been pushed back by months, worsening their health outcomes. Will the Minister meet me and Crohn’s and Colitis UK to discuss its concerns?
Then we have test, trace and isolate. Again, the concerns have been well rehearsed by Members on both sides of the House. We need to see a plan to fix the test, trace and isolate system. We know that it is a three-legged stool—all three pillars of it need to be working. The Government proudly boast about how many tests are happening, but those tests have a limited value if they are not turned around in 24 hours, if contacts are not traced and if people are not self-isolating. The Government have also talked in the last 24 hours about lateral flow tests suddenly being available. That is good news, but when will public health directors hear back from the Department of Health and Social Care about when those will be provided? They have said that they would like to get some of those tests, but they have not heard back from Government about when they will receive them.
Another issue that has been raised time and again with the Government and with me as the MP for St Albans is care home visits. Relatives are having to watch their loved ones die of loneliness and a lack of contact in care homes. Thirty-minute visits and Zoom calls are just not sufficient for those people, who need the care, love and human touch of their relatives.
Finally, when will there be a plan for schools that provides safety and certainty for students, parents and teachers? Without knowing whether or how exams will take place next May, teachers are at their wits’ end, not knowing what they should be teaching right now. They are being asked to keep their schools open without any assurances about when they will get their test results turned around in 24 hours. How will we keep students, parents and teachers safe if we are going to keep schools and colleges open? Up and down the country, people have lots and lots of questions. They want a Government who will plan ahead and stop lurching week to week from crisis to crisis. When will the Government come up with a plan?

William Wragg: I understand that I am quickly building a reputation in this House for being somewhat grumpy and contrarian—[Hon. Members: “Building?”] Or indeed cementing the pinnacle of it. I can understand why those on the Front Bench may regard me as one of the characters from “The Muppet Show”; perhaps Statler and Waldorf—some cantankerous muppet perched high up in the gallery.
My brief remarks this evening, believe it or not, are meant to act as an encouragement to the Government in the work that they are doing, but I must begin by quoting the phrase, “We’re all in this together.” I have never found that phrase particularly convincing, not least because it is often expressed by those who tend to be all right regardless of the circumstances. During this pandemic, I fear that it is ringing hollow, despite the many valiant efforts of intervention made by the Government. I am afraid there is a great divide in the country—I say this with the best humour possible—between well-paid white-collar public sector workers such as us, who make the decisions and on whom there will be no economic effect, and those of our constituents who are suffering great financial hardship. There is considerable and understandable resentment from those who have, as a result of whatever technicality, been left behind.
Regrettably, the Government’s invidious policy choice in tackling this covid pandemic will inevitably impoverish society for a generation. The only means we have of limiting that impoverishment is finding a way out of a cycle of lockdowns. I think of those who are worse off than ourselves—those who are poorly housed; those who are insecurely employed; those who are victims of abuse; those with long-term mental health conditions; and indeed a younger generation entering a job market where they have little prospect of finding a job worthy of their qualifications and abilities.
There is understandable talk about and need for the Government to be positive and to boost morale—that is not something that one of my speeches could ever be accused of; I have never sought to boost morale particularly—but I gently suggest that “adequate” is a level of expectation that the country could understand and appreciate. My greatest concern of all is that there is a level of over-promising, and the greatest over-promise risks being the promise of a vaccine. We need to inculcate personal responsibility again in the population. It is an interesting observation that the more measures, rules and laws we pass, the less the sense of compliance, as things appear to be done to rather than with others.
There is much talk of this four-week semi-lockdown, if I can call it that. It is a four-week period that must be used wisely; as has been said, it is a time to sort out test and trace, but frankly I think it is also a time for the Government to reboot themselves—both their policy and their operation—and I dare say for us all to take that attitude too.

Mary Foy: The situation we are facing is farcical, quite frankly. Before recess, the Prime Minister stood at the Dispatch Box and mocked the Leader of the Opposition for calling for a two-week circuit-break lockdown over half term, yet, because of the Prime Minister’s usual dither and delay, we now face a lockdown that will last at least a month. It is not good enough. Although every community must do their bit, the blame for this lockdown must lie squarely at the feet of the Government.
I want to raise a number of crucial points that my constituents have contacted me about. The first is the way the Government have approached this pandemic  geographically. When the tier system was introduced to try to slow the spread of the virus, the north was hit the hardest. In Durham and the wider north-east, communities responded to the threat of greater restrictions by working together and following the rules, which resulted in a steady drop in cases, yet now that the infection rate is rising in the south, the Prime Minister has announced a national lockdown. It betrays the Government’s attitude to those in the north that a regionalised approach was taken only when it did not impact the south.
On top of that, when large parts of the north were placed in tier 3, we were told that furloughed workers deserved only 67% of their wage, yet now that the south is in lockdown, that has risen to 80%. Although, obviously, I support that rise, it certainly reveals a lot about this Government’s attitude to the north: out of sight, out of mind.
Secondly, given the concerns of education unions, it would be wrong if I did not touch on the issue of schools. Today, a constituent contacted me to say that her child is 16 and lives with heart failure. If she were an adult, she would be able to work from home, as someone who is extremely vulnerable. Instead, she must go to school, where coronavirus infections are common. Countless pupils and educational staff will be in similar positions. Every teacher, child and parent wants schools to remain open if possible, yet the National Education Union and the University and College Union tell us that schools and colleges are not fully safe right now. The Government must urgently make the necessary changes to fix that. Schools need to stay open, but only if they are safe. No one should have to go into a workplace that is not safe.
Finally, I feel it necessary to mention the impact of gym closures, especially for women. Gyms act as relatively safe spaces for women to exercise, and many simply cannot do so outdoors in the dark with the same confidence or security. As we all know, exercise plays a vital role in people’s mental and physical wellbeing. While people will accept the closure of gyms, sports facilities and grassroots sport in the short term, the Government must urgently detail how such environments can be covid-secure, and must support them in their efforts to operate safely and stay open.
It frustrates me to have to give this speech today. This Government have had seven months to respond to the pandemic. They have failed on testing, failed on track and trace, and failed to support workers and businesses properly. Because of the Government’s incompetence, we are virtually back to where we were in March. No one has demanded perfection, and I understand the complications, but it is not unrealistic to call for competence and to expect the Government to learn from their mistakes. I urge the Government to use this month to get a grip on the virus. It is time to stop handing out jobs and contracts to their pals, and focus instead on their actual duty—protecting public health and reviving the economy—because the public and this House are fast losing patience.

Angela Richardson: It has been a rather sombre debate this evening, and the subject matter is very serious, but I hope the House does not mind if I inject a bit of positivity for the next four minutes. I will start by highlighting the enormous financial package that has supported businesses, organisations,  charities, arts and culture—a package that has sustained services run by our local councils, and has helped our health providers continue to care for us. In my constituency, over £92.5 million of bounce back and business interruption loans have been taken up so far. The ability to furlough staff and take advantage of the self-employed grants has been lauded by everyone I have spoken to, and I am pleased that the Chancellor has extended furlough and announced the doubling of the self-employed income support scheme today, as we look to implement national restrictions to help support our NHS and save lives.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government has been generous in its support for my two local councils, with funding so far of over £1.8 million for Guildford Borough Council and over £1.5 million for Waverley Borough Council. These figures sit within the generous support there has been at county level to deliver councils’ statutory services. Rough sleeping is an issue that I have been focused on locally, and the several tranches of funding to address it, including the recent £770,000 for long-term accommodation as the days get colder, are hugely welcome. The Royal Surrey County Hospital has received £500,000 to prepare for winter, and well prepared they are under the excellent direction of chief executive Louise Stead, with a new 20-bed ward specifically for a second wave of the virus and medical professionals who have learned much during the first wave that will benefit patients in this autumn wave of cases.
I could go on and on, because the support has gone on and on, but it is important to recognise the fact that we in Guildford, Cranleigh and our villages were already well prepared for the impact of lockdown earlier this year, because we had in place a thriving voluntary network. These volunteers, including Voluntary Action South West Surrey and Cranleigh’s Street Champions—put together by Liz Townsend, the chairman of Cranleigh Parish Council, with support from many who continually volunteer in Cranleigh—must be recognised. The response to my Unsung Hero campaign was heart-warming: Debbie Foster in Fairlands received over 25 nominations for mobilising volunteers, and Adrian Whitehead delivered 100 medical prescriptions a week in Fairlands from his mobility scooter.
Special recognition must be given to Nick Wyschna and his wife Charlotte, who run the Guildford Fringe, for their drive to pull together excellent online comedy shows and live performances to bring the community together in fundraising efforts for the Royal Surrey County Hospital Charity and the Wysch Foundation, which works to make arts accessible to everyone. These Facebook live events were very successful and well supported, and I see that the Guildford Fringe has already adapted quickly and moved a performance online for the end of this week. Siobhan Fox and Scott Kerr, both pilots anxiously waiting to hear what would become of their jobs, put their own worries aside to serve refreshments as volunteers at the Royal Surrey County Hospital.
During lockdown, there was fantastic and incredibly helpful cross-party engagement. We work well when we work together, and that was my experience; it is the best way to deliver quickly for residents. Hope is so important right now. There is fatigue and anxiety, and we are concerned for those we know and love, for their jobs and their mental health. We cannot ignore any of these  issues and we do not. This Government and all of us in our communities are defined not by the easy times, but by the times when we have to dig into those extra pockets of reserves that we never knew we had, to keep going, and to keep fighting and not giving up. I pay tribute to the incredible energy and courage of everyone involved in tackling this pandemic, including my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Health, all the Health Ministers, our chief medical officer, his deputies, the chief scientific advisers and those working at all levels of our NHS for the work that they have done and continue to do for us all. It truly is a national health service, which is why it is right—right now—to introduce national restrictions to ensure that all health needs can be cared for.

Jim Shannon: It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Guildford (Angela Richardson); I thank her for her speech.
I, as much as anyone here, know at first hand that there is no way of understanding this virus—how it takes one and leaves another, or how it spreads in one room in 15 minutes, yet in other rooms people sit for hours with no transmission. I recognise, as others do, the incomprehensible aspect of this disease, so I also recognise that it is difficult to strategise. Looking forward, what should our next steps be? We have the benefit in this second wave of not being as unsure as we were. Our NHS has equipment and more medical knowledge. There are plasma trials, which appear to make a difference. We know which interventions are the better ones. I am pleased that we have the Nightingale hospitals.
I was also pleased to hear the Prime Minister and the NHS reiterating the need for people to attend appointments if they need screenings and tests, because my abiding concern has been and will be whether we are saving people from covid at the expense of allowing people to die from cancer—a point that other Members have mentioned. One of my constituents said to me, “Is my husband’s death meaningless because it was cancer and not covid that took him?” It is imperative that we protect the NHS by doing the right thing, and the NHS has to be open for day-to-day business; it is so important to ensure that that happens.
If hon. Members look at my head, they will know that I do not go to a barber very often. I just use a shammy; I do not even use a comb. But that is by the by. I say that in jest, but I do want to make a plea for barbers and hairdressers, who have got the R rate to 0.02. I ask myself, why on earth are they subject to rules and regulations when their R rate is the one that the whole nation wants to get to? We want to get it to 1; they have got it to 0.02. Those people could end up having had six months of reduced wages. Just how can we let them down? Those people have bought houses and have been buying gifts on the high street—it just so happens that Newtownards High Street in my constituency is the Northern Ireland high street of the year. How do we let those retailers down?
Simon Hamilton, the chief executive officer of Belfast Chamber of Trade and Commerce, has said:
“COVID-19 has created an interlinked health and economic emergency. This pandemic has cost lives and already has driven numerous businesses to closure causing a huge number of job losses which are reflected in the latest labour market statistics  which show the second highest number of redundancies ever during a period when the furlough scheme was meant to protect jobs… Businesses have invested millions of pounds in making their stores, their restaurants, their pubs, their hotels and their factories safe for staff and safe for customers.”
Without the willing co-operation of those businesses, where would we be? He continued:
“It has been an unprecedented period of uncertainty and challenge. After finding the fortitude to keep going after months of lockdown, restrictions and closure earlier this year, many believed that they were starting to see light at the end of the tunnel only for that to now be extinguished.”
That is what really worries me about where we are. It is about finding a balance for health and for business.
The Minister is not here, but there is a good understudy—the Lord Commissioner of Her Majesty’s Treasury, the hon. Member for Castle Point (Rebecca Harris)—in her place taking notes. I ask the Government to reconsider the closure of churches. My email inbox has been full of requests on their behalf. Our lockdown in Northern Ireland has been successful and we have been able to give people a place to go once a week to meet in unity and pray for the future of this nation—to seek God for strength, peace, comfort, hope, wisdom, forgiveness and even joy at this difficult time.

Jon Ashworth: I am sure that the hon. Gentleman is as pleased as I am that Leicester are winning 2-0 against Leeds.
On the hon. Gentleman’s point about places of worship, a lot of my own constituents have got in touch about our gurdwaras, temples, mosques and churches, and are deeply concerned about this. I hope that before the vote on Wednesday—we will be supporting the lockdown regulations—Ministers can come to the Dispatch Box and give us some reassurances around places of worship. It is a very important issue and I am pleased that the hon. Gentleman has raised it.

Jim Shannon: I thank the hon. Gentleman for that. I already knew the score because my hon. Friend the Member for North Antrim (Ian Paisley) had told me. I said, “I am pleased we are winning 2-0, but there’s still 70 minutes to go.” I really want Leicester to win, as my wife supports Leeds United and it is really important we win tonight.
I tabled an early-day motion asking for a National Day of Prayer. It states:
“That this House notes the unprecedented position that the covid-19 pandemic has brought the nation to; further notes that in this time of economic and societal uncertainty the country should follow the lead of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II and recognise the importance of prayer when Her Majesty said in her 2013 address that prayer helps us to renew ourselves; and calls on the Prime Minister to initiate a National Day of Prayer to enable those for whom this is important to seek God”.
We need wisdom, and the call for a National Day of Prayer is for those of Christian faith and others to unite together and pray for the help we so desperately need. We need support for the NHS, businesses and the vulnerable, but we also need to humble ourselves and ask God to make the path straight as we work together to come through this covid winter ahead of us. We must trust God and we must pray for the help we need. I think every one of us here should adhere to that.

Deidre Brock: We will all salute the efforts made by so many people in facing up to challenges they could never have expected a year ago. They have performed outstanding feats and endured great personal sacrifice, and the human cost will not be known or even properly guessed at for years to come. They have been let down by this incompetent Tory Government, who put dogma above pragmatism and their cronies above the people.
The Coronavirus Act 2020, written as a flu pandemic measure, was crafted in the aftermath of Exercise Cygnus some years ago, so I imagine that the options were presented to Ministers, who then chose which ones to use. There was nothing in there about taking over private healthcare facilities though, and I wonder why Ministers chose not to do so. To be clear, we are talking about not only private hospitals, but private clinics, whose staff, with clinical training, may have been very useful in the middle of a pandemic when the NHS was stretched. I am aware of allied health professionals who were unable to work because their clinics, or the clinics that employ them, were closed. These were health professionals who wanted to help out where they could but could not even volunteer for the NHS because the conditions of the business support finance or job retention finance prevented it, or were unclear whether that was allowed. Those highly trained and experienced clinicians would be unlikely to be used in a covid ward, but they could have contributed to taking some of the strain somewhere else in the NHS, instead of sitting at home.
Likewise, the means of production of any possible vaccine and protective equipment was left out of the equation. I find it hard to believe that the drafters did not offer those options, and an examination of the measures that Ministers refused must form part of the inquiry into the Government’s handling of the pandemic. Another vital part of it must be the contracts that were handed out without tendering. There is not a single half-sensible person in this Chamber who will think that the Government should have conducted full tendering for the provision of PPE and other supplies during this time, but some due diligence should be expected.
I have been asking parliamentary questions about the contracts and been told by the Department of Health and Social Care that it had no previous relationship with a load of the companies that had been contracted to supply goods and services. Take, for example, Medpro, a company that was only incorporated on 12 May, but which took a £122 million contract for supplying PPE to the Department on 25 June. That was not a bad first six weeks in business for the company, but how did the Government make sure that it could fulfil the contract? What about Clandeboye Agencies, with a £14 million contract to supply PPE gowns awarded without competition in April and one for £93 million in May? As fine a company as it might be, it is a confectionary wholesaler. Why did Ministers think it was appropriate to offer it a contract to provide PPE for frontline staff?
Santander’s website currently carries a boast that it got more than 40 businesses into the business of supplying PPE to the NHS—businesses fast-tracked on to the system on the word of a banker. We have barely scratched the surface of the contracts, but it is already clear that there was no control over the awarding of these contracts. The opportunity was there for the Government to take  control of the means of supply by writing it into the Coronavirus Act 2020, but they chose not to do so. Ministers chose instead to fling billions of pounds at anyone who would promise to hand over anything approximating protective equipment. Lives may have been put at risk—the lives of healthcare workers—and that needs to be examined properly and independently of Government.

Tom Hunt: It is quite clear that the Prime Minister has really agonised over this decision. Ultimately, that decision falls to him and it is an enormous burden. I am glad we have a Prime Minister who is alive to the real need to balance protecting lives with protecting livelihoods and our liberties. He has tried his very best to do that. I do think the Government should look at religious services. I have already been contacted by a number of constituents and, for them, particularly during this very difficult time, the nourishment they get from attending religious service is incredibly important. So I support the comments that the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) made on that.
We are very fortunate in Ipswich to have a great football team in Ipswich Town football club, who are on the way to being promoted back to the championship this year. I make no apology for meeting with the managing director of Ipswich Town last month when covid rates were only 18 out of 100,000 and for supporting the club’s call to try to get a very small number of fans safely back to the ground. Clearly, that is no longer going to be possible in the short term, so I would like the Government—I met the English Football League with other colleagues on Friday—to support the kind of package of support that may be necessary, but it is absolutely important that we are all aware of the pivotal role that many football clubs play within our communities. Ipswich Town football club is woven into the DNA of the people of Ipswich. Every other door has an Ipswich Town crest. The thought of anything serious happening to our club does not even bear thinking about, and that is not to mention the fantastic work that Ipswich Town football club does in the community through its community foundation. Once those services are lost, it is hard to build them up again.
Quickly on test and trace, I sympathise with the comments made by my right hon. Friend the Member for South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt) earlier with regard to compliance being only around 20%. As somebody who recently had to self-isolate—I was contacted by Test and Trace and self-isolated for 11 days—it is an incredibly tough ask for some people, not just financially, but mentally. If someone is in accommodation or a property without a garden or a balcony, it is a huge ask of that individual. If it is the case that compliance is very low, perhaps that is an area where we could be pragmatic and look at reducing the requirement to seven days. Better to get high compliance for seven days than low for 14 days.
It is difficult for some of my constituents to understand and comprehend a second national lockdown. We still have rates that are significantly below the national average, though going up. Currently we have no one in intensive care in Ipswich Hospital, although I appreciate that is likely to change. It is important we think about protecting the lives of constituents, but I am reassured  by the Prime Minister’s determination and promise that this will end on 2 December. It cannot happen again. This must be the last one because I also think about the 18-year-old I spoke to a few months ago, who is working every hour God sends in a bar to provide for his three-month-old girl. He said, “I don’t want to be on benefits. I want to work and I am terrified of a second lockdown.” Yes, I think about protecting the lives of my constituents, but I also think about that young man, who I have not spoken to since. We need to think about protecting lives, livelihoods and liberties, and they are not disconnected. They are profoundly connected, so I will be continuing over the next couple of days to look at the data and reflect upon all the information that has been put in front of us.

Ian Paisley Jnr: Today, my mother celebrated her 89th birthday. [Hon. Members: “Hear, hear.”] Thank you. She is well supported, like many octogenarians in Northern Ireland, in a social bubble where my sister looks after her extremely well, she has frequent visits from people who are socially distanced from her, great interaction with her grandchildren and her great-grandchildren and she enjoys the fullness of life. But her experience is very unlike that of millions of old-age pensioners across the whole of the United Kingdom. Tonight, 2.5 million pensioners are living in complete isolation and loneliness across many of our constituencies, and they have no one to turn to. Those pensioners are frightened to their wits’ end about some of the messaging that they see on their television screens. They probably believe the words of that elderly singer and songwriter from Belfast, Van Morrison, who has said that for some people:
“Optics are more important than ‘science’”.
Many of those elderly people who have a strong faith are now being told that they cannot go to their places of worship here in Great Britain. I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) that there should be a national day of prayer on which the community comes together and our great church buildings sound out praises and prayers to our Almighty God in a way that puts Him first in our nation for the first time in a long time.
Many people in our care homes do not know whether they will be entitled to a visit. I understand that the health service was looking at a pilot scheme to open up care homes to more visits, but many care home practitioners quite correctly tell me that it is because they have closed themselves to visits that the people living in those care homes have been saved from the ravages of coronavirus. We have to get a balance that also works for the practitioners in our care homes. In Northern Ireland, 80% of those who have succumbed to coronavirus deaths are octogenarians, so it is little wonder that those people live in fear. We have to start to address their concerns adequately and properly.
I said in an earlier intervention that we applaud our health workers. We have seen a lot of people out there clapping them, but many nurses tell me—I have to declare an interest: my daughter is a nurse—that they feel they are being slapped in the face, not clapped on the back, when we look at their pay cheque at the end of   the month for the work that they have to do. Student nurses regularly ask me whether they will be paid through this period of crisis. We have to ensure that we really start to see some progress with regards to nurses’ pay.
Let us look at what is going to happen today. By the time the curtain comes down this evening, 600 people across the United Kingdom will have died of cancer, more than 500 will have died of heart disease and 20 people have taken their own life through the misery of suicide. They are practically forgotten in the panic of the coronavirus. The figures tell us something very different from what we are being told by some of the leading practitioners. Respiratory diseases killed 3.9 million people worldwide in 2017. In 2020, 1 million people have succumbed to coronavirus. We must start to address this issue properly and adequately.

Sir David Amess: Like most other people, I was absolutely horrified when a lockdown was called at the weekend. There I was at mass on Sunday, and with no warning at all the priest called me to the altar to present me with a giant poppy that had been made by the children. He then asked me to give the congregation a message of hope, and I did my best. The country needs hope, and the world needs hope. I would describe the announcement on Saturday as absolutely shambolic. We cannot keep the nation waiting for  such an important announcement, and, whatever the circumstances, that must never ever happen again.
I was here when we gave power to the devolved nations, and to see the four parts of the United Kingdom pulling in different directions without one message is shameful and childish. That should not happen again. Of course I understand that we are following the advice of the scientists, but it is the politicians who decide. I want much more clarity on the overall objective and strategy. As many others have mentioned, care homes seemed to be sacrificed the last time we were in lockdown. Their residents are on very limited time, and we must ensure that full visiting rights are given to their relatives.
I am very glad that the schools are not now locking down, and I do hope that we will do our best to protect vulnerable children. With hope, our churches most certainly should stay open. The Catholic archbishops have called for the publication of the evidence behind the ban; I urge the Government to publish it.
Many of our local businesses have been suffering during these tough times and want more help. They have already had the summer wiped out, and now they will have Christmas wiped out. MPs need a hotline so that we can get answers quickly. For instance, the Palace theatre in Southend is suffering and I want it to have more help. Those businesses that operate from home or that visit homes, such as beauty therapists, hairdressers and cleaners, have got everything sorted and will now have to suspend their work again.
So many hon. Members have mentioned sport. We have had very nice emails from the golfing community, gyms and others; I do think we should do more to keep sporting activities going.
During a Westminster Hall debate last month, I and others highlighted the fact that covid-19 has had a disproportionate impact on people with physical and  learning difficulties. We need to make sure that they are properly supported during this second lockdown. As the chairman of the all-party parliamentary group on maternity, I believe that it is essential that women are given the right support during and after the birth.
Retail outlets have been working tirelessly since June to reopen in a covid-secure way, and we are now asking that they close their doors once again. There has been some confusion about what is classed as non-essential retail, so I urge the Government to produce a full and comprehensive list of shops and businesses that can remain open.
Not surprisingly, we are being inundated with emails from constituents telling us that we should not vote for another lockdown. The British public have been extremely patient and forbearing, and most people have accepted the guidelines until now. There needs to be a coherent strategy for a return to normality—not the new normal, but the normality of pre-lockdown Britain. The country, and particularly the economy, cannot exist in a state of suspended animation for much longer without long-term real damage.

Rushanara Ali: The coronavirus pandemic has left millions of people up and down the country with an uncertain future, struggling to make ends meet. This health crisis has robbed us of people we love, destroyed livelihoods and shaken the foundations of our communities to their core. More than ever, the pandemic has laid bare the deep inequalities in our society and shown the huge gaps in our healthcare and social welfare system after a decade of Conservative austerity. We need to protect our public services and support our communities and our economy through this crisis.
The Government have completely mishandled this crisis. The UK now ranks as the nation in Europe worst hit by fatalities, with a death toll passing 60,000. Over the summer, after the initial wave, the Government had time to get their act together, get a grip on testing and tracing, and get a grip on the virus. Instead, we have seen incompetence and failure at every turn. Their incompetence knows no bounds. We have had PPE shortages for our NHS and social care workers; delays in testing, with more lives thereby put at risk; and chaos for pupils and students in the exams and universities fiasco in September and October. To top it all off, the Government’s own eat out to help out scheme is likely to have spurred a spike in covid cases, according to the Prime Minister himself.
The Government’s dithering and delay over this second lockdown has wasted valuable time. They were too late to bring in the first lockdown, which cost lives and livelihoods, and this delay has once again cost lives and livelihoods. They failed to listen to the Opposition about a circuit breaker, which means that this lockdown will now be even longer, with even more detrimental effects on people’s lives, more deaths, worse economic outcomes and more damage to our economy.
The warnings were there. The information was there from the scientific advisers. Ministers and the Prime Minister kept saying, “We are guided by the science.” Far from it. The evidence is very clear now.

Matt Western: My hon. Friend is generous in giving way and is making such important points. Does she agree that the immediacy —the urgency—that has been lacking in this country was evidenced in countries such as Australia and New Zealand? They got on top of it really quickly and acted hard and fast, which is why Australia had zero cases over the weekend.

Rushanara Ali: I could not agree more with my hon. Friend. Our Government could have learned from many other countries and got a grip on contact tracing and testing. Instead, what we have seen is chaos—false promises, over-promising and under-delivering. That has damaged public confidence. The public confidence that we all worked to build, across party, at the beginning of the crisis during the first wave, has been squandered by the failures of this Government.
There are now four times as many people catching covid than anticipated. The delay in introducing restrictions has already cost lives in constituencies such as mine, and we are already seeing a high prevalence of death rates among those from black and minority ethnic communities and those from poorer backgrounds—the patterns are very similar to what happened before. This time the Government know where the problems are, and their failure is completely unacceptable and inexcusable.
Given the scientific advisers’ own projections in the graphs that they showed the country last week, we are expecting even greater human cost and even more lives being lost because of the delay and the failures to act. That is why it is an absolute scandal that the Government have spent £12 billion on a private contractor, Serco. They call it “the NHS app”, but they did not use the public sector. They should have formed a proper alliance between the public and private sectors—nobody is saying that it should be one or the other. We should be pragmatic, but we should get value for money.
It seems that organisations and companies that have shown complete incompetence are being rewarded with contracts. It seems as if there is a contracts programme for Conservative party donors. I raised the issue of the PPE contracts with the Prime Minister, and he has still failed to answer—it has been weeks now. There have been £1 billion of contracts without proper due diligence.
The rate of death among certain communities was very high, and it continues to be in this crisis. The Government also need to act now to provide support to the 3 million who were excluded during the first crisis and continue to get very little support as we head towards to the lockdown. They are being left out. When children go hungry in our constituencies and public money is being wasted on some contracts on which contractors are failing to deliver, the Government need to act to ensure that we get value for taxpayers’ money.
Finally, local authorities and local public services desperately need help if they are to provide support to get the contract tracing done and get a grip on the virus. I call on the Government to work with them, support them and provide the funding that they need to protect us all.

Bob Seely: I would like to talk briefly in the time I have about the need for strategy, the need to use science transparently and the balance of   risk. Sadly, this lockdown is by definition a failure of policy because back in the first lockdown we were promised “never again”, but here we are.
We have draconian measures now while we wait for the cavalry in the form of a vaccine. But this is not a strategy, but the absence of one. May I now suggest that we need a strategy for living with the virus and giving people a sense of optimism grounded in a common-sense approach and a sense of proportion so that, rather than drifting in and out of lockdown and of restrictions, we give people a medium and long-term sense of what the future is likely to hold? A vaccine may not be a silver bullet. I would suggest “Keep calm and carry on” as a fairly commonsensical approach.
I am not quite sure about what the aims are. Are they to save life regardless? At the moment, we are sacrificing the lives of the young. Are the aims to save quality-adjusted life years? The Government’s own report from July said that the health impacts of the two-month lockdown were greater than those of direct covid deaths. Alternatively, are the aims to prioritise overall health outcomes, as Dr Raghib Ali suggests?
I would like very much for the Government to do more to present data in a balanced way and give significantly greater context than has otherwise been given. We need fatality rates and not just infection rates. Estimates of fatality started at 0.9% and have gone down since then. The latest evidence that we have from Stanford University, in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization, based on 61 studies from around the world, showed a fatality rate of 0.27%—about three or four times worse than an average winter flu year. So as Professor Robert Dingwall says, despite all the hysteria, this is not a modern plague.
We also need to understand the balance of risk of covid with many other risks, including the loss of education for children, which is an appalling long-term consequence; the profound damage to mental health; the effect on our ability to live socially and to be human; the loss of liberty; the loss of freedom; the collapse in employment; the surge in unemployment; the increase in poverty, and the potential deaths that we know that will cause in future; and the collapse of Government finances. I know that everyone making these decisions that will devastate the lives of others is in pretty much secure jobs. Not one of us here is facing the same stress as the freelancers, the business people, the artists, the musicians, and the pub and restaurant owners. I have many of those folks in the Isle of Wight, whose lives are now on hold and whose ability to earn a living has been shattered despite the tiny risks to many of them.
I have to say that the poster of the ballerina being told to retrain as a cyber-expert was one of the most offensive things I have seen in years from Government. Someone strives for years, they have a goal and a passion, but some bureaucrat on a fat pension is going to shut down their life. I think it is right that so many people were angry about that, and I do feel that Government are obsessing about the risks of covid but ignoring many of the other risks that we have to balance with that. Professor Sikora has said:
“The full consequences of lockdowns haven’t been properly considered by those who claim to have the answers. If a wider range of voices had been considered from the start, perhaps we wouldn’t be in the utter mess we’re in.”
I am sorry to have to quote that, but I do think it is a valuable quote to have.

Layla Moran: I feel a bit queasy after the speech by the hon. Member for Isle of Wight (Bob Seely), not because of what he said but because of the microphones—

Eleanor Laing: Order. I thank the hon. Lady for mentioning it, and I apologise on behalf of the House to the hon. Gentleman who has just spoken. There seemed to be a little bit of disruption and I could not work out what it was, because I could hear something wrong, but other people could not. There is something wrong in the sound system, and I simply apologise to the hon. Gentleman, and we hope that it will be fixed.

Layla Moran: Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker.
I want first to tell the story of what has happened in Oxfordshire over the past couple of weeks. I want to put on record my thanks to the Minister for spending time with me and the hon. Member for Oxford East (Anneliese Dodds) earlier this week, but we were in a strange situation where, as a county, we were raring to go into tier 2. We had been looking at the data and, particularly, listening to the director of public health, but not just to him. All the councils were on board, as were the Oxfordshire Association of Care Providers, the police, both universities and, critically, the local enterprise partnership—all pulling in the same direction, all saying, “We are deeply concerned about the way that the virus is now being transmitted in wider communities. It is now leaking into the 60-plus bracket, and we are worried about overwhelming our local NHS.” So we asked gold command to give us a tier 2 status. Two weeks ago, we were saddened that that was not allowed, and then last week we found out that only Oxford city was going to go into tier 2 and the rest of the county was not, against what was very much a cross-party view, except for those Conservative Members in this House who did not want that to happen.
I have yet to get to the bottom of exactly why that happened. The Minister said that she would go away and look at it: I appreciate that events have overtaken us since then, but at some point we will get through this phase. I have heard the Secretary of State say many times that he believes in the tier system. If he does, it has failed us. We are in the situation we are in now because it has failed us and because test, trace and isolate—particularly the “isolate” bit—is not working.
I believe that people will adhere to this lockdown. They are annoyed and upset—I am sure that many Members’ inboxes are full of people expressing their concern—but they will do it. However, I do not believe they will do it again. This is two strikes, and on a third strike the Government will have a real problem on their hands in terms of the public adhering to a lockdown again. That brings us to where I think we need to be focusing next, which is on an exit strategy. There are many of us across the House who are concerned by this, because an exit strategy is not just a need to decrease R below 1. Yes, we know that that is the start, but what is concerning is that we have done that once before and it has not worked. The tier system has not worked. We have not got on top of this.
What I want to propose in an elevator pitch today is what I, others across this House and Members from the other place have come up with as an exit strategy, which   involves three stages. The first has the advantage of being exactly where the Government are now, which is that we bring R below 1. The second stage is critical and it does not involve tiers. It is a national approach that involves, first of all, getting those cases low enough so that TTI works properly, and quantifying what that is. The other part of it is new. It is making use of something that we have that other countries in Europe do not have, which is our unique geography. We start to fight this virus at our borders by testing and quarantining people who are coming in and out. The countries that are beating the virus are doing exactly that—places such as Taiwan and New Zealand. We have to change the approach—if we do not do so then we will keep doing the same thing over and again—and wait to the point of elimination when, hopefully, therapeutics and a vaccine will come to save us. Until we get to that point, I urge the Government to think through their approach again.

Miriam Cates: I do not envy my Government colleagues who have had to make such difficult decisions over the past few months. Although the first lockdown was drastic, it was justified by our lack of knowledge of the disease, how it spreads and whom it affects. I commend the Government for making rapid, bold decisions, and we must not forget just how much was achieved in such a short space of time: expansion of testing capacity, the building of the Nightingale hospitals, the logistical achievement of delivering PPE to thousands of new locations and, of course, huge packages of financial support. Those are significant successes, and I take issue with those who fill the airwaves with a constant stream of negativity and criticism. No new challenge is met without bumps in the road and to overcome them, we must observe, reflect, change, adapt and persevere. That is what this Government have done. None the less, there is no doubt that, although the first lockdown slowed the spread of the virus, it caused huge damage to society. That is why I so deeply regret that we must face such measures again, although from the data presented by my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister, I do see that we must act.
I want to make three requests of my colleagues in Government for whom, as I have said, I do have the greatest of respect and admiration. First, I ask that we keep schools open in all circumstances. Unlike in March, we now know that covid presents almost no danger to children, but missing out on education is dangerous. Not only have children fallen behind alarmingly, but the social and developmental costs to our children are huge.
Secondly, I urge the Government to use this second lockdown to make plans and preparations to avoid subsequent lockdowns, whether that is further expansion of the NHS, additional plans for shielding, or further testing. We must make sure that we never have to take this action again.
Lastly, I ask that we begin a national conversation about our future response to the pandemic that is based not just on data, evidence or science, important though those things are, but on morality and values. We have to face the fact that this virus may be circulating for years to come, that we may never find an effective vaccine and that testing may never control the spread. In those circumstances, how will we respond? This disease primarily affects older people, yet young people will bear the  economic cost, perhaps for their whole working lives. Right now, we must protect the NHS and save lives, but, in the context of existing generational inequality, we must ask: is this morally acceptable in the long-term? More than half a million people die each and every year in the UK. The majority of people who have died this year have not died from covid, but they have spent their final year separated from friends and family, unable to do what they love, and watching their loved ones lose jobs, businesses and opportunities. In the short term, that has been necessary, but for how much longer is it morally justifiable?
Since the beginning of human history, gathering together has been essential for our wellbeing. In every religion and culture, festivals, meetings and family relationships are central to tradition, because our relationships define us and outside of relationships we cannot flourish. It is not good for man to be alone. Loneliness kills, yet right now, many of us are alone. For how long is that morally acceptable? If this lockdown and our endeavours do not reduce the spread of the virus enough to permanently lift these restrictions, we must seek a moral consensus on the way forward, not just a scientific one. As I have said, I do not envy those with such a heavy responsibility at this time and the nation owes them a huge debt of gratitude, but let us use this time to keep schools open, prepare ourselves further and find a moral consensus for the way ahead.

Luke Evans: This debate serves as a good place to set the scene for 48 hours’ time. I agree with my right hon. Friend the Member for Forest of Dean (Mr Harper) that a large number of people will want to speak in that debate and consideration should be given to increasing its length.
In 48 hours’ time, we will be looking at measures to protect the NHS—to stop it being overburdened, to protect the workforce, to protect the most vulnerable, and to try to help get through non-covid and covid problems. In 48 hours’ time, we will be voting on the economic impact, trying to mitigate the measures we are putting in place, trying to maintain businesses and to support jobs, trying to create covid-secure measures, and discussing the impact on the finances of this country for our children and our children’s children. In 48 hours’ time, there will be a vote, and every Member will have to consider the impact of what that means.
I want to spend the few minutes I have talking about the pragmatic side before we get to the debate on Wednesday, which I hope to speak in. I think it was Lincoln who said, “Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four hours sharpening the axe.” That is what I want the Government to do in the next 48 hours. The one benefit we have is that we have learned from last time’s lockdown. We know what it looked like. People know what it looked like. This House knows what it looked like. Therefore, we can use these 48 hours to pull the guidance together to deal with the concerns, iron out the anomalies—for example, on garden centres—and explain the differences: that schools are now open, that we now have bubbles, and that people now understand that they should get a test. This is something we have control over as the Government—the communication of how we put that message out. We have 48 hours to get that right.
The concerns from Bosworth in my email inbox today are many and varied, from non-covid work, health work and mental health, to golf and fishing, to the ability to take away beer or go to the gym and faith meetings. The Minister and the Secretary of State were kind enough to be at my meeting on Sunday to hear these questions from many MPs. Indeed, we have heard them raised yet again tonight. The civil service is looking at how to put this all in place. I urge the Government to hear those messages, to learn from what we have seen before, and, even better, to put it all together in a document that compares what we had before with what we are having in future so that everyone, from MPs in this House to the general public, can see what has changed and what stays the same. We have 48 hours to sharpen the guidance ready for Wednesday. I hope that on Wednesday, in doing that, we can cut down covid.

Jack Brereton: Like a lot of Members, I am delivering a speech tonight that is not quite what I would have imagined last week. I know that many people in Stoke-on-Trent South will be apprehensive about further lockdowns. People have already been through so much and it has had such an impact on mental health.
The choices we face are almost impossible to contemplate—either to put our economy, jobs and livelihoods on hold or to risk overwhelming our NHS and costing potentially thousands of lives. The tier 2 restrictions that Stoke-on-Trent was already under are now going to be tighter still. The daily case numbers in Stoke-on-Trent are in three figures, and Royal Stoke University Hospital is almost entirely full. The number of covid patients is higher now than at the first peak. We have seen locally just how fast this virus can spread, more than doubling in a week. Thankfully, these figures have started to improve, and I hope that this slowing of the rate continues, thanks to people’s efforts locally.
I thank all our health professionals who have done and continue to do so much to care for those who have fallen victim to covid. All our NHS and care staff—our key worker heroes—have our enduring gratitude. We all need to support them now by following these measures, continuing to use our health services when we need them, and making sure that we access the right services at the right time.
Those in education—teachers, lecturers and classroom assistants—also deserve huge thanks for all their work. I visited Ormiston Meridian Academy in Meir recently, and when speaking to young people there, I was struck by the fact that they urged me to do everything possible to keep schools fully open. Nothing can replace our children being in school.
We must all look to the future in hope and confidence that we can defeat this virus. We have already seen remarkable progress in treatments and the development of a vaccine. Equally, getting the testing infrastructure right is absolutely key. We have heard from a number of colleagues about the contact tracing system and how that needs to improve further. I have also had issues raised by constituents in my area about accessing the £500, because of problems with the app system releasing an ID. It is important that those problems are addressed.
I want to commend the work of the Secretary of State and the Department on testing. Having the highest testing capacity in the whole of Europe is an absolutely massive feat. The additional national testing facilities opened recently at Fenton Manor in my constituency are very welcome. This is a very promising development, and more rapid testing in particular is a game changer, if we can get it right. This can be the basis for reducing restrictions on our everyday lives.
I know many people across Stoke-on-Trent South and Stoke on Trent as a whole will be particularly concerned about the impact on their businesses, jobs and livelihoods. The proposed continuation of the furlough scheme is certainly welcome and necessary, as is the direction to work from home if people can, while being very clear that manufacturing and construction industries—there are many such industries in Stoke-on-Trent—can continue to open.
I also welcome the doubling of support for the self-employed, and the grants that will be available to those industries most affected. I would ask that consideration is given to those manufacturing industries that depend on hospitality and retail, such as ceramics. Drawing the line in the right place is not going to be easy for any Government, but I hope that the Government will continue to engage to ensure that support is focused on the sectors most impacted.
It is the everyday level that will continue to control the spread while we wait for the extraordinary developments of science to enable us to ease the restrictions. For our market traders, cafés, restaurant workers and retailers not dealing in goods covered by the list of essential items, I cannot emphasise enough the urgency of returning to the tiers as soon as it is safe to do so.

Sara Britcliffe: I absolutely agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Bosworth (Dr Evans) that we need to see the differences between the previous lockdown and this one. That needs to be on a graph with which we can all explain why this is happening.
After spending most of this weekend in briefings about the data and seeing the prevalence of this virus, I understand that the decision taken by the Prime Minister and the Government will not have been an easy one. This is a constant struggle to protect lives and livelihoods. I agree with the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) about the need for our NHS to be functioning for normal business. That is a key point. The prospect of our NHS becoming overwhelmed due to this virus and reaching a point where it is no longer there for everybody who needs it will have been very worrying for many.
I have spoken to my local authorities and public health officials, and it is worrying to see the effect that this is having on our local trusts. They are doing everything they can at the moment to continue with elective surgeries, cancer screening, heart surgeries and other life-saving treatments, while also treating those with covid. The fact that these procedures are at risk without our taking action and getting the virus under control is the stark reality we face.
Hyndburn and Haslingden has faced restrictions for such a long time now, and our local economy has suffered. Businesses are struggling, people are suffering with their mental health, tensions are very high and people are missing their loved ones. I know that my community will continue to pull together, but it is important that we have both financial support and emotional support in place for people. I very much welcome the announcement for the self-employed by the Chancellor, and I know it will come as a relief to many.
I want to take this opportunity to make a few points that have been raised with me. I did manage to ask the Prime Minister about some other issues this afternoon, such as gyms and places of worship, but may I press the point that, as we move back to the regional approach, priority should be given to finding a safe approach to how people may see their loved ones in care homes? In constituencies such as mine, some have not been able to do so since March.
Will serious consideration be given to how those areas, such as my constituency, that have faced restrictions for longer than most will not just be put straight back into tier 3, and will we look at ploughing support into these areas so they do not face the prospect of very strong restrictions?
Another issue that has been raised is those having to self-isolate due to childcare who have not been contacted by Test and Trace, as my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent South (Jack Brereton) highlighted. Can the Government look at how such people can be supported, perhaps through the discretionary part of the funding?
Another point was raised in conversation with my constituent, Jamie McNally, earlier today. He is the owner of Hoyle Bottom Spirits and maker of our very own Tinker Brook gin. Local craft beer bar Tap Select is concerned that it is unable to sell takeaway beers. That was done in March, so why can it not be done now?
All the options are extremely difficult, as will be the decision on further restrictions. I know that everybody making those decisions is under extreme pressure.

Andrew Bowie: It is an absolute pleasure to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Hyndburn (Sara Britcliffe), who made an excellent speech. I have risen before to express my support for the Government and the incredibly difficult decisions they are taking to protect the NHS and save lives. They do so balancing all the risks and effects on our country, the economy and people’s livelihoods, but with the best of intentions—that we will bounce back quicker if we take steps now to ensure that the NHS is able to function.
I will focus mainly on the economic support that the Government have been providing to businesses. Nobody could scoff at the economic support that the UK Government have provided to support businesses in Scotland—well, perhaps the hon. Member for Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Gavin Newlands) could, but nobody in their right mind. The Conservative Government are spending an estimated £16 billion to support Scotland through this epidemic, including £7 billion extra directly for the Scottish Government to spend on top of the  usual Barnett funding. Some 779,500 jobs were protected by the job retention scheme and 79,000 businesses benefited from UK Government loans worth up to £2.9 billion. The VAT cut is supporting 150,000 businesses and 2.4 million jobs in Scotland, and benefiting consumers everywhere. Eat Out to Help Out discounted more than 6 million meals in Scotland, which supported restaurateurs and other hospitality businesses.
That is all good stuff, but I want to make a special plea to the Governments here and in Edinburgh for part of the hospitality sector that feels that it has been left behind. My constituency, as hon. Members can imagine, is the most beautiful constituency in the country. It is home to the castle trail, Royal Deeside, Strathdon, the Cairngorm mountains and the Howe of the Mearns. Of course, it is also home to the global subsea industry on the edge of the energy capital of Europe in Aberdeen.
Weddings, events and conferences are big business. The wedding industry alone in my constituency makes about £15 million a year. Venues have to be maintained whether anyone is there or not. Many started with a full year this year, but all events have been written off. The companies that organise such events are really suffering. When we speak of an events company suffering or a wedding being postponed, it is not just the wedding organiser or the conference organiser—the headline company—that suffers, but a long list of suppliers and contractors who work for and with them, such as lighting specialists, sound engineers, musicians, caterers, photographers, flower arrangers and private vehicle hire to mention but a few.
I met representatives of the wedding and events industry in my constituency last week, and apparently it takes up to about 15 to 20 contractors to pull the average wedding together, which is 15 to 20 cottage industries affected when we go into lockdown. They are viable businesses. Although I appreciate the Government’s help so far, and indeed, on behalf of all my constituents and businesses that have received it, thank them for it, I ask the Governments here and in Edinburgh to remember the forgotten people of the hospitality sector as we move through winter. For them, it will be the third winter this year.
The Government are taking the correct steps to protect the NHS and save lives. As I said, it is a difficult situation, but as we sit here in November, there is no certainty for the wedding and events sector about when it will be able to return to work and when people will be able to gather in numbers for events and conferences again. I ask the Government and the Treasury, when they are designing packages of support for the hospitality and events sector, as they did so well for those involved in frontline hospitality and catering, such as restaurateurs, hoteliers and publicans, to remember this sector, which is vital for parts of the country, as we move forward. I ask them to remember and provide for it.

Robbie Moore: It goes against every bone in the body to impose restrictions on livelihoods, constrain our freedoms, order businesses to close and tell people to stay at home and that they cannot see their loved ones. Of course, the effects can be hugely damaging for our local economies and have a detrimental impact on people’s mental health and wellbeing.
Having spent the whole of last weekend engaging with many of my constituents from across Keighley and Ilkley, I learned that many share my views. Today, the Bradford district was due to move to tier 3, but in the light of the new national restrictions to be imposed from Thursday those changes have been cancelled. There is no doubt that this has been extremely confusing for many across Keighley and Ilkley. Businesses that were told to stay open on Friday through tier 3 are now being told to close, and I have to say that I simply do not understand the logic for some of the guidance, and perhaps the Minister will be kind enough to address those in her closing remarks.
Gyms—such as High Energy and NRGym in Keighley, which I visited recently—are some of the safest places for individuals to go, yet they are now being asked to close. Gyms are not only good for exercise; they are great for mental health and wellbeing. We are also telling pubs that they have to close, but that they can provide food takeaways yet not sell beers as takeaways, while supermarkets are still permitted to do so. This will impact not only the likes of Timothy Taylor’s and Ilkley Brewery in my constituency, but our local pubs like the Craven Heifer in Addingham, whose landlord, Gavin Patterson, I spoke with this morning. It is also very frustrating for the hair and beauty sector, which I know has gone above and beyond, at cost, to implement safe measures, and many businesses from this sector, including Equilibrium based in Silsden and the Doll House beauty boutique based in Keighley, have contacted me on this.
I totally appreciate that we have to face the fact that cases of coronavirus have been growing rapidly and that scientific modelling suggests that unless further action is taken now to bring down the R rate we could see covid deaths in even greater numbers than in spring, and that horrifies me. Directly protecting lives and livelihoods is, of course, key, but the impact on our hospital capacity must be at the forefront of our minds. As of last weekend, in-patient beds in my hospital, the Airedale, are now at capacity. That is a very serious situation. The hospital has therefore taken the decision to postpone elective surgery that needs overnight stay for at least two weeks. For now, urgent and emergency cases and cancer surgery will continue at least. The blunt truth is that our hospitals becoming overwhelmed is a horrifying thought. More patients could die not just from covid but from other illnesses as well.
These are not restrictions that I want to support, but there are no other good options, so I will, very reluctantly, be supporting the Government. In lockdown in spring this year, our communities from across Keighley and Ilkley came together to help others in our hour of need, including the Keighley hub, the Silsden emergency planning group, the Hainworth Wood community centre, the Ilkley coronavirus response group and many more. I know that these national restrictions are going to be tough, and in implementing them, we must continue to support our businesses, particularly small and medium- sized businesses.

Aaron Bell: It is a pleasure to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Keighley (Robbie Moore); indeed, many of my hon. Friends have made fine speeches.
Like my constituency neighbour, my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent South (Jack Brereton), I had a different speech in mind today. Newcastle-under-Lyme was put into tier 2 on Saturday, but that is not going to be for very long; we are facing a much darker future from Thursday. Like my hon. Friend the Member for Penistone and Stocksbridge (Miriam Cates), I do not envy the Secretary of State, the Prime Minister or anyone who is making these decisions; they are very serious decisions indeed, and they must weigh very heavily on people’s shoulders.
The Government have set out the case for a national lockdown, and in that, NHS capacity is key. I obviously completely agree that this should be the overriding objective of our policies and, as I said in my intervention on the Secretary of State earlier, this now needs to become the focus of our daily data, rather than cases and tests—although I am very pleased we have now got capacity for over half a million tests. We need to explain to people what is going on in our hospitals—what is happening day by day, what pressure they are coming under.
I am keen to interrogate the data and the models. In particular, I have concerns about some of the data we have been shown, including what we saw on our television screens on Saturday. The Cambridge/PHE model—the scariest line on the graph presented—implied that there would be more than 1,000 deaths a day by yesterday, which is bizarre, because there were not. The reasonable worst-case scenario, which has been leaked, apparently has an “odd plateau” in October—not my words, but those of David Spiegelhalter, who has done such a good job of communicating scientific uncertainty and statistical uncertainty. Why is there a plateau? On 21 September, SAGE suggested that there would be 3,000 hospital admissions a day by the end of October. The figure reported on 28 October was 1,442, and yet we are supposed to be above the reasonable worst-case scenario. Either somebody does not understand what “reasonable” means, or they do not understand what “worst-case” means.
In the light of all that, I am extraordinarily grateful that Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty have agreed to come to the Science and Technology Committee tomorrow at very short notice. They are both incredibly fine public servants. They have been very keen to present to all the Select Committees throughout this time, and I pay tribute to them.
No Conservative wants to restrict free enterprise. No Conservative wants to curtail individual liberties, and no Conservative would ever want to put people at greater risk from other illnesses, such as cancer, heart disease or mental health concerns. It goes against all my instincts to do so, but if the case is made that that is the right thing to do, I will, with a heavy heart, have to vote for it.
I think it is unlikely that we will be in the position we hope to be in on 2 December, and I say that about not only the UK but all the countries of western Europe. Germany, France, Belgium and Italy are all entering lockdown. It seems unlikely that we will get the R and the overall rate down to such a level that it is reasonable to start taking the brakes off in what will be a colder, darker and traditionally more convivial month. I have  grave concerns about that. If it is the right strategy now, it may regrettably be the right strategy then, and we have to take that very seriously, so I will listen carefully to Vallance and Whitty tomorrow.
I share the disquiet of my right hon. Friend the Member for Forest of Dean (Mr Harper) that we  will have only 90 minutes to discuss the legislation on Wednesday, and it will be unamendable. There are reasonable amendments that the House might wish to make—for example, on golf. I understand the closure of clubhouses, but I find it bizarre that two people cannot walk around a golf course and take their exercise in that way. I also do not know why takeaway and delivery from pubs, and rural pubs in particular, was banned this time but not the first time. Ultimately, it is for the Government to propose and not for Parliament to micro-manage.
Finally, I pay tribute to everyone in Newcastle-under-Lyme, especially those on the frontline in the NHS, care homes and social care. We will get through this winter, however tough it is, and we will do that by looking after each other in every sense.

Andy Carter: Like my hon. Friend the Member for Newcastle-under-Lyme (Aaron Bell), I started to write my speech last week, and given the announcements over the weekend, I thought  I might need to redraft it. But having listened to this debate and to the statement from the Prime Minister, I have actually made very few changes.
As the final Back-Bench contributor to the debate, I want to talk about my local hospital. I know that the Minister for Patient Safety, Mental Health and Suicide Prevention has personal experience of Warrington Hospital—she started her career there as a trainee nurse, so she knows those wards better than any of us here. Warrington, alongside Liverpool, is at the forefront in dealing with the autumn surge. It is one of the busiest hospitals in the country with covid admissions. I want my colleagues in this House to know about the pressures that clinicians are facing today, tonight and tomorrow.
The medical staff and support staff in Warrington are straining every sinew to cope with the increase in covid-19 cases that they have seen in the last few weeks. In April, during the height of the first wave, the hospital had a peak of 121 covid patients. Today it has 149, and there are a further 23 patients awaiting test results in hospital. It is forecast to exceed 300 patients over the next three weeks. Given that hospitalisation often follows two weeks after infection, the changes being made from Thursday will probably have little impact on shifting the course of those numbers.
One of the senior clinicians at Warrington Hospital described to me earlier today the current situation. He said that it was a “winter crisis on steroids,” and we have not even got into winter yet. Critical care beds have already been escalated to 18, and there is an ability to extend further to 30, but doing that will have an impact on the hospital’s other work. It surprised me a little when he talked about the hospital’s other work. There are currently 183 other patients receiving care for urgent conditions such as cancer. The work of Warrington’s NHS remains at around 80% of normal workload.
The prevalence of the virus in Warrington is still increasing, and as the virus spreads through the community it also spreads into the healthcare workforce. Having sufficient nurses and doctors to treat not only someone suffering from covid-19, but somebody who has trauma from a car crash, or who has the frightening diagnosis of a tumour or who has just suffered a stroke is just as important. The benefit of having a national health service is that across a region where one hospital is busy, another can take up the strain and help out, but sadly, we are seeing pressures right across the region. There is little bed space in any of the hospitals in the north-west and there is a real challenge for doctors and nurses to staff those wards.
The next four weeks are an opportunity to address contact tracing across the UK before the surge we are seeing in Warrington extends further, and I welcome the support that has been given to local councils to drive efforts around local tracing. I can also understand why people working in contact tracing find it really difficult. I have been through the process of isolation. I have had the calls and I know how difficult it is to understand when you are talking to somebody in one town and you are in another.
Finally, I reiterate the point I made to the Prime Minister earlier today. The economic consequences of the lockdown will be very difficult, coming at such a crucial time ahead of Christmas when businesses make the revenue that they use to see them through the early part of next year. Protecting lives and livelihoods have to go hand in hand and I regret deeply that we are seeing another lockdown, but reluctantly, I feel that we do need this.

Rosena Allin-Khan: We have heard some superb speeches in this debate and a great deal of heartfelt contribution from all around the House. I always say that I believe that every single one of us came to this place to be a force for good. We all have unique challenges in our constituencies, but we strive to do the best that we can. Sadly, there are some clear patterns of failure that I need to address tonight—patterns of failure by this Government: a refusal to act, an inability to empathise and, crucially, the failure to learn.
The Government failed to get on top of this virus in the spring. They failed to act in time and by failing to learn from their earlier mistakes, they have again failed to get on top of the virus ahead of winter. In fact, on Saturday, the Minister claimed that only “a crystal ball” could have predicted the need for a second lockdown. Luckily, the Government do not need a crystal ball because they have experts, who, six weeks ago, highlighted the need for a short, sharp two-week circuit breaker—so yes, it was predicted. A crystal ball was not needed. However, this Government did not have the political will to act six weeks ago and refused to work with Opposition colleagues, instead deciding to use the health of the nation as a political football.
During the last Prime Minister’s questions, the Prime Minister stated that he did not believe a national circuit breaker was the right policy for the country. A couple of days prior to that, the Health Secretary stated that a more targeted approach would get a grip on the virus and that a national circuit breaker was
“not the policy of the Government”.—[Official Report, 19 October 2020; Vol. 682, c. 784.]
It was clear at the time that this was the wrong approach and was at odds with the scientific expert advice on offer.
The Prime Minister has now warned of deaths twice as high over winter as they were in spring—sobering indeed—yet six weeks ago, the chief scientific officer was warning of the worrying forecast of daily cases. Why, then, did the Government choose to rule out so steadfastly measures that would save lives? Can they not see the damage and miscommunication that this causes? People were laid off last week as businesses anticipated the end of the furlough scheme, only for it to be extended on Saturday night. What is the Government’s message to all those people who have just lost their jobs?
Without a functioning test, trace and isolate system in place, there can be no way out of this crisis. The Government have had seven months to get on top of testing, yet the covid app does not work for the hundreds of thousands of people in England and Wales whose phones are set to unsupported languages. For those people, the app simply shows a blank screen. That does not promote confidence among the British people that the Government can get on top of tracing, and Serco is still failing miserably at tracing contacts adequately. The Government have had seven months to correct the situation. Understandably, this epidemic is unprecedented and, understandably, there are things that could not have been foreseen, but the Government have had seven months to rectify the situation and should and could have done better.
The Government’s continued flip-flopping on scientific advice breeds uncertainty. We have heard in the Chamber tonight Members from all parties talk of community uncertainty and of businesses that do not know whether they will ever be able to survive again. People from the wedding sector, people who run small gyms and people who work on golf courses want answers. They are just good people, trying to earn a living and wanting some certainty.

Steven Baker: I do not know whether the hon. Lady has noticed, but scientific experts, even in the same field of epidemiology, quite often disagree profoundly. I wonder whether Labour has noticed that and what it plans to do about it. If the hon. Lady is looking for any ideas, I have tweeted out a summary of a book on the subject.

Rosena Allin-Khan: I thank the hon. Gentleman for his contribution and I congratulate him on his ability to tweet. I have a master’s in public health and am perfectly capable of understanding that the very eminent scientists who work as advisers to the Government are doing an incredible job. They were selected to work for the Government so that the Government could take their advice, and they have advised the Government that a two-week circuit breaker would have been beneficial, both to the economy and in respect of saving lives, had it been implemented weeks ago. I am pleased that the hon. Gentleman has the ability to tweet out information about a book; I will continue to read my books on epidemiology with great joy. [Interruption.] If he would like to intervene again, I shall take another intervention.

Steven Baker: The hon. Lady has done a masterful job of demonstrating mere politics, but has she engaged with the serious subject of experts disagreeing?

Rosena Allin-Khan: I have engaged with such serious subjects when undertaking all four of my science degrees.
Speculation that self-isolation could be reduced from 14 to seven days does nothing to clarify how people can keep their families safe. [Interruption.] I am enjoying hearing the chuntering; I would welcome anybody who wished to intervene on me because I am well up for it, as they say in Tooting. I do enjoy debates—in fact, I would welcome debate, because what always happens is that I make my comments from the Dispatch Box, sit down and listen to the Minister, for whom I have a great deal of respect, but then I have no ability to intervene, so bring it on.
The resilience that British people have shown over the past seven months has been remarkable. In the face of uncertainty and fear, our communities have come together to support one another time and again. Like everyone in the Chamber, I am so proud of all those who helped to deliver food and medicines to our most vulnerable at the height of the crisis, and I have been incredibly moved by all those businesses, struggling themselves, that provided free school meals locally when the Government failed to act. It touches me to witness the hope and humanity of our communities and of individuals such as Marcus Rashford, but it is shameful that that has been necessary as a result of this Government’s actions.
It breaks my heart that more children than ever will know the taste of hunger in 2020 and that they will feel the cold that comes from their parents being unable to pay the bills. The last Labour Government lifted more than 1 million children out of poverty. We need more action like that, not Conservative Members blaming chaotic parents for child hunger, alleging that free school meal vouchers go direct to crack dens and brothels, or spinning the narrative that it is the sole responsibility of local communities to ensure that no child goes hungry. Where is the compassion and humanity from the Government? I hope we do not have to continue asking ourselves that question throughout winter.
Certainly, across our communities, compassion and humanity are in no short supply among our frontline health and care staff—on that we can all agree. Those frontline staff have been placed in an impossible situation throughout the year. Will the Government commit to ensuring that those staff have adequate levels of PPE across the winter, and will they commit to frequent testing of our frontline staff, who put their lives on the line day in, day out? The impact of the neglect of our NHS staff is that almost 2 million days were lost to mental ill health during the first wave of the pandemic. I fear the effects of the second spike this winter. We can stand on our doorsteps and clap, but why can we not give them the support they truly deserve?
Will the Minister agree to meet to discuss our care for carers proposal to address the mental health needs of our 3 million health and care staff? Will the Minister agree to meet me to discuss the care for carers plan? Will the Minister agree to work cross-party together to support our frontline NHS and care workers?

Nadine Dorries: Will the hon. Lady give way?

Rosena Allin-Khan: Of course.

Nadine Dorries: Obviously, I cannot answer from a sedentary position. On the care package, the hon. Lady will need to meet another Minister, but I will take her request on. I am the Minister for mental health, not for care workers, but I will pass that on for her.

Rosena Allin-Khan: It is a package of mental healthcare for our frontline NHS and care workers, which I am sorry the Minister seems to have forgotten. I have raised it a number of times. Is she agreeing to meet me to discuss the care for carers mental health package for our frontline NHS and care staff?

Nadine Dorries: I will provide a detailed explanation of what we are doing for frontline workers in my own speech.

Rosena Allin-Khan: I take that as a no. I give the Minister the opportunity to give me a straight yes or no answer. Will she kindly agree to meet me to work cross-party together for the betterment of the mental health of our frontline NHS and care staff—yes or no?

Nadine Dorries: Madam Deputy Speaker, this is a rather unusual way of closing a debate. We have a very comprehensive package in place for key workers, which has been provided by the NHS, and I am happy to detail that when I give my closing speech.

Rosena Allin-Khan: I am very familiar with the detail, which the Minister uses every single time we have a debate, but I will take that as a hard no and continue with my speech.
For the mental health of people across the country—[Interruption.] The policy is very clear. The Minister is chuntering from a sedentary position; would she like to intervene?

Eleanor Laing: Order. [Interruption.] Yes, I appreciate what the hon. Lady is saying. I think this exchange has run its course, and I am sure that she is probably about to come to her conclusion.

Rosena Allin-Khan: Thank you. As I said, I take that as a hard no.
For the mental health of people across the country, the Government have to address questions that they were slow to answer in spring. For those who rely on sport for positive mental health, will the Minister outline the options open over the coming month? For those with loved ones in care homes, will a new testing and visitation policy be implemented? Where staff are redeployed, will the Minister outline what support will be offered? For those who have lost loved ones to covid-19, what specific mental health support will be offered? Students across the range of education need support, especially those in university. What extra support will be in place for them? I look forward to the Minister’s replies to those questions in her closing remarks.
We are only in November and we face a cruel, long winter. The public want to support the Government’s measures and see the back of the virus, but people also want reassurance that our nation’s mental health will not be put at risk. The years of underfunding of mental health leave us without much faith. We called for a  national wellbeing guarantee last month. The Government should have addressed that weeks ago. Now, it is crucial and I plead with the Minister to meet the sector properly and get a plan in place urgently.
It may feel impossible to hope on the edge of a precipice, as we are, but the kindness on display across the UK should bring hope to us all. We continue to extend the offer to work together through the crisis for all our communities. We just need the political will from the Government.

Nadine Dorries: One of the joys of being a Minister in Government is that we won an election and that gives us the right and the ability to decide policy. If the hon. Member for Tooting (Dr Allin-Khan) wishes to decide policy, the Labour party should try harder at the next election.
As we heard from so many hon. Members during the debate, the virus is a deadly adversary. The debate has been wide-ranging, and many points were raised. It is impossible to mention everybody who spoke, but there were several themes and I would like to group them. Obviously, because of my portfolio, I will start with mental health, which almost everybody mentioned.
We recognise that it is a difficult time for people and the immense strain that the pandemic and measures to contain it place on everyone’s lives. Recently, the president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists said that there were significant mental health consequences for people who contract covid and for the families of those who are affected or sadly lose their lives. He went on to say that mental health concerns as a result of lockdown were
“being weaponised by those with other political agendas”.
He added that there is increasing evidence that the virus directly attacks the central nervous system, which can affect mental wellbeing and mental health, let alone the post-traumatic stress that those who contract the virus and may end up on medical ventilation can experience.
The result is that there are two mental health stories to the pandemic. We know that people will suffer exacerbated mental health problems as a result of the pandemic and that people with existing mental health conditions and frontline workers are particularly susceptible. However, there is another side to the story, which is long covid: young people who contract covid and consequently suffer mental illness. In the words of Dr Adrian James, the president of the Royal College of Psychiatrists:
“We need… to wake up to the very serious mental health consequences for people who get coronavirus and for the families of those who are disabled or killed by the disease.”
We are absolutely committed to continuing our investment in expanding and transforming mental health services in England. That will amount to an additional £2.3 billion of funding a year in mental health services by 2023-24. We are doing our utmost to ensure that our mental health services are there for everyone who needs them during the pandemic—for patients and our NHS colleagues. Thanks to the ingenuity of so many, we worked hard to keep all mental health services fully functioning during the first peak, using technology when required. All mental health trusts have established 24/7 crisis phone lines where people who experience a  mental health crisis can access urgent support and advice. We have invested more than £10 million in supporting national and local mental health charities to continue their vital work in supporting people across the country.
It is a priority to keep services and support working and to provide full services throughout the winter months. I would encourage anyone who needs support to reach out for it so that the NHS can help them, just as we are together doing so much to protect the NHS. I would encourage everyone’s constituents to make use of the resources that are there and have been provided: for example, Every Mind Matters for frontline workers; online psychological first aid training has had 90,000 frontline worker users to date.
It is okay not to feel okay during this difficult time, and we will support everyone in getting the help they need. I am pleased to announce that the NHS will launch a major campaign to encourage people who may be struggling with common mental health illnesses to come forward for help. Talking therapy services will continue to be made available remotely, so that people can access help safely from home. While we know anecdotally that some people’s experiences of digital mental health services have been very positive, we also know that they do not work for everyone, particularly people with more serious mental health illnesses. The NHS will work to ensure that the option of face-to-face support is provided to people with serious mental health illnesses across all ages where it is clinically safe to do so, and people with serious mental health illnesses will continue to receive help from NHS volunteer responders to access essentials such as food and medication throughout the winter.
Overall, our response to the mental health impacts of the pandemic must be driven by the best possible evidence to help us access the data on the number of suicides. Public Health England is currently piloting a national surveillance system to monitor suspected suicide and self-harm by collecting data from local systems in near realtime. This will allow us to identify patterns of risk and inform national and local responses. I can also announce that we are developing a winter plan for wellbeing and mental health, and I hope to return to the House with more information on this shortly.
A number of Members have mentioned hospitals. It was lovely to hear my hon. Friend the Member for Warrington South (Andy Carter) talk about Warrington hospital, where I did indeed train as a nurse; I was there from 1975 until 1988, all those years ago. He spoke about the real pressures that hospitals are feeling at the moment, and while we have been having this debate the North West Ambulance Service has declared a major incident, owing to demand on ambulances tonight in the north-west of England due to covid. The pressures in Warrington hospital that my hon. Friend spoke about are being felt across the country.
We all stood and clapped for carers on a Thursday night during the first lockdown, and many of the comments tonight have talked about our frontline workers while, in the same speech, arguing against a second lockdown. What we are doing in arguing against a lockdown, or against the measures we are taking, is subjecting those frontline workers to the almost unimaginable and impossible stresses that they would have to experience, as they are in the north-west of England tonight. As someone said  to me before this debate, the eerie sound of ambulances and sirens is noticeably more common across London tonight than it has been over the past week. It is our frontline workers who are dealing with those blue lights as they go into the accident and emergency departments in our hospitals across the UK. It seems impossible that we can clap for workers during one lockdown, then argue against protecting them through a second lockdown, because that is what the principle is: to protect our NHS, and to protect our hospital workers.
The pathway through a pandemic is never straightforward, and we have learned so much about this virus during these past few months, not least—as I said a few moments ago—the fact that it leaves young people with long covid and attacks the central nervous system, which in itself creates mental health problems. I reiterate that there are two sides to the mental health coin when it comes to coronavirus, and we need to protect families and those who have loved ones in hospital or who may end up in hospital and lose their lives. Bereavement brings with it its own mental health issues. All of us are required to make difficult decisions and tough sacrifices to bring this virus under control. We must persevere as we work so hard on the long-term solutions that will see us through and allow us to come together once again, so that we can look after the people and communities that we love.
Question put and agreed to,
That this House has considered covid-19.

Business without Debate

Business of the House

Ordered,
That, at the sitting on Wednesday 4 November, notwithstanding the provisions of Standing Order No. 16(1) (Proceedings under an Act or on European Union documents), debate on the Motions in the name of Edward Argar relating to the draft Blood Safety and Quality (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020, the draft Human Fertilisation and Embryology (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020, the draft Human Tissue (Quality and Safety for Human Application) (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020 and the draft Quality and Safety of Organs Intended for Transplantation (Amendment) (EU Exit) Regulations 2020 may continue for up to three hours after the commencement of proceedings on the first such Motion; the Speaker shall then put forthwith the Questions necessary to dispose of each such Motion; proceedings may be entered upon, though opposed, after the moment of interruption; and Standing Order No. 41A (Deferred divisions) shall not apply.—(James Morris.)

Covid-19: Support for Rugby League

Motion made, and Question proposed, That this House do now adjourn.—(James Morris.)

Yvette Cooper: It is good to see you in the Chair for this debate, Mr Speaker; I know how strongly you have always supported rugby league and its impact on our communities. This morning, we heard that Castleford Tigers’ next two super league matches have been called off because more of the players have tested positive for covid. I know that you and other Members of the House will join me in wishing those players, as well as the staff who have been affected, a speedy recovery. It is another reminder of the continued impact of covid on the sport, on our rugby league clubs, on local jobs and on our communities.
This is a tough time for everyone. In all the towns and cities in Yorkshire, the Humber and the north-west, where rugby league is strong, cases have been going up in local hospitals and jobs have been hit in our local economies for some time. I called this debate to talk about the impact of covid on rugby league and the way in which it is being hit; why rugby league now needs a new support plan, drawn up with the Government, to support our clubs and the sport through these difficult times; and why it matters so much for our towns and our communities.
We should never underestimate the importance of rugby league for us in Castleford. In normal times, the whole town would turn out to watch the match, but the clubs would also do so much to support the community. A good friend of mine, who has been a lifelong Castleford Tigers fan, was very ill a few years ago: he was starting chemotherapy and having a difficult time. Word got round and he had a knock on the door—and there was Jake Webster, one of our star players from that year and part of the team that had won the 2017 League Leaders’ Shield. Someone had spoken to him and he turned up to wish my friend well and give him a shirt as a gift.
That is not an unusual story. The players supporting the fans, the fans supporting the players, that close relationship across the town—that is rugby league values. Before covid, JT or Tiger Man, the Castleford Tigers mascots, could be found at almost every community event, leading the Castleford Heritage Trust on a May day parade or joining a Macmillan coffee morning. That is rugby league values.
The club, the team and the foundation have been supporting men’s health, from Movember to mental health; setting up a great women’s team, who have been really going from strength to strength; working with our local Morrisons last week to provide holiday meals for children who went along to their half-term session, inspired by Marcus Rashford; and working with local schools as the inspiration for our school rugby league teams, who have done so well each year in the national contests. The Castleford Tigers Foundation launched a jobs and training programme this summer to help people who are unemployed to find jobs.
It is a family game as well. From when they were tiny babies and toddlers, we have taken our kids to the Castleford match—something that Ed would never have done for football. We always had to make sure that we were sitting right at the back, just in front of the radio  commentators, so that if we were distracted by having to watch the children and stop them going up and down the steps, we could still listen to the commentators and find out what was going on in the match.
It can be seen right across the community. Whole families turn out for Castleford Tigers and rugby league clubs like it across the country to support their communities —young and old, supporting everybody.

Andy Carter: Does the right hon. Lady agree that programmes such as the one at Warrington Wolves, which support children in alternative provision—children who cannot go to mainstream schools, but can get involved with rugby and rugby league—are the sorts of things in a community that really makes a difference to young children?

Yvette Cooper: I agree; this is immensely important. The players in an elite sport are fantastic role models for young people and children, and the way in which they use that power in the community to work with schools and different community groups and organisations has a huge impact on young people’s futures. That is really important. Sometimes people say, “Oh, rugby league—it’s just about your heritage.” No, it is not. This is about our future. Yes, we are proud of our rugby league history, but it also about saying, “See this? This is part of our future. This is part of the next generation. This is part of inspiring young people.”
A Manchester Met report last year found that the economic impact of English rugby league clubs and events is over £140 million and the social impact—the impact on aspirations and on community cohesion—is over £180 million. When you live in a rugby league town, you cannot put a value on it, but you can feel it—you know it. If something like that is lost, it cannot be reinvented. That is why it is so important to support our rugby league clubs.

Charlotte Nichols: I thank my right hon. Friend for securing this important debate. With the rugby league world cup taking place next year—including the first ever physical disability rugby league world cup, which will be hosted in Warrington—does she agree that the financial package of support for rugby league is so important not only for proud rugby league communities like our own, but for the entire country because of the tourism revenue that will be generated as a result?

Yvette Cooper: My hon. Friend is exactly right, and I know that she is a strong supporter of the role that her local club is playing and the importance of having the world cup in Warrington. It is about the impact on the economy, but it is also about the inspirational impact on generations of young people getting involved in rugby league. That is why it is so crucial that we support the sport through and are able to support the world cup as well.

Jim Shannon: I congratulate the right hon. Lady on securing this debate. Sport is important for all of us as nations across the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Rugby was my game at school—not rugby league, but rugby union. None the less, I just want to say how important it is.  Northern Ireland has set aside some money for sporting clubs already, but without any fans at the matches, the £16 million loan for rugby league is not enough. Does the right hon. Lady feel that there is chance for the Minister to step up to the plate and do more?

Yvette Cooper: I agree, and in the end that was the purpose of calling for this debate. We welcome the loans that the Government provided earlier in the year, the work that was done between the Government and the RFL, and the support for our clubs. That has been really important, but our rugby league clubs are under huge pressure now and they need more support. We need a new action plan going forward; the bills still have to be paid.

Tracy Brabin: My right hon. Friend is making a fantastic case for rugby clubs up and down the country. Castleford Tigers are fantastic. In my constituency we have the Batley Bulldogs, and we have seen the work that they are doing at the heart of our community during the pandemic. Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is quite simple—we could turn the £16 million loan into a grant, and we would save the clubs overnight?

Yvette Cooper: My hon. Friend is right, because the challenge is that the loans need to be repaid. The expectation has been that they need to start being repaid next year. Well, we are not through the covid crisis yet. We still do not have the supporters back in the grounds and there are still huge financial pressures on our clubs. It is simply not realistic, and not good for the sport or our communities, to insist on those loans being paid back. The point that she makes about grants is exactly one of the things that I want the Government to consider.

Rachael Maskell: I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for securing today’s debate. York City Knights have worked so hard to climb to third in the championship and should be entering the new York community stadium, but without the finances behind them and without being able to open their ground to fans, they may never enter the stadium. Will the Minister seriously look not only at moving loans to grants, but sufficiency in those grants?

Yvette Cooper: My hon. Friend is exactly right, because nobody could have expected what was going to happen with covid, but we cannot let it do huge long-term damage to such crucial community sports and the work they do in the communities.
The bills still have to be paid this year. The crowds are not there, but millions of pounds in ticket revenues have been lost—about £2 million a week, including Super League and RFL. All the clubs have made huge savings. They have drawn down rainy day funds and money that they had put by. Staff and players have taken pay cuts. Contractors have gone. Incredibly reluctantly, jobs have been cut. They have drawn on furlough and other support and whatever they can.
In the summer, the clubs got the matches up and running, even though the supporters could not be there, and that has brought great joy to fans being able to watch the matches again, but also considerable costs,  because the clubs could not use furlough for the staff who were back even though they were not getting the income from the tickets to pay for them. They pay out thousands of pounds every single week on getting players and other staff tested for covid. When a club gets a positive test—Castleford has just had a run on them—it then has to do another round of tests as well. Castleford Tigers has been spending over £20,000 extra a month, just to get those covid tests done to try to keep the game as safe as possible. The same applies across all our clubs.
The fans have been incredible. So many season ticket holders who were offered refunds said the club should keep the money this year. In an area like ours, where people feel under considerable financial pressure, that is a really big deal and shows their commitment to supporting the club. Hundreds of thousands of pounds has been lost by every club—from bars, events, corporate hospitality and things such as bonfire nights and beer festivals.

Marie Rimmer: I thank my right hon. Friend for securing this important debate. It is wonderful to hear the contributions, and I notice the gender on the Opposition Benches, which is significant.

Jim Shannon: There is still one man here.

Marie Rimmer: Yes, Jim.

Lindsay Hoyle: On a point of order, these are all rugby league club MPs. Come on, Marie Rimmer.

Marie Rimmer: It is wonderful to hear the debate, but these are very sad times. For clubs such as St Helens, it is different. Rugby league is a part of the business. The club is a major employer in my constituency, and it is the largest hospitality hub for the local community, whether that is weddings, funerals or parties—you name it, it goes on at the Saints stadium. Does my right hon. Friend agree that the Government’s hospitality support scheme needs to recognise that businesses can be across different sectors? We have a hospitality business that is quite separate, but is part of the rugby club. Does my right hon. Friend agree with that?

Lindsay Hoyle: Just to say, I think you had a funeral Friday night when St Helens played Wigan with the defeat they had.

Yvette Cooper: Mr Speaker, I think you and I first talked about the Castleford-Warrington matches 20 years ago. My hon. Friend is exactly right. I know that both my hon. Friend the Member for St Helens North (Conor McGinn) and my hon. Friend the Member for St Helens South and Whiston (Ms Rimmer) have been strongly supporting St Helens, which is under particular pressure as well. There is a challenge where the clubs are open for the sport but closed to supporters, and that means closed to hospitality as well. They are closed to all the people who would have come and used the bars or bought food or used the clubs for events, yet they are not covered by some of the hospitality industry support. They could not get the 15% VAT relief. They could not get the closed job support scheme funding, even though  the doors to supporters were closed. I think St Helens has powerfully made the case, as has my hon. Friend, as to why more action is needed to support these crucial local employers who play such an important role in the local economy.
Retail and merchandise sales have also been hit this year. Sponsorship next year becomes a challenge after the year that we have had, and so too does the sheer uncertainty of nobody knowing when the supporters can get safely back into the grounds or when ticket sales can safely restart. That makes it difficult to sell season tickets, which would have provided crucial revenue for our clubs in the run-up to Christmas. So again, the clubs are seeing the bills stacking up and the revenue not coming in. There is huge uncertainty. These clubs are at the heart of our communities, and they play such an important role. We need to continue to support them into the future.
I welcome the Minister meeting me over the last few weeks to talk not just about Castleford Tigers but about rugby league clubs more widely. I know that he has shown a really strong interest in this. I know, too, that some of these are issues that he needs to keep pressing the Treasury on, and we need to keep pressing the Treasury on them as well, but we also have to be blunt about this. The loans that the Government have provided were fine for the first 12 weeks. Many clubs had made savings and done a huge amount of work, and they have been resilient and got themselves through the difficult times, but this is not going to be enough to ensure that they can stay strong through into next year, through from 125th anniversary year into world cup year. We need our clubs to stay strong for our local communities, where they play such a vital role.
I ask the Government to look at drawing up a new winter plan and a new plan for next year—a joint plan between the Government and rugby league. It should be a plan that recognises the pressures from the Sky clawback, from covid testing, from the lack of hospitality income and from having done so much work this year. The Government need to provide a guarantee that none of our important rugby league clubs will go under because of covid. We need a plan for getting supporters safely back in the spring. We need a plan that recognises the unusual situation that the clubs are in, without hospitality income but not being covered by hospitality support, and a plan that looks at different ways to support them through the winter by looking at grants and not just loans.
The plan could include providing VAT relief on season tickets; underwriting an insurance arrangement that could support season ticket refunds, should they be needed if things are difficult next year; including working staff in the job support scheme; funding the covid tests that clubs need to keep going; providing a national insurance holiday; and looking at the Sky clawback. It could include all kinds of different things. I am just suggesting different measures that the Government could consider, but they must work with rugby league to put in place a financial support plan to ensure that our clubs can keep going and be strong for the future.
The plan must recognise the role that the clubs play in our communities in pulling people together, as well as the impact on health, wellbeing and families. We must also recognise that they give us something to look forward to, at a time when, to be honest, everybody  needs something to look forward to—be it Christmas, a daughter’s wedding or a mum’s 60th. Those are the things that people want to look forward to at the moment, but they are finding it hard to do so. As one friend said, “For me, it’s being able to look forward to the Cas match at the end of the week.” We need to have those things that people look forward to, that bring people together and that become the heart of the community. When you walk through Castleford town centre, you find all the flowerbeds painted in black and amber, as a tribute to the town.
This year is the 125th anniversary of the founding of the Northern Rugby Football Union, which became the rugby league, but instead of a celebration, there have been tough times. The Minister will know from earlier debates how much anger and frustration there has been across the north about what happened with the tier 2 and tier 3 job support, and about the fact that the furlough scheme was not extended until the whole country including the south was covered. I know that that is not his responsibility, but he will know that it is the backdrop to the real concern that is felt across the north. He will also know, therefore, how important it is for the Government to show that they understand how important rugby league is across the north, particularly across Yorkshire and the Humber and across the north-west, and how important it is to our northern towns that we keep rugby league strong. Rugby league has been there for us and for our communities, and we want to be there for rugby league and to ensure that it has a strong future. I urge the Government to work with us, with the rugby league clubs and with the RFL to ensure that there is a strong plan for the future.

Lindsay Hoyle: In welcoming the Sports Minister, let me say that we have had a very passionate debate and I am sure that he will want to take on board the comments, because there is no greater sport than rugby league. We have the world cup next year, and I am sure the Minister will want to respond accordingly.

Nigel Huddleston: Thank you, Mr Speaker. I think I heard that quite clearly!
I thank the right hon. Member for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Yvette Cooper) for tabling the topic for this debate, and I thank all those who have participated in it. I certainly noted the gender balance this evening, and it speaks volumes about rugby. I know how deeply she feels about the welfare of this sport and the communities it serves, as we have discussed this matter on many occasions, as indeed have you and I, Mr Speaker. Rugby league clubs such as Castleford Tigers and Warrington Wolves, and others, are at the heart of their local communities and it is vital that they are protected. The Tigers are rightly a source of great pride to the town and bring the whole Castleford community together. May I also take the opportunity to join the right hon. Lady in sending my best wishes for a speedy recovery to the players and others recovering from coronavirus in her community?
I know that Castleford without its rugby team would be unimaginable and that rugby league clubs are vital to their towns right across the country, as the right hon. Lady articulated so eloquently. That is why in May  rugby league received a £16 million support package from the Government to safeguard the immediate future of the sport and the communities it serves—that was long before any other support package for any other sport, in recognition of that important contribution. These loans were administered by the Rugby Football League, and we have been working with it and Sport England to ensure that support is provided to those who need it, including the Castleford Tigers. The Government have also supported rugby league through more than £11 million of Sport England funding over the 2017 to 2021 funding period, as well as by investing in hosting the rugby league world cup in 2021, which I know will be a fantastic event—we are all looking forward to it.
The Government recognise the impact that covid-19 is having across the economy and in particular on the sporting sector. Clearly, the Prime Minister’s announcement on Saturday of the new national restrictions, although necessary to prevent the continued spread of the virus, will have further impacts on sport. However, as he announced, elite sport will be able to continue, behind closed doors, over the next four weeks of increased restrictions, and that is further testament to the Government’s support for elite sport. It will not only enable vital broadcast revenue to flow into sports, but ensure that sport continues to bring joy to millions of fans. The month-long extension to the current furlough scheme will benefit clubs that have had to delay the resumption of matches, while ensuring that their talented players and staff are assisted through these challenging times. In addition to the bespoke support for rugby league, Sport England’s community emergency fund has provided £210 million directly to support community sport clubs and exercise centres through this pandemic.
More widely, the Government have, of course, provided an unprecedented support package for businesses, through tax reliefs, cash grants, employee wage support and many other measures, which many sport clubs have benefited from. However, I recognise and acknowledge that, as the right hon. Lady and others have said, sports clubs, and rugby clubs in particular, are about more than just sport. They often rely on many other sources of revenue, and they have been able to take advantage of some but not necessarily all Government support measures.
As the right hon. Lady will be aware, one key area of focus now is supporting organisations in the sporting sector affected by the decision not to allow spectators in from 1 October as originally planned. The Prime Minister announced on 22 September that sporting events would not be able to take place with socially distanced crowds from 1 October as planned. Although that was obviously disappointing, it was necessary in order to stop the spread of covid-19. The Department has been working with colleagues in the Treasury and with the sports sector to assess the scale of support required and the timescales within which it is needed. That has included further work with the RFL to understand the challenges for rugby league as we head into the forthcoming winter. We are working with the Treasury on those proposals now, and we hope to be able to announce the outcome of these discussions shortly.

Andy Carter: I pay tribute to the fantastic speech made by the right hon. Member for Castleford Tigers this evening. Like her, I look at the welcome support  that the Government have given to rugby league clubs. However, one thing that would be really helpful would be some indication of the criteria under which clubs would be able to welcome back spectators into their grounds. That would help them to plan and think about the future, rather than just considering what they cannot do at the moment.

Nigel Huddleston: Of course, we all want to get fans back into stadia as soon as possible, but only when it is safe to do so. I will mention more about that later in my speech and will be happy to have a follow-up conversation with my hon. Friend.
I know that the right hon. Member for Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford has previously suggested tax breaks and other measures, particularly business rates holidays. I am happy to say that clubs already benefit from a business rate holiday through to March 2021, which should help them through the winter. We are in conversations with the Treasury and others about other measures that she has suggested.
Rugby—both league and the other one—has many, many fans right across the country and many stakeholders, including in this place. I was pleased to learn from the right hon. Lady that my Department and the team there, who work so hard, have been engaging with many organisations and bodies, including the all-party parliamentary group on rugby league and many other Members in this place. As I said, there are many stakeholders. The RFL in particular has been a valued partner of the Government in the application of the guidance and its development, which has enabled the return of elite sporting competition. I am also grateful to the RFL for the successful delivery of the restarted super league behind closed doors, securing broadcast revenue that will benefit the whole game at this challenging time.
As I said before, we know that the decision not to reopen stadia to spectators on 1 October was immensely disappointing, particularly following successful pilots through August and September. I am grateful to the clubs that have piloted the return of spectators so far. Work continues at pace to find solutions that will allow crowds safely back into stadia as soon as possible. The Government will continue to work closely with the Sports Grounds Safety Authority and a whole range of sports to understand the latest thinking that might  allow spectators to return. That includes the creation of a new sports technology innovation group of sporting bodies and health experts to analyse new technologies that will support that. Work continues at pace to find solutions that will allow crowds safely back, but spectators will return to stadia only when it is safe to do so. We will keep the situation under continual review.
As the right hon. Lady said, rugby has a rich heritage in its heartlands and a proud history stretching back over 100 years. But as has been mentioned, there is also an exciting future. We know that the importance of the professional game has come into even more focus given that next year’s rugby league world cup is being hosted on these shores, and the Government are firmly committed to delivering a successful world cup tournament in 2021. Next year’s world cup will bring additional significant exposure on free-to-air TV; it will also be the first time that the men’s, women’s and wheelchair tournaments take place at the same time, as the hon. Member for Warrington North (Charlotte Nichols) mentioned. It will be a great opportunity to showcase the game and encourage even more people to get involved in this wonderful sport. It will demonstrate to the world, once again, this country’s skill in hosting world class tournaments and events and showcase that Britain is open for business and a bit of fun.
We can but hope that the world cup will be a global celebration of humanity at a time when we trust that the worst of the current crisis will be behind us. Once again, I thank the right hon. Lady for securing this debate tonight, to highlight the importance of rugby league and the vital role that it plays in our communities. I hear, as I am sure does the Treasury, all the requests and points made in this evening’s debate. The support secured already for rugby league was a reflection of the enormous social and economic contribution that rugby league clubs make to their communities; the very real threat to the whole sport earlier this year and indeed currently; and the special circumstances of hosting the 2021 rugby league world cup.
As I have said before, the events of recent months have shown that the impact of sports clubs reaches beyond sport itself; they have proved themselves to be the bedrocks of their communities during this pandemic. We will do what we can to ensure that they continue to be so long into the future.
Question put and agreed to.
10.29 pm
House adjourned.